Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at MIA?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 22, 2026

FINAL+3MIA

STL

14-10

MIA

12-13

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

7,593 attended

Line movement

40 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.0%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
52.6%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.4%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.1%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at MIA?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

MIA vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
4.9± 1.7medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.8± 2.9medium

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.4± 1.3high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 0.7high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

JJ WetherholtSTL
2.2± 2.8high
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.0± 1.7high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.8± 3.4high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.5high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.8± 1.3high
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.6high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.2± 3.1medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.0± 1.9medium
Dustin MaySTL
2.5± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

MIA

.728

OPS

◀

.718

.708

.328

OBP

◀

.319

.322

4.63

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.29

4.26

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.07

1.34

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

STL 1 · MIA 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
MIA	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.218	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. HerreraDH	.230	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
N. Gorman3B	.208	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. Urias3B	.186	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FerminLF	.208	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. ChurchLF	.236	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
T. SaggeseLF	.180	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. PagesC	.204	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. Scott IICF	.197	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		31	1	4	1	1	2	9

Player

.218

.230

.208

.186

.208

.236

.180

.204

.197

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	5.0	8	4	4	3	2	89
G. GraceffoRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	18
M. SvansonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
R. FernandezRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	17
Team	8.0	12	4	4	3	5	132

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

132

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarseeCF	.179	4	0	1	2	0	1	0
X. Edwards2B	.330	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.315	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
L. HicksC	.321	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. RamirezC	.227	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
H. HernandezLF	.179	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
O. CaissieRF	.225	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
L. Jimenez3B	.273	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Sanoja3B	.352	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
G. Pauley3B	.185	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	12	4	0	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JunkSP	5.0	1	0	0	1	2	56
A. NardiRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	13
A. BenderRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	9
M. PetersenRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
L. BacharRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	9
P. FairbanksRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	4	1	1	2	9	112

Team

STL

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIA vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.