MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CHC

26-39

CHC

34-31

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 973 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

39,248 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 0.0 · +8.0

CHC no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
52.9%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.8%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.2%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.79

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

42.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.1pp

best edge · CHC · DraftKings

no live price

CHC

★ best

+157DraftKings

edge +15.1pp · implied 36.6%

Book	SF	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	-208	+157★	+15.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 2.2low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.5± 4.4low
Trevor McDonaldSF
5.2± 2.2low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.8± 1.6high
Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 1.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.3± 1.0high

Total bases

Ian HappCHC
2.7± 2.6high
Willy AdamesSF
2.7± 3.2high
Casey SchmittSF
2.6± 3.2high

RBIs

Ian HappCHC
1.1± 1.8high
Matt ChapmanSF
1.1± 2.4high
Willy AdamesSF
0.9± 1.6high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonCHC
3.4± 3.0low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.3± 3.9low
Adrian HouserSF
3.2± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

SF 2 · CHC 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
SF	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. SchmittDH	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.3
R. Devers1B	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	4.2
L. Arraez2B	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	1	5.0
W. AdamesSS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	11.1
J. LeeRF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0	38.4
B. EldridgeDH	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2	11.9
M. Chapman3B	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	7.6
E. HaaseC	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	26.4
D. GilbertCF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	5.7
V. BericotoRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	38.0

Team	5-34	34	2	5	2	1	3	11	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

C. SchmittDH

0-4

8.3

R. Devers1B

1-4

4.2

L. Arraez2B

1-5

5.0

W. AdamesSS

0-4

11.1

J. LeeRF

2-4

38.4

B. EldridgeDH

1-4

11.9

M. Chapman3B

0-1

7.6

E. HaaseC

0-4

26.4

D. GilbertCF

0-3

5.7

V. BericotoRF

0-1

38.0

Team

5-34

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
L. RouppSP	5.2	3	1	1	3	5	1	4.1
C. KilianRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	2.7
E. MillerRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	0	5.8
K. WinnRP	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	29.5

Team	9.0	8	3	2	4	8	2	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

L. RouppSP

5.2

4.1

C. KilianRP

1.0

2.7

E. MillerRP

0.2

5.8

K. WinnRP

1.2

29.5

Team

9.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	4-5	5	2	4	2	2	0	0	59.3
M. ConfortoDH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	8.3
M. Busch1B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	1	2	15.4
A. Bregman3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	20.7
I. HappLF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	4.6
S. SuzukiRF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	3.2
N. Hoerner2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
P. Ramirez2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	13.4
C. KellyC	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	9.3
M. BallesterosDH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.8

Team	8-34	34	3	8	2	2	4	8	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
B. BrownRP	5.1	1	0	0	1	5	0	15.7
C. ThielbarRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	1	15.9
J. WebbRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5.9
D. PalenciaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	31.7
R. RolisonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	14.3
Team	10.0	5	2	2	3	11	1	—

Team

CHC