MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

BOS

27-38

39-25

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

15,503 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

50.1%

open 51.1% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.1%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
65.5%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.6%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.4%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.97

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

50.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.6pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

BOS

★ best

+364DraftKings

edge +11.6pp · implied 20.3%

no live price

Book	BOS	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	+364★	-561	+11.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.7low

Hits

Willson ContrerasBOS
1.4± 1.3high
Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.3high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
3.0± 3.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.0± 2.5high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.9± 1.1high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.5± 2.6low
Steven MatzTB
2.5± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

.698

OPS

.717

▶

.720

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.336

3.97

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

3.90

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.96

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

BOS 3 · TB 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3
TB	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF	.209	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.281	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.277	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.288	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. GasperC	.284	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.193	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.271	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.224	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
Team		33	3	6	3	0	0	2

Player

.209

.281

.277

.288

.236

.284

.193

.271

.224

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. TolleSP	6.0	9	4	4	1	3	94
T. KahnleRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	15
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	8.0	12	4	4	1	5	126

Player

P. TolleSP

6.0

T. KahnleRP

1.0

G. WhitlockRP

1.0

Team

8.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.325	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Caminero3B	.277	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. ViladeRF	.309	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
A. SlaterRF	.286	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.187	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.263	4	2	2	1	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.250	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.237	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
T. WallsSS	.203	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	12	4	0	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	7.0	6	3	3	0	2	73
K. KellyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
B. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	6	3	3	0	2	92

Team

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TB vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TB vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.