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FINAL+2MIL
MIA
52-48
13
MIL
62-37
American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
36,451 attended
Line movement
200 snapshots
MIL spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
MIL no-vig %
54.2%
open 54.2%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.6%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
57.5%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.5%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.3%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.74 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-131
Close price
-131
Open no-vig
54.2%
Close no-vig
54.2%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at MIL?
- The model favors MIL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Player projections
MIL vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
132
projections · 115 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL9.4± 2.7high
- Eury PerezMIA6.2± 2.9high
- Kyle HarrisonMIL6.2± 4.5medium
Hits
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.2± 1.0high
- Otto LopezMIA1.1± 1.1high
- Jake BauersMIL1.1± 0.7high
Total bases
- Kyle StowersMIA2.1± 2.4high
- Jake BauersMIL2.0± 1.7high
- Jackson ChourioMIL1.9± 1.9high
RBIs
- Luis LaraMIL0.8± 1.3high
- Owen CaissieMIA0.7± 1.1high
- Brice TurangMIL0.7± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Janson JunkMIA2.8± 3.5medium
- Robert GasserMIL2.5± 3.1low
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA2.3± 1.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
MIL
.728
OPS
.719
.734
.324
OBP
.318
▶.336
4.34
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.93
4.00
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.45
1.24
WHIP
1.30
▶1.15
8.6
K / 9
8.5
▶9.9
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
MIL wins
MIA 1 · MIL 3 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked MIL +8pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
