MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TB

BOS

27-37

38-25

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

14,579 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

TB no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.4%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
66.3%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
66.1%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.3pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

BOS

no live price

★ best

-128DraftKings

edge +16.3pp · implied 52.8%

Book	BOS	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	-101	-128★	+16.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.7low

Hits

Willson ContrerasBOS
1.4± 1.3high
Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.3high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
3.0± 3.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.0± 2.5high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.9± 1.1high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.5± 2.6low
Steven MatzTB
2.5± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

.698

OPS

.717

▶

.720

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.336

3.97

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

3.90

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.96

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

BOS 1 · TB 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
TB	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF	.208	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. RafaelaCF	.286	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. AbreuRF	.278	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. Contreras1B	.294	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. GasperC	.300	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin3B	.190	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Mayer2B	.222	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.209	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.253	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	1	4	1	1	1	10

Player

.208

.286

.278

.294

.300

.190

.258

.222

.209

.253

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. EarlySP	4.2	5	2	2	4	6	96
T. GuerreroRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	16
G. WeissertRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	17
D. CoulombeRP	1.0	0	1	1	2	0	22
A. GamboaRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	6
Team	8.0	7	3	3	7	10	157

Player

4.2

1.1

0.1

1.0

0.2

Team

8.0

157

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.325	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
A. SlaterRF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.277	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
R. ViladeRF	.290	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Aranda1B	.270	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. WallsSS	.203	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. FortesC	.242	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.185	2	0	1	0	0	2	1
R. Palacios2B	.237	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SimpsonLF	.276	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.176	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		29	3	7	3	1	7	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SeymourRP	4.0	1	1	1	1	5	55
C. LeguminaRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	12
C. BooserRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	10
K. KellyRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	16
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
B. BakerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	4	1	1	1	10	118

Team

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TB vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TB vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.