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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8MIN
MIA

MIA

20-24

1
9
MIN

MIN

20-24

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
20,702 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

MIN no-vig %

53.2%

open 55.1% · -1.9

+2.0-2.0MIN SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL59.1%49.2%MIN NO-VIG %MODEL 51.0%May 13, 6 PMMay 14, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIA 1 · MIN 9 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIN +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0000000101
MIN051000039

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.7pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best
+145DraftKings

edge +10.7pp · implied 38.3%

MIN

no live price

BookMIAMINBest edge
DraftKings+145★-191+10.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.98

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+113

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

46.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, May 14·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1/VegasMIA -115

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Miami Marlins, 9–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN +1.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Otto Lopez

Otto Lopez

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Kreidler

Ryan Kreidler

CF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

3

R

0

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA20-24
1
9
MIN20-24
MIA20-24·MIN20-24
MIA

MIA

20-24

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-33100010
SPRINT2872
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
1-33010010
SPRINT25.614
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-44021000
SPRINT28.381
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-33000012
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-44010001
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000002
L. JimenezL. Jimenez★3B
0-44000002
O. CaissieO. Caissie★RF
1-22010001
SPRINT28.586
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-33000000
E. RuizE. RuizRF
0-11000000
Team5-3131151038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. GarrettB. Garrett★SP
1.1455530
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.2210010
A. BenderA. BenderRP
2.0000010
L. BacharL. BacharRP
2.0000020
J. KingJ. KingRP
1.0333100
Team8.0998670
MIN

MIN

20-24

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
2-44123010
SPRINT27.867
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-55010000
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-22100020
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44012003
SPRINT25.18
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-44001001
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT28.688
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-33100010
R. KreidlerR. Kreidler★CF
2-33320011
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
2-33223010
SPRINT27.251
Team9-3232999067
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. MatthewsZ. Matthews★SP
7.0400150
K. RojasK. RojasRP
2.0111230
Team9.0511380

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • B. Garrett
    64 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      27%·91.3 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      22%·83.6 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      16%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·91.5 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      29%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      39%·95.0 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      17%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·90.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      13%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      13%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Bender
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • ST
      63%·83.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      32%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. King
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • CH
      35%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·82.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      24%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·79.2 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • Z. Matthews
    83 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      48%·94.8 mph·5% whiff
    • CH
      16%·84.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      16%·78.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.8 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Rojas
    41 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      49%·96.0 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

9

1

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

May 12MIAMIA0@MINMIN3
May 13MIAMIA9@MINMIN5
May 14MIAMIA1@MINMIN9today

Season series

MIN wins series 2-1

May 12MIAMIA0@MINMIN3
May 13MIAMIA9@MINMIN5
May 14MIAMIA1@MINMIN9today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.5h

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

MIAMIA-11553%
MINMIN-10551%

↗10· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

MIAMIA
O. Lopez

O. Lopez

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

L. Bachar

L. Bachar

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER

MINMIN
R. Kreidler

R. Kreidler

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 3 R · 1.417 OPS

Z. Matthews

Z. Matthews

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIN beat MIA 9-1.

Win probability

MIN vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 80% WP

Lee · doubled to left, Martin to third.

MINBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 90% WP

Martin · hit a ground rule double, Lewis scored and Kreidler scored, Outman to third.

MINBottom 2nd Inning · 0-4
+7pp→ 95% WP

Bell · doubled to left, Outman scored and Martin scored, Jeffers to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0000000101
MIN05100003—9

Period scoring

MIA won 0 · MIN won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
5

Inn 2

Martin 2

0
1

Inn 3

Outman 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
3

Inn 8

Lopez 1

Outman 2

0

Inn 9

MIA
MIN

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  2. T9

    Jiménez struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  8. T9

    Kendry Rojas pitches to Leo Jimenez

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  9. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  10. T9

    Marsee grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  15. T9

    Kendry Rojas pitches to Jakob Marsee

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  16. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  17. T9

    Morel struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  21. T9

    Kendry Rojas pitches to Christopher Morel

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  22. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  23. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  24. B8

    · ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  25. B8

    Lee flied out to left.

    · ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  29. B8

    John King pitches to Brooks Lee

    · ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

  30. B8

    ·

    MIA 1·MIN 9

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

1

Runs

9

5

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

6

TB

13

0

HR

0

3

BB

6

8

K

7

11

LOB

15

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 9·MIA -115/MIN -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 16, 26sim 99
    266
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 95
    189
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 22, 26sim 95
    232
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 95
    17
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    66
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    247
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

MIN vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    52.7%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.2%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.7%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Owen CaissieMIA · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872