Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at TOR?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+17TOR

CHI

4-7

6885

TOR

6-5

WNBASun, Jun 7FinalSeriesTOR leads series 2-0VegasTOR -3.5

CHI · top performer

Azura Stevens

F · #30

13.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Brittney Sykes

G · #20

16.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ TOR

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. StevensF · #30	24	18	8-15	0-4	2-2	-11	10	0
K. CardosoC · #10	23	9	2-6	—	5-8	-15	8	2
S. DigginsG · #4	27	7	2-8	0-2	3-4	-14	1	3
R. BanhamG · #24	22	3	1-5	1-5	—	-11	2	1
J. SheldonG · #0	21	10	4-7	2-2	—	-7	3	2
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	22	4	0-4	—	4-8	-4	3	2
N. CloudG · #9	27	6	2-7	1-3	1-2	-6	4	3
S. PoffenbargerG · #6	8	0	0-3	0-3	—	-2	3	1
S. TaylorG · #12	8	0	0-2	0-2	—	-8	0	0
G. JaquezG · #11	19	11	4-8	2-4	1-2	-7	3	1
Team		68	23-65	6-25	16-26		37	15
DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. SaballyF · #8	25	15	7-14	0-1	1-2	+16	6	1
L. JuskaiteF · #2	22	10	2-10	0-3	6-7	+7	4	1
B. SykesG · #20	30	25	9-23	0-3	7-9	+17	7	3
M. MabreyG · #3	30	9	3-9	1-5	2-2	+15	4	6
J. AllemandG · #22	26	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	+16	6	3
Bench
I. HarrisonF · #21	17	14	6-9	2-2	0-1	+15	6	2
M. CondeF · #10	24	5	2-8	1-5	—	+4	6	2
T. KeyF · #7	12	1	—	—	1-2	-4	4	0
K. NurseG · #11	9	2	0-2	0-2	2-2	-1	1	0
T. PouyeG · #32	3	0	—	—	—	0	0	1
Team		85	30-77	4-22	21-27		44	19
DNP: T. Fagbenle, K. Rice

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

23-65

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

30-77

FG %

6-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-22

16-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 2-0

May 28

TOR111@

CHI104

Jun 7

CHI68@

TOR85today

Sep 23

TOR@

CHIupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -3.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

175.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+13642%

TOR-16262%

15· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -3.5↗SpreadBet TOR -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

+1.0 since open

Total

175.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CHI 85-68. B. Sykes paced them with 25 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST. TOR outscored the other side 29-15 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 24 REB · 8 AST

GS 24

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST

GS 10

TORstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 48

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 17 REB · 5 AST

GS 16

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	15	18	20	15	68
TOR	29	19	22	15	85

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · TOR won 3

Stevens 8

Sabally 10

Sheldon 6

Sykes 5

Stevens 5

Sykes 13

Sheldon 4

Mabrey 4

CHI

TOR

Shooting comparison

CHI

TOR

35%

23-65

39%

30-77

24%

6-25

3PT

18%

4-22

62%

16-26

78%

21-27

Play-by-play · 457 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 68·TOR 85
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 68·TOR 85
Q4·9.3
Teonni Key defensive rebound
CHI 68·TOR 85
Q4·11.8
Saylor Poffenbarger misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHI 68·TOR 85
Q4·27.6
Rachel Banham defensive rebound
CHI 68·TOR 85
Q4·31.0
Kia Nurse misses 27-foot three point jumper
CHI 68·TOR 85
Q4·44.5
Rachel Banham bad pass turnover (Teonni Key steals)
·
CHI 68·TOR 85
Q4·58.9
Marina Mabrey makes 3-foot layup (Tima Pouye assists)
·
CHI 68·TOR 85
Q4·1:09
Sydney Taylor enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
CHI 68·TOR 83
Q4·1:09
Jacy Sheldon out of bounds bad pass turnover
CHI 68·TOR 83
Q4·1:16
Marina Mabrey bad pass turnover (Jacy Sheldon steals)
·
CHI 68·TOR 83
Q4·1:25
Maria Conde defensive rebound
CHI 68·TOR 83
Q4·1:29
Saylor Poffenbarger misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 68·TOR 83
Q4·1:39
Tima Pouye out of bounds bad pass turnover
CHI 68·TOR 83
Q4·1:49
Jacy Sheldon makes 1-foot layup (Rachel Banham assists)
·
CHI 68·TOR 83
Q4·2:01
Saylor Poffenbarger defensive rebound
CHI 66·TOR 83
Q4·2:04
Maria Conde misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHI 66·TOR 83
Q4·2:15
Kia Nurse defensive rebound
CHI 66·TOR 83
Q4·2:21
Rachel Banham misses 25-foot running jump shot
CHI 66·TOR 83
Q4·2:25
Natasha Cloud defensive rebound
CHI 66·TOR 83
Q4·2:27
Teonni Key misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 66·TOR 83
Q4·2:27
Teonni Key makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 66·TOR 83
Q4·2:27
Saylor Poffenbarger personal foul
CHI 66·TOR 82
Q4·2:45
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 66·TOR 82
Q4·2:45
Sky offensive team rebound
CHI 65·TOR 82
Q4·2:45
Natasha Cloud misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 65·TOR 82
Q4·2:45
Kia Nurse shooting foul
CHI 65·TOR 82
Q4·2:54
Saylor Poffenbarger defensive rebound
CHI 65·TOR 82
Q4·2:58
Maria Conde misses 13-foot two point shot
CHI 65·TOR 82
Q4·3:15
Saylor Poffenbarger enters the game for Gabriela Jaquez
·
CHI 65·TOR 82

Betting line

TOR -3.5·O/U 175.5·CHI +136/TOR -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

oronto Tempo held off Chicago Sky, 85–68.

TOR -3.5 cashed (won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 175.5 by 22.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CHI

TOR

eFG%

shooting

40.0%

41.6%

TOV%

ball control

17.3%

9.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

17.5%

26.8%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

24.6%

27.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Nyara SaballyTOR · F
ORB%.10991
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

75.0%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
76.6%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
78.8%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
77.7%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.97

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-120

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at TOR?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.3pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

CHI

no live price

TOR

★ best

-162DraftKings

edge +14.3pp · implied 59.3%

Book	CHI	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	+136	-162★	+14.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 75 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
23.1± 13.1high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium
Sydney TaylorCHI
16.8± 7.2high

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
8.0± 3.0high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium

Assists

Julie AllemandTOR
6.4± 3.6high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.1± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.5± 1.1high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Elizabeth WilliamsCHI
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 1.0high
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.1± 1.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Chicago SkyToronto Tempo

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Fire72Sparks89Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop