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    GS 80@MIN 84
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6BAL
BAL

BAL

30-33

8
2
BOS

BOS

26-35

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
33,180 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

BOS no-vig %

51.7%

open 52.2% · -0.4

+2.0-2.0BOS SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.5TOTAL56.6%47.7%BOS NO-VIG %MODEL 55.7%Jun 3, 7 PMJun 4, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 8 · BOS 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL6000200008
BOS0000010012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 68-43
61%Last 30 · 316-206
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+42.2pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

BAL

no live price

BOS

★ best
+597DraftKings

edge +42.2pp · implied 13.5%

BookBALBOSBest edge
DraftKings-1160+597★+42.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 982 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jun 3, 26sim 99
    11
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 96
    2610
    11(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 2, 26sim 96
    14
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 8, 26sim 95
    94
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 3, 26sim 95
    115
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 95
    75
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Jun 4·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -125

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Boston Red Sox and beat them, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BAL +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 10.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. BelloBOS−38.2pp
  2. 2S. BasalloBAL+31.4pp
  3. 3L. TaverasBAL+28.9pp

BAL · top performer

BAL
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

LF

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BOS · top performer

BOS
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL30-33
8
2
BOS26-35
BAL30-33·BOS26-35
BAL

BAL

30-33

8
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
T. WardT. Ward★LF
3-5513100015.8
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-3310001012.3
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-550110011.2
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-441200116.2
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-4421101131.4
SPRINT25.310
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-5511100128.9
SPRINT2993
C. CowserC. Cowser★RF
1-3311101220.2
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-4411300222.3
SPRINT2872
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
0-220000206.4
Team10-35358108068—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
T. RogersT. Rogers★SP
5.25111303.6
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.10000000.0
T. WellsT. WellsRP
1.00000100.5
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.01000100.1
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.01110110.1
Team9.0722161—
BOS

BOS

26-35

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-440000010.8
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-441100020.7
SPRINT28.790
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-330100101.5
SPRINT2872
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-441221011.2
SPRINT26.838
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-440000001.2
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
1-220100001.0
SPRINT2744
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-440100000.6
SPRINT28.175
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-330000010.7
C. WongC. Wong★C
1-330100000.5
A. SeiglerA. Seigler2B
0-220000010.3
Team7-3333272116—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
B. BelloB. Bello★SP
5.078834038.2
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
2.01001301.9
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
2.02002100.1
Team9.01088680—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Rogers
    87 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.0 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      14%·77.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      3%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Akin
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      28%·87.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Wells
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      33%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • SI
      44%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      44%·88.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      11%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·93.7 mph·0% whiff

BOS

  • B. Bello
    108 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      36%·96.6 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      34%·89.0 mph·6% whiff
    • ST
      18%·86.9 mph·45% whiff
    • FC
      6%·88.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      6%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    34 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      68%·88.5 mph·18% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Moran
    31 pitches·26% CSW
    • CH
      48%·82.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      39%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·83.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

7

8

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Jun 2BALBAL4@BOSBOS2
Jun 3BALBAL1@BOSBOS8
Jun 4BALBAL8@BOSBOS2today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 24BOSBOS3@BALBAL10
Apr 25BOSBOS17@BALBAL1
Apr 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL3
Jun 2BALBAL4@BOSBOS2
Jun 3BALBAL1@BOSBOS8
Jun 4BALBAL8@BOSBOS2today
Jul 20BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 21BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 22BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 3BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 4BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 5BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 6BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

↗1.5pt· 5.6h

Total

10.5

High-scoring · +2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+10449%
BOSBOS-12556%

↗2· 5.6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

10.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 1st Inning

BALBAL
T. Ward

T. Ward

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.200 OPS

T. Rogers

T. Rogers

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

BOSBOS
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Bello

B. Bello

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 8 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BAL beat BOS 8-2. Mayo's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BOS vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 43% WP

Alonso · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Rutschman out at second, Henderson to third.

BALTop 1st Inning · 5-0
+18pp→ 87% WP

Mayo · doubled to left, Basallo scored, Cowser scored and Taveras scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL6000200008
BOS0000010012

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · BOS won 2

6
0

Inn 1

Mayo 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Basallo 1

0
1

Inn 6

Contreras 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Contreras 1

BAL
BOS

Play-by-play · 577 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  2. B9

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  3. B9

    Durbin lined out to center.

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  6. B9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Caleb Durbin

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  7. B9

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  8. B9

    Seigler struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  12. B9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Anthony Seigler

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  13. B9

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  14. B9

    Kiner-Falefa grounded out to first.

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  17. B9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  18. B9

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  19. B9

    Contreras homered to left (403 feet).

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 1

  22. B9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Willson Contreras

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 2

  23. B9

    Kittredge relieved Akin

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 1

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BAL 8·BOS 1

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BAL 8·BOS 1

  26. T9

    ·

    BAL 8·BOS 1

  27. T9

    Cowser singled to right, Alonso thrown out at third.

    · ·

    BAL 8·BOS 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 8·BOS 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 8·BOS 1

  30. T9

    Tommy Kahnle pitches to Colton Cowser

    · ·

    BAL 8·BOS 1

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

8

Runs

2

10

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

13

TB

11

0

HR

1

6

BB

1

8

K

6

18

LOB

8

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 10.5·BAL +104/BOS -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.09

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-115

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

51.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BOS vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.4± 3.8low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.5± 3.1low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.6high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Caleb DurbinBOS
    0.7± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    55.8%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.8%

    P(BOS win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.0%

    P(BOS win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.