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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SF
SF

SF

19-27

6
4
ATH

ATH

23-22

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
12,489 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

ATH no-vig %

55.1%

open 54.2% · +0.9

+0.5-2.0ATH SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.0TOTAL59.1%50.2%ATH NO-VIG %MODEL 50.5%May 15, 6 PMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 6 · ATH 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF1020201006
ATH0000100304

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+37.5pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

SF

no live price

ATH

★ best
+620DraftKings

edge +37.5pp · implied 13.1%

BookSFATHBest edge
DraftKings-1240+620★+37.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.87

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasATH -136

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into Athletics and beat them, 6–4.

SF +1.5 cashed (ATH lost outright). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

DH

2.800OPS

5-4

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Brent Rooker

Brent Rooker

DH

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF19-27
6
4
ATH23-22
SF19-27·ATH23-22
SF

SF

19-27

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-55110000
SPRINT27.148
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-33210020
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
4-55243201
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-55120003
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
3-55032000
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-55011002
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
2-55020002
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-55000003
J. RodríguezJ. Rodríguez★C
0-44000000
Team14-424261462211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. McDonaldT. McDonald★SP
6.2511150
E. MillerE. MillerRP
0.2022210
C. KilianC. KilianRP
0.2111021
M. GageM. GageRP
1.0000000
Team9.0644381
ATH

ATH

23-22

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-33100011
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-33110010
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-33010000
SPRINT26.735
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
2-44123100
SPRINT27.148
H. BolteH. Bolte★CF
0-33000002
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
0-44000001
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-22100011
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
2-44020001
SPRINT27.969
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-33001001
C. CortesC. CortesRF
0-11000001
C. ThomasC. ThomasRF
0-11000000
J. HeimJ. HeimC
0-11000000
Team6-3232464138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. SeverinoL. Severino★SP
6.01055272
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0211020
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
2.0200020
Team9.014662112

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

6

6

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

May 16SFSF2@ATHATH5
May 17SFSF6@ATHATH4today
May 17SFSF10@ATHATH1

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 16SFSF2@ATHATH5
May 17SFSF6@ATHATH4today
May 17SFSF10@ATHATH1
Jun 24ATHATH@SFSFupcoming
Jun 25ATHATH@SFSFupcoming
Jun 25ATHATH@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATH -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

SFSF+11347%
ATHATH-13658%

↘5· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗SpreadBet ATH -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

SFSF
C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.800 OPS

T. McDonald

T. McDonald

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

ATHATH
B. Rooker

B. Rooker

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Severino

L. Severino

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 5 ER · 10 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SF beat ATH 6-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 55% WP

Schmitt · homered to left (370 feet).

SFBottom 3rd Inning · 3-0
+17pp→ 79% WP

Hernaiz · struck out swinging.

SFTop 5th Inning · 5-0
+9pp→ 94% WP

Schmitt · homered to right (355 feet), Arraez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF1020201006
ATH0000100304

Period scoring

SF won 4 · ATH won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Schmitt 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Adames 2

0
0

Inn 4

2
1

Inn 5

Schmitt 2

McNeil 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Chapman 1

0
3

Inn 8

Rooker 3

0
0

Inn 9

SF
ATH

Play-by-play · 562 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 6·ATH 4

  2. B9

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  3. B9

    Heim grounded out to third.

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  10. B9

    Matt Gage pitches to Jonah Heim

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  11. B9

    Heim hit for McNeil

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  12. B9

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  13. B9

    Hernaiz grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

    −3pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  20. B9

    Matt Gage pitches to Darell Hernaiz

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  21. B9

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  22. B9

    Thomas flied out to center.

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

    −3pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  26. B9

    Matt Gage pitches to Colby Thomas

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  27. B9

    Gage relieved Kilian

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  28. B9

    Thomas hit for Butler

    ·

    SF 6·ATH 4

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SF 6·ATH 4

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SF 6·ATH 4

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

6

Runs

4

14

Hits

6

0

Errors

2

27

TB

11

2

HR

1

2

BB

3

11

K

8

26

LOB

13

Betting line

ATH -1.5·O/U 9.5·SF +113/ATH -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ATH vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    52.4%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.6%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.5%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 14, 26sim 99
    281
    9(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 96
    232
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 96
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    247
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 95
    95
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    232
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs