MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Smith grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Tucker out at second. → win prob 38→48% ARI

TOP 5THTied

LAD

40-22

ARI

32-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 981 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 50-02 outs

Pitcher· ARI

R. Nelson

4.2 IP, 2 K, 0 ER

Batter· LAD

R. Ward

0-1

LastRyne Nelson pitches to Ryan Ward

Live · model leanTop 5thPolls every 30s

54.1%

LAD wins · current

Pre-game: 60.3% LAD

LAD 0 · 0 ARI

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsARI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchARITop 5th Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 48% WP
Smith · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Tucker out at second.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.69

J. Wrobleski

7-2 · 2.87 ERA

R. Nelson

2-4 · 4.82 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

ARI no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
38.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
36.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.1%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

38.6%

+0.3ppvs pre-game · LAD favored

Calibrated · at ~37% reads, home has won 44% (57)

Leverage

±9.8

pp · next play

high · 71/100

Tied · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.78

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-144

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

56.4%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.0pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

LAD

★ best

-137DraftKings

edge +5.0pp · implied 55.3%

ARI

no live price

Book	LAD	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	-137★	+114	+5.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

ARI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.3± 3.4low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.6± 3.7low
Michael SorokaARI
5.4± 3.4low

Hits

Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.4± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
1.3± 1.5high
Andy PagesLAD
1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

Andy PagesLAD
2.7± 2.5high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.4± 2.1high
Ketel MarteARI
2.3± 2.5high

RBIs

Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 1.2high
Freddie FreemanLAD
0.9± 0.7high
Andy PagesLAD
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.3± 3.3low
Zac GallenARI
3.1± 2.3low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

● Live

LAD★

Dodgers

46-26

vs60.3%LAD

ARI

Diamondbacks

33-33

LAD 60.3%win prob39.7% ARI

LAD 1602 · ARI 1495Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
M. Betts★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.2
F. Freeman★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.8
SPRINT24.74
A. Pages★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.0
SPRINT28.175
K. Tucker★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	8.1
SPRINT26.123
W. Smith★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.3
M. Muncy★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1.4
SPRINT27.354
R. Ward★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.6
D. Rushing★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.7
A. Freeland★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.9

Team	2-14	14	0	2	0	0	1	2	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

M. Betts★SS

0-2

3.2

F. Freeman★1B

0-2

3.8

A. Pages★CF

0-2

0.0

K. Tucker★RF

1-2

8.1

W. Smith★C

0-1

7.3

M. Muncy★3B

1-2

1.4

R. Ward★LF

0-1

1.6

D. Rushing★C

0-1

1.7

A. Freeland★2B

0-1

0.9

Team

2-14

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
J. Wrobleski★SP	4.0	3	0	0	0	4	0	3.9
Team	4.0	3	0	0	0	4	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

J. Wrobleski★SP

4.0

3.9

Team

4.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
K. Marte★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	4.0
SPRINT26.225
C. Carroll★RF	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.9
SPRINT29.496
G. Moreno★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.8
SPRINT26.428
N. Arenado★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.5
SPRINT25.29
R. Waldschmidt★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1.3
I. Vargas★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.3
G. Perdomo★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
J. Fernandez★DH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.2
T. Troy★LF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	3.9

Team	3-15	15	0	3	0	0	0	4	—

Batting

Analytics

Player