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THE ONE Analytics
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LAD logo
LAD
1
LiveBot 8th
ARI logo
ARI
2
Updated 11:49 PM ET
Live read

Vargas lined out to left. → win prob 68→82% ARI

BOT 8TH+1ARI↑
LAD

LAD

38-21

1
2
ARI

ARI

31-27

MLB · At bat

Bottom 8·0-0·2 outs

Pitcher· LAD

J. Dreyer

0.2 IP, 0 ER

Batter· ARI

T. Troy

1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI

LastJack Dreyer pitches to Tommy Troy

Live · model leanBot 8thPolls every 30s

51.6%

ARI wins · current

Pre-game: 60.9% LAD

LAD 1 · 2 ARI

ARI +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8
away leadsARI leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingARIBottom 8th Inning · 1-2
    +14pp→ 82% WP

    Vargas · lined out to left.

  • ◆ClutchLADTop 8th Inning · 1-2
    +10pp→ 41% WP

    Ohtani · reached on infield single to second.

  • ↑SwingARIBottom 7th Inning · 1-2
    +21pp→ 73% WP

    Arenado · homered to left center (389 feet).

  • ↺Lead flipARIBottom 6th Inning · 1-1
    +18pp→ 51% WP

    Troy · homered to left (392 feet).

  • ↑SwingLADTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
    +9pp→ 69% WP

    Pages · doubled to center, Ohtani to third.

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.01

E. Sheehan

3-1 · 4.70 ERA

vs

E. Rodriguez

5-1 · 2.31 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ARI no-vig %

41.6%

open 41.7% · -0.2

+2.0-0.5ARI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL45.7%37.6%ARI NO-VIG %MODEL 39.1%May 31, 4 PMJun 1, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
● Live
LAD1

LAD★

Dodgers

44-25

vs60.9%LAD

ARI

Diamondbacks

32-31

ARI0
LAD 60.9%win prob39.1% ARI
LAD 1600 · ARI 1497Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 68-41
62%Last 30 · 328-203
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.6pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

LAD

★ best
-163DraftKings

edge +1.6pp · implied 59.3%

ARI

no live price

BookLADARIBest edge
DraftKings-163★+135+1.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Live · 4
  • MLBBot 9
    NYM 2@SEA 2
    +6.7pppeak
  • MLBBot 8
    LAD 1@ARI 2
    +53.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    COL 3@LAA 6
    +37.4pplow
  • WNBA5:37 - 4th
    MIN 96@PHX 64
    -36.0pplow
MLB·Mon, Jun 1·Bot 8th/SeriesLAD win series 2-0/VegasLAD -163
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1N. ArenadoARI+17.4pp
  2. 2T. TroyARI+16.5pp
  3. 3M. MuncyLAD−16.3pp

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

DH

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Tommy Troy

Tommy Troy

LF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks · live

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Bot 8th
LAD38-21
1
2
ARI31-27
LAD38-21·ARI31-27
LAD

LAD

38-21

1
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★DH
3-4413000013.5
SPRINT2744
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-4401000014.7
SPRINT28.175
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-440010002.5
SPRINT24.74
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-330100007.4
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-2200001012.8
W. SmithW. Smith★C
0-330000012.6
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-3300000216.3
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-220100014.3
SPRINT26.123
A. CallA. Call★LF
0-330000008.8
A. FreelandA. Freeland2B
0-110000013.2
Team6-2929161015—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP
6.13220323.7
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.20000103.6
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
0.200000012.2
Team7.2322042—
ARI

ARI

31-27

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-330000004.5
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-330100007.0
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-3300000011.0
SPRINT26.838
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-3311110117.4
SPRINT25.29
P. SmithP. Smith★1B
0-220000012.6
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-330000015.6
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
0-3300000011.4
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
0-330000007.5
T. TroyT. Troy★LF
1-2211110016.5
J. FernandezJ. FernandezDH
0-110000012.0
Team3-2626232204—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
6.051113010.5
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.00000209.1
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
1.01000000.6
Team8.0611150—

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

3

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Season series

LAD lead series 3-0

Mar 27ARIARI2@LADLAD8
Mar 28ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Mar 29ARIARI2@LADLAD3
Jun 2LADLAD@ARIARItoday
Jun 3LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jun 4LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jun 5LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 11ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Aug 8LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming

Season series

LAD win series 2-0

Feb 25LADLAD10@ARIARI7
Mar 10ARIARI1@LADLAD4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-16362%
ARIARI+13543%

↗1· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
LADLADSP
E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

