Matchup orbital
1
STL
STL
14-10
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
4
MIA
MIA
12-13
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
MIA wins
STL 1 · MIA 4 (by 3)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked MIA +3pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MIA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
STL14-10
STL
12-13MIA
MIA
Recap · MLB
iami Marlins held off St. Louis Cardinals, 4–1.
MIA -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
MIA wins series 2-1
STL3@MIA5STL5@MIA3STL1@MIA4todaySeason series
MIA leads series 2-1
STL3@MIA5STL5@MIA3STL1@MIA4todayMIA@STLupcomingMIA@STLupcomingMIA@STLupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
STL+12944%MIA-15661%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 2 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 2nd Inning
STL
I. Herrera
CBatter of the game
1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS
K. Leahy
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 3 BB
MIA
J. Sanoja
3BBatter of the game
3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS
J. Junk
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB
How it ended
MIA beat STL 4-1.
Win probability
MIA vs STL
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactFerm · ín grounded into double play, second to first, Urías out at second.
Caissie · singled to left, Ramírez scored, Hernández to second.
Marsee · walked, Hernández scored, Jiménez to second, Caissie to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MIA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
Period scoring
STL won 0 · MIA won 3
Inn 1
Inn 2
Caissie 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Marsee 1
Inn 5
Ram 1
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Herrera 1
Game flow · key plays
- B2
Marsee walked, Hernández scored, Jiménez to second, Caissie to third.
STL 0·MIA 2
+8pp
- B2
Caissie singled to left, Ramírez scored, Hernández to second.
STL 0·MIA 1
+10pp
- B2
Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ramírez to second, Hicks out at third.
STL 0·MIA 0
−5pp
- B2
Ramírez singled to right, Hicks to second.
STL 0·MIA 0
+5pp
- T2
Fermín grounded into double play, second to first, Urías out at second.
STL 0·MIA 0
+7pp
- T2
Urías safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Sanoja.
STL 0·MIA 0
−5pp
Team stats
STL
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
4
Hits
12
1
Errors
1
1
Runs
4
Player box score
STL
14-10
J. Wetherholt★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
I. Herrera★
C
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1
N. Gorman★
3B
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
R. Urias★
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Fermin★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
N. Church★
LF
OPS
0.833
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
T. Saggese★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
P. Pages★
C
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
V. Scott II★
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
4-31
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J. Wetherholt★2B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
I. Herrera★C | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.250 |
N. Gorman★3B | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
R. Urias★3B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
J. Fermin★LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
N. Church★LF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.833 |
T. Saggese★LF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
P. Pages★C | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
V. Scott II★CF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 4-31 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
K. Leahy★
SP
IP
5.0
H
8
ER
4
K
2
G. Graceffo
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
0
K
0
M. Svanson
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1
R. Fernandez
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
0
K
2
IP
8.0
H
12
ER
4
K
5
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
K. Leahy★SP | 5.0 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
G. GraceffoRP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
M. SvansonRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
R. FernandezRP | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 8.0 | 12 | 4 | 5 |
MIA
12-13
J. Marsee★
CF
OPS
0.650
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
2
HR
0
X. Edwards★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
O. Lopez★
SS
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
L. Hicks★
C
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Ramirez★
C
OPS
1.417
H-AB
2-3
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
H. Hernandez★
LF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
O. Caissie★
RF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
L. Jimenez★
2B
OPS
—
H-AB
0-0
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Sanoja★
3B
OPS
1.500
H-AB
3-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
G. Pauley
3B
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
12-34
R
4
RBI
4
HR
0
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J. Marsee★CF | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.650 |
X. Edwards★2B | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
O. Lopez★SS | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
L. Hicks★C | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
A. Ramirez★C | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.417 |
H. Hernandez★LF | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
O. Caissie★RF | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
L. Jimenez★2B | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
J. Sanoja★3B | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.500 |
G. Pauley3B | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Team | 12-34 | 4 | 4 | 0 | — |
J. Junk★
SP
IP
5.0
H
1
ER
0
K
2
A. Nardi
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
2
A. Bender
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
M. Petersen
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
3
L. Bachar
RP
IP
0.1
H
1
ER
1
K
0
P. Fairbanks
RP
IP
0.2
H
0
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
4
ER
1
K
9
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
J. Junk★SP | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
A. NardiRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
A. BenderRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
M. PetersenRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
L. BacharRP | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
P. FairbanksRP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
Betting line
MIA -1.5·O/U 8.5·STL +129/MIA -156