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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3DET
DET

DET

21-33

4
1
BAL

BAL

23-30

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
19,735 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BAL no-vig %

52.3%

open 52.3%

+2.0+1.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL56.3%48.3%BAL NO-VIG %May 24, 3 AMMay 24, 6 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 4 · BAL 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET2000200004
BAL0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+41.5pp

best edge · BAL · DraftKings

DET

no live price

BAL

★ best
+514DraftKings

edge +41.5pp · implied 15.3%

BookDETBALBest edge
DraftKings-910+514★+41.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -127

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 4–1.

DET +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Dillon Dingler

Dillon Dingler

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Samuel Basallo

Samuel Basallo

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET21-33
4
1
BAL23-30
DET21-33·BAL23-30
DET

DET

21-33

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-55010001
SPRINT28.483
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
1-44112000
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-33112110
SPRINT27.765
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44000002
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
0-22000000
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-33110010
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.969
H. LeeH. Lee★2B
0-33000000
Z. ShortZ. Short★SS
1-33010010
C. KeithC. Keith3B
1-22010000
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry2B
0-11000000
Team7-3434474133
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MeltonT. Melton★SP
5.2211330
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.1000020
D. AndersonD. AndersonRP
2.0100240
Team9.0311590
BAL

BAL

23-30

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-22100021
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-22011011
SPRINT25.310
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
0-44000002
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-11000010
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-44000001
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-33000000
T. O'NeillT. O'NeillRF
0-22000002
Team3-2929131059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
4.2444221
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
0.1000100
A. SuarezA. SuarezRP
4.0300010
Team9.0744331

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

3

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

May 22DETDET4@BALBAL7
May 23DETDET0@BALBAL0
May 24DETDET3@BALBAL5
May 24DETDET4@BALBAL1today

Season series

BAL leads series 2-1

May 22DETDET4@BALBAL7
May 23DETDET0@BALBAL0
May 24DETDET3@BALBAL5
May 24DETDET4@BALBAL1today
Jul 27BALBAL@DETDETupcoming
Jul 28BALBAL@DETDETupcoming
Jul 29BALBAL@DETDETupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+10649%
BALBAL-12756%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 5th Inning

DETDET
D. Dingler

D. Dingler

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

T. Melton

T. Melton

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

BALBAL
S. Basallo

S. Basallo

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

DET beat BAL 4-1. McGonigle's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+17pp→ 57% WP

Dingler · homered to left (382 feet), McGonigle scored.

BALBottom 4th Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 52% WP

Alonso · singled to center, Rutschman to third.

DETTop 5th Inning · 4-1
+21pp→ 82% WP

McGonigle · singled to center, Pérez scored and Torkelson scored, Short to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET2000200004
BAL0001000001

Period scoring

DET won 2 · BAL won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Dingler 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Basallo 1

2
0

Inn 5

McGonigle 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

DET
BAL

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    DET 4·BAL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  3. B9

    Alexander struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  9. B9

    Drew Anderson pitches to Blaze Alexander

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  11. B9

    O'Neill struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

    −5pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  17. B9

    Drew Anderson pitches to Tyler O'Neill

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  18. B9

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  19. B9

    Taveras struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

    −8pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  24. B9

    Drew Anderson pitches to Leody Taveras

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  25. B9

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  26. B9

    Basallo walked, Alonso to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

    +8pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 4·BAL 1

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

4

Runs

1

7

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

10

TB

3

1

HR

0

3

BB

5

3

K

9

13

LOB

15

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 8·DET +106/BAL -127

DraftKings · via ESPN

Win probability

BAL vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.07

CLV pp

Open price

-121

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

52.3%

Close no-vig

53.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

BAL vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    57.2%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.7%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.9%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 24, 26sim 97
    63
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 93
    36
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 93
    12
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 93
    32
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 93
    211
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 92
    212
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278