#80 · 3-1

ERA

4.70

K

59

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/26vsCOLCOL6.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K-
5/20@SDSD4.0 IP · 4 ER · 2 K-
5/15vsSFSF6.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 KW(3-1)
VS
ARIARISP
E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

#57 · 5-1

ERA

2.31

K

49

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/27@SFSF6.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 KW(5-1)
5/22vsCOLCOL7.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 K-
5/16@COLCOL5.1 IP · 3 ER · 6 KL(4-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
LADLAD4L · 5R
  1. 1

    S. Ohtani

    DH · #17

    L
  2. 2

    A. Pages

    CF · #44

    R
  3. 3

    F. Freeman

    1B · #5

    L
  4. 4

    M. Betts

    SS · #50

    R
  5. 5

    K. Tucker

    RF · #23

    L
  6. 6

    W. Smith

    C · #16

    R
  7. 7

    M. Muncy

    3B · #13

    L
  8. 8

    M. Rojas

    2B · #72

    R
  9. 9

    A. Call

    LF · #12

    R
ARIARI2L · 3R · 4S
  1. 1

    K. Marte

    2B · #4

    B
  2. 2

    C. Carroll

    RF · #7

    L
  3. 3

    G. Perdomo

    SS · #2

    B
  4. 4

    N. Arenado

    3B · #28

    R
  5. 5

    P. Smith

    DH · #26

    L
  6. 6

    G. Moreno

    C · #14

    R
  7. 7

    I. Vargas

    1B · #6

    B
  8. 8

    J. Barrosa

    CF · #1

    B
  9. 9

    T. Troy

    LF · #9

    R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 8th
Game flowLAD ↔ ARI

Recent swing: 21pp · Bottom 7th Inning

Just happened

Jack Dreyer · pitches to Tommy Troy

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

DH

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H

On pace: 7 IP · 3 K · 2 ER

ARIARI
T. Troy

T. Troy

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 1 ER

How it's going

ARI lead LAD 2-1 (Bot 8th). Arenado's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

ARI vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 6th Inning · 1-1
+18pp→ 51% WP

Troy · homered to left (392 feet).

ARIBottom 7th Inning · 1-2
+21pp→ 73% WP

Arenado · homered to left center (389 feet).

ARIBottom 8th Inning · 1-2
+14pp→ 82% WP

Vargas · lined out to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678R
LAD001000001
ARI000001102

Period scoring

LAD won 1 · ARI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Troy 1

0
1

Inn 7

Arenado 1

0
0

Inn 8

LAD
ARI

Play-by-play · 432 plays

period
event
player
  1. B8

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Tommy Troy

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  2. B8

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  3. B8

    Barrosa grounded out to third.

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

    −2pp

  4. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  5. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  6. B8

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Jorge Barrosa

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  7. B8

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  8. B8

    Vargas lined out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

    +14pp

  9. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  10. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  11. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  12. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  13. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  14. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  15. B8

    Jack Dreyer pitches to Ildemaro Vargas

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  16. B8

    Dreyer relieved Vesia

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  17. B8

    Bottom of the 8th inning

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  18. M8

    Middle of the 8th inning

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  19. T8

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  20. T8

    Freeman grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Ohtani out at second.

    · ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  21. T8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  22. T8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  23. T8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  24. T8

    Brandyn Garcia pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  25. T8

    · ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  26. T8

    Pages flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

    +9pp

  27. T8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  28. T8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  29. T8

    Brandyn Garcia pitches to Andy Pages

    · ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

  30. T8

    ·

    LAD 1·ARI 2

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

1

Runs

2

6

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

8

TB

10

0

HR

2

1

BB

0

5

K

4

14

LOB

2

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAD -163/ARI +135

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.17

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-157

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.4%

Line barely moved

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

92.7%

+53.9ppvs pre-game · ARI favored

Leverage

±4.9

pp · next play

medium · 26/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Player projections

ARI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Ketel MarteARI
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.1± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Alex CallLAD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.3± 3.3low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.2%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    38.8%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.7%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    37.7%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. Strike LookingFF 93#1
  2. Strike SwingingFF 95#2
  3. BallSL 90#3
  4. Foul BallSL 90#4
  5. Foul BallFF 95#5
  6. Line OutSL 88#6
  7. Strike LookingCU 82#1
  8. Ground OutSL 89#2

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 982 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 31, 26sim 93
    82
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 92
    85
    16(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 89
    82
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 88
    85
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 86
    190
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 86
    83
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs