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FINAL+2BOS

25-13

BOS

17-22

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

35,052 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

BOS no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
50.4%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.6%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.6%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

BOS vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
7.7± 4.7low
Drew RasmussenTB
5.3± 2.9low
Shane McClanahanTB
4.9± 1.4low

Hits

Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 1.4high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.1± 1.1high
Chandler SimpsonTB
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
1.8± 1.8high
Yandy DiazTB
1.8± 1.5high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Jonathan ArandaTB
0.7± 0.7high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
0.6± 1.4medium
Jarren DuranBOS
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Brayan BelloBOS
3.9± 3.1low
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.1± 2.0low
Sonny GrayBOS
1.8± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

TB 0 · BOS 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BOS	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

MLBFri, May 8FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBOS -137

Recap · MLB

oston Red Sox held off Tampa Bay Rays, 2–0.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

Nick Fortes

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

RBI

BOS · top performer

Wilyer Abreu

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box score

25-13

Final

BOS

17-22

25-13

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Y. Diaz★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. Vilade★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Caminero★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. DeLuca★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Williamson★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Simpson★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Fortes★C	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
T. Walls★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
Team	4-30	30	0	4	0	0	1	12

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
J. Scholtens★RP	4.2	2	2	2	4	4	2
M. EnglertRP	3.1	2	0	0	0	3	0
Team	8.0	4	2	2	4	7	2

BOS

17-22

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Duran★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. Contreras★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
W. Abreu★RF	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	2	0
M. Yoshida★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Story★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. Rafaela★CF	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
M. Mayer★2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Narvaez★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	4-29	29	2	4	2	2	4	7

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
C. Early★SP	7.0	4	0	0	1	8	0
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team	9.0	4	0	0	1	12	0

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 7

TB8@

BOS4

May 8

TB0@

BOS2today

May 9

TB@

BOSupcoming

May 10

TB@

BOSupcoming

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 7

TB8@

BOS4

May 8

TB0@

BOS2today

May 9

TB@

BOSupcoming

May 10

TB@

BOSupcoming

Jun 8

BOS@

TBupcoming

Jun 9

BOS@

TBupcoming

Jun 10

BOS@

TBupcoming

Jul 17

TB@

BOSupcoming

Jul 18

TB@

BOSupcoming

Jul 19

TB@

BOSupcoming

Sep 18

BOS@

TBupcoming

Sep 19

BOS@

TBupcoming

Sep 20

BOS@

TBupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB+11447%

BOS-13758%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

N. Fortes

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

J. Scholtens

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

BOS

W. Abreu

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

C. Early

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat TB 2-0.

Win probability

BOS vs TB

Score progression

0 lead changes

TB0

BOS2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TBTop 3rd Inning · 0-0

+12pp→ 55% WP

Walls · singled to left, Fortes to third.

BOSBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0

+15pp→ 62% WP

Duran · lined out to center.

BOSBottom 4th Inning · 0-2

+9pp→ 83% WP

Rafaela · homered to left (379 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BOS	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	—	2

Period scoring

TB won 0 · BOS won 2

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Abreu 1

Inn 4

Rafaela 1

Inn 5

Inn 6

Inn 7

Inn 8

Inn 9

BOS

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period

event

player

T9
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
DeLuca struck out swinging.
·
TB 0·BOS 2
+1pp
T9
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Aroldis Chapman pitches to Jonny DeLuca
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Aranda struck out swinging.
·
TB 0·BOS 2
+3pp
T9
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Aroldis Chapman pitches to Jonathan Aranda
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Caminero grounded out to third.
·
TB 0·BOS 2
+4pp
T9
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 5 : Ball 2
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Aroldis Chapman pitches to Junior Caminero
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Chapman relieved Whitlock
·
TB 0·BOS 2
T9
Top of the 9th inning
TB 0·BOS 2
End 8t
End of the 8th inning
TB 0·BOS 2

Team stats

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8.5·TB +114/BOS -137

DraftKings · via ESPN