MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIA

MIA

29-34

WSH

31-32

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 975 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

16,695 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.5 · -0.5

WSH no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.0%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
50.7%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.8%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.4%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.9low
Cade CavalliWSH
6.1± 4.1low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.5± 2.8low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 1.4high
James WoodWSH
1.2± 1.3high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

James WoodWSH
2.4± 2.7high
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.2± 2.9high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.9± 1.7high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.2± 2.0high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.9± 1.4high
Curtis MeadWSH
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.7± 3.7low
Zack LittellWSH
2.8± 3.3low
Miles MikolasWSH
2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 4 · WSH 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
WSH	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
H. HernandezLF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	2	8.1
O. LopezSS	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	1	9.8
K. StowersLF	1-5	5	0	1	1	0	0	2	10.7
X. Edwards2B	2-5	5	0	2	0	0	0	1	11.8
C. Morel1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	4.4
E. RuizRF	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	24.7
C. Norby1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1.1
J. Sanoja3B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	7.7
J. MackC	2-3	3	0	2	2	0	1	0	32.9
L. HicksC	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	28.8
J. MarseeCF	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	2	0	20.1
O. CaissieRF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	15.1
Team	10-36	36	4	10	4	1	8	11	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

H. HernandezLF

1-4

8.1

O. LopezSS

1-5

9.8

K. StowersLF

1-5

10.7

X. Edwards2B

2-5

11.8

C. Morel1B

1-2

4.4

E. RuizRF

1-2

24.7

C. Norby1B

0-1

1.1

J. Sanoja3B

0-5

7.7

J. MackC

2-3

32.9

L. HicksC

0-1

28.8

J. MarseeCF

1-1

20.1

O. CaissieRF

0-2

15.1

Team

10-36

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
M. MeyerSP	7.0	2	1	1	2	7	0	0.8
C. FaucherRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2.9
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	3.4
Team	9.0	3	1	1	3	9	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

M. MeyerSP

7.0

0.8

C. FaucherRP

1.0

2.9

P. FairbanksRP

1.0

3.4

Team

9.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
J. WoodRF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	3	13.4
D. CrewsRF	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	3.1
C. Mead1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	7.4
C. AbramsSS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	8.8
J. YoungCF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	14.5
D. LileLF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	13.3
K. RuizC	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	14.4
L. Garcia Jr.1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	11.4
N. Nunez2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.8
J. TenaDH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.4
Team	3-29	29	1	3	1	0	3	9	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
A. AlvarezRP	4.2	4	1	1	1	5	1	12.4
B. LordRP	1.1	0	0	0	3	2	0	7.9
O. RibaltaRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	2.4
C. BeeterRP	1.1	3	2	2	1	3	0	34.4
G. VarlandRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	0	0	10.6
P. SchultzRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.2
Team	9.0	10	4	4	8	11	1	—

Team

MIA

WSH