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FINAL+3TEX

CHC

27-14

TEX

19-21

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

34,221 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TEX no-vig %

54.2%

open 53.2% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
44.4%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.2%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.02

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

TEX vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 63 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.7± 3.2low
Shota ImanagaCHC
6.6± 4.5low
Jack LeiterTEX
6.1± 3.5low

Hits

Josh JungTEX
1.3± 1.2high
Michael BuschCHC
1.1± 0.9high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.1± 2.0high
Ian HappCHC
1.9± 3.1high
Josh JungTEX
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Michael BuschCHC
1.0± 1.5high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.7± 1.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
2.9± 2.4low
MacKenzie GoreTEX
2.9± 2.2low
Jameson TaillonCHC
2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

CHC 0 · TEX 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TEX	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSun, May 10FinalSeriesTEX wins series 2-1VegasTEX -123

Recap · MLB

exas Rangers held off Chicago Cubs, 3–0.

TEX -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

Nico Hoerner

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

RBI

TEX · top performer

Josh Jung

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

CHC27-14

TEX19-21

CHC27-14TEX19-21

CHC

27-14

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. Hoerner★2B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.278
M. Ballesteros★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
SPRINT24.53
S. Suzuki★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
SPRINT27.457
I. Happ★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
SPRINT27.662
M. Busch★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.716
C. Kelly★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Swanson★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Shaw★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	3-30	30	0	3	0	0	0	11

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
J. Taillon★SP	5.1	4	1	1	2	4	0
H. MilnerRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0
P. MatonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0
D. PalenciaRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	1	1
Team	8.0	7	3	3	2	7	1

TEX

19-21

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Nimmo★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Duran★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT28.891
C. Seager★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Jung★3B	3-4	4	2	3	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.920
E. Carter★CF	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
SPRINT28.175
J. Pederson★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT25.716
A. Osuna★LF	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT2872
D. Jansen★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Foscue★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	7-29	29	3	7	3	1	2	7

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
J. deGrom★SP	7.0	3	0	0	0	10	0
J. LatzRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	9.0	3	0	0	0	11	0

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

J. Taillon
90 pitches27% CSW
- FF
  37%91.2 mph37% whiff
- CH
  18%84.0 mph44% whiff
- FC
  17%85.4 mph25% whiff
- CU
  11%78.4 mph25% whiff
- ST
  10%79.5 mph0% whiff
- SI
  8%91.3 mph0% whiff
D. Palencia
15 pitches27% CSW
- FF
  67%99.5 mph40% whiff
- FS
  20%89.4 mph50% whiff
- SL
  13%88.9 mph0% whiff
P. Maton
13 pitches54% CSW
- CU
  46%74.4 mph40% whiff
- FC
  38%89.6 mph50% whiff
- ST
  15%83.4 mph— whiff
H. Milner
11 pitches18% CSW
- ST
  64%78.7 mph0% whiff
- FF
  18%87.1 mph0% whiff
- CH
  9%80.2 mph0% whiff
- SI
  9%86.2 mph— whiff

TEX

J. deGrom
94 pitches39% CSW
- FF
  47%97.2 mph46% whiff
- SL
  41%90.9 mph43% whiff
- CH
  9%90.1 mph50% whiff
- CU
  2%80.7 mph— whiff
- SI
  1%96.3 mph0% whiff
J. Latz
20 pitches25% CSW
- CH
  35%84.9 mph25% whiff
- FF
  30%93.8 mph0% whiff
- SL
  30%85.0 mph0% whiff
- CU
  5%80.0 mph0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

May 9

CHC7@

TEX1

May 9

CHC0@

TEX6

May 10

CHC0@

TEX3today

Season series

TEX wins series 2-1

May 9

CHC7@

TEX1

May 9

CHC0@

TEX6

May 10

CHC0@

TEX3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHC+10250%

TEX-12355%

5· 5.8h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 8th Inning

CHC

N. Hoerner

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Taillon

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

TEX

J. Jung

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

J. deGrom

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

TEX beat CHC 3-0.

Win probability

TEX vs CHC

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHCTop 4th Inning · 0-0

+8pp→ 57% WP

Hoerner · doubled to left.

TEXBottom 4th Inning · 0-0

+10pp→ 67% WP

Pederson · doubled to right, Jung to third.

TEXBottom 8th Inning · 0-3

+12pp→ 97% WP

Carter · homered to right (353 feet), Jung scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TEX	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	—	3

Period scoring

CHC won 0 · TEX won 2

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Cubs 1

Inn 5

Inn 6

Inn 7

Inn 8

Carter 2

Inn 9

CHC

TEX

Play-by-play · 471 plays

period

event

player

T9
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Suzuki struck out swinging.
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
+0.5pp
T9
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Jacob Latz pitches to Seiya Suzuki
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Ballesteros popped out to first.
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
+1pp
T9
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Jacob Latz pitches to Moises Ballesteros
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Hoerner grounded out to second.
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
+2pp
T9
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Jacob Latz pitches to Nico Hoerner
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
T9
Top of the 9th inning
CHC 0·TEX 3
End 8t
End of the 8th inning
CHC 0·TEX 3
B8
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
B8
Pederson struck out swinging.
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
B8
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
B8
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
B8
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
B8
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
B8
Daniel Palencia pitches to Joc Pederson
·
CHC 0·TEX 3
B8
·
CHC 0·TEX 3

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 7.5·CHC +102/TEX -123

DraftKings · via ESPN