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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1MIL
MIL

MIL

26-17

2
1
MIN

MIN

20-26

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
33,115 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

+2.0-0.5MIN SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL50.8%42.8%MIN NO-VIG %May 15, 6 PMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 2 · MIN 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0001010002
MIN0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.7pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIL

★ best
-118DraftKings

edge +10.7pp · implied 50.8%

MIN

no live price

BookMILMINBest edge
DraftKings-118★-110+10.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.09

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 2-1/VegasMIL -132

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

MIN +1.5 cashed (MIL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach

LF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL26-17
2
1
MIN20-26
MIL26-17·MIN20-26
MIL

MIL

26-17

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
2-44121102
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44010001
SPRINT24.96
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-33010010
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
0-44000002
SPRINT27.148
G. SanchezG. Sanchez★DH
0-22000010
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-44000001
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-33000011
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-44000000
Team5-3232251139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. HendersonL. Henderson★SP
5.0611171
C. PatrickC. PatrickRP
4.0100030
Team9.07111101
MIN

MIN

20-26

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-44000002
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-44000000
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-44010000
SPRINT26.326
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT26.632
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.18
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
2-44020001
SPRINT27.457
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT27.251
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-33000011
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
1-33010002
Team7-34341711110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PrielippC. Prielipp★SP
6.0321281
E. OrzeE. OrzeRP
2.0200110
Y. GomezY. GomezRP
1.0000000
Team9.0521391

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • L. Henderson
    84 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      35%·82.7 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      19%·87.1 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      1%·78.9 mph·— whiff
  • C. Patrick
    52 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      56%·90.2 mph·32% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      6%·87.3 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • C. Prielipp
    86 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      40%·86.3 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      17%·81.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.9 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Orze
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FS
      62%·83.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      23%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Gomez
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      27%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 2-1

May 15MILMIL3@MINMIN2
May 16MILMIL2@MINMIN1today
May 17MILMIL4@MINMIN5

Season series

MIL leads series 2-0

May 15MILMIL3@MINMIN2
May 16MILMIL2@MINMIN1today
May 17MILMIL4@MINMIN5
Aug 7MINMIN@MILMILupcoming
Aug 8MINMIN@MILMILupcoming
Aug 9MINMIN@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL-13257%
MINMIN+10948%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 7th Inning

MILMIL
J. Chourio

J. Chourio

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Henderson

L. Henderson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

MINMIN
T. Larnach

T. Larnach

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

C. Prielipp

C. Prielipp

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat MIN 2-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 73% WP

Chourio · homered to left center (400 feet).

MINBottom 7th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 43% WP

Outman · tripled to right.

MILTop 8th Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 83% WP

Chourio · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0001010002
MIN0010000001

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · MIN won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Larnach 1

1
0

Inn 4

Rengifo 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Chourio 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
MIN

Play-by-play · 518 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  2. B9

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  3. B9

    Gray lined out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  8. B9

    Chad Patrick pitches to Tristan Gray

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  9. B9

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  10. B9

    Lewis struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

    −7pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  15. B9

    Chad Patrick pitches to Royce Lewis

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  16. B9

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  17. B9

    Clemens popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

    −7pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  21. B9

    Chad Patrick pitches to Kody Clemens

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  22. B9

    Patrick relieved Hamilton

    ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  23. B9

    Contreras catching.

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  26. T9

    · ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  27. T9

    Ortiz fouled out to right.

    · ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 2·MIN 1

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

2

Runs

1

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

9

TB

13

1

HR

1

3

BB

1

9

K

10

18

LOB

17

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 8.5·MIL -132/MIN +109

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

MIN vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.2medium

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    2.0± 2.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Garrett MitchellMIL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.7low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    38.8%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    35.9%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    38.6%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.32 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 15, 26sim 97
    83
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 96
    190
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    191
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 94
    191
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 93
    193
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 91
    84
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs