MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PIT

LAD

43-25

PIT

35-33

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

30,626 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

PIT no-vig %

36.4%

open 37.8% · -1.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
37.5%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
33.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.3pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

LAD

no live price

PIT

★ best

+214DraftKings

edge +9.3pp · implied 29.9%

Book	LAD	PIT	Best edge
DraftKings	-293	+214★	+9.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PIT vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.4± 2.9low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.2± 1.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.1± 0.7high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.9± 1.7high
Max MuncyLAD
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Ryan WardLAD
0.9± 1.7low
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.8± 1.1high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 3.0low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Jared JonesPIT
3.0± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

PIT

.787

OPS

◀

.717

.736

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.334

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.95

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.26

1.09

WHIP

◀

1.31

9.1

K / 9

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

LAD 8 · PIT 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	2	8
PIT	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	5	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.299	5	1	1	2	1	0	2
A. PagesCF	.281	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
F. Freeman1B	.283	4	2	1	0	0	1	0
M. BettsSS	.185	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.270	3	2	1	1	0	1	1
K. TuckerRF	.237	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
R. WardLF	.267	3	1	1	4	1	0	1
D. RushingC	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Freeland2B	.242	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. CallLF	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. RojasSS	.255	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	8	8	8	2	4	8

Player

.299

.281

.283

.185

.270

.237

.267

.275

.242

.256

.255

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	6.2	6	4	3	3	6	102
A. VesiaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	9
J. DreyerRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	16
K. HurtRP	0.1	3	4	4	2	0	20
Team	8.0	11	9	8	5	7	147

Player

S. OhtaniDH

6.2

102

A. VesiaRP

0.1

J. DreyerRP

0.2

K. HurtRP

0.1

Team

8.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Horwitz1B	.289	5	1	2	2	1	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.249	4	1	1	2	0	1	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.267	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. O'HearnRF	.283	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. Gonzales3B	.300	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
E. RodriguezC	.217	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.333	2	3	2	4	2	2	0
J. MangumLF	.296	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.229	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
R. Flores Jr.C	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. CookRF	.190	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	9	11	8	3	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JonesSP	4.0	3	2	2	1	4	75
C. MlodzinskiSP	3.2	3	4	4	3	3	76
E. SiskRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	8
G. SotoRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	8
Team	9.0	8	8	8	4	8	167

Team

LAD

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

PIT vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.