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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5MIL
MIL

MIL

29-18

5
0
CHC

CHC

29-21

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
39,459 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 6.5

open O/U 6.5

CHC no-vig %

51.5%

open 51.1% · +0.4

+2.0-0.5CHC SPREADO/U 7.0O/U 6.0TOTAL55.5%47.0%CHC NO-VIG %May 19, 5 PMMay 20, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 5 · CHC 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0310001005
CHC0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 58-35
62%Last 30 · 316-197
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+21.7pp

best edge · MIL · DraftKings

MIL

★ best
+141DraftKings

edge +21.7pp · implied 39.0%

CHC

no live price

BookMILCHCBest edge
DraftKings+141★-185+21.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 96
    85
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 91
    194
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 90
    103
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 30, 26sim 90
    155
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 31, 26sim 90
    82
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 89
    192
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, May 20·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0/VegasCHC -125

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 5–0.

MIL +1.5 cashed (CHC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1D. HamiltonMIL+36.3pp
  2. 2E. CabreraCHC−36.0pp
  3. 3S. FrelickMIL+30.8pp

MIL · top performer

MIL
William Contreras

William Contreras

C

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL29-18
5
0
CHC29-21
MIL29-18·CHC29-21
MIL

MIL

29-18

5
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-440000110.2
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-440100120.8
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
3-441300114.8
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-550000024.2
G. MitchellG. Mitchell★CF
0-220000016.2
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-440110013.1
SPRINT2744
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
0-3310000030.8
SPRINT28.790
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-3310001027.0
D. HamiltonD. Hamilton★SS
3-4423100036.3
SPRINT29.294
B. PerkinsB. PerkinsCF
0-220000010.7
Team8-3535582049—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
K. HarrisonK. Harrison★SP
7.0200111016.2
D. HallD. HallRP
2.000012014.6
Team9.02002130—
CHC

CHC

29-21

0
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-440100000.5
SPRINT28.278
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-4401000113.3
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-330000034.4
SPRINT27.662
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-220000114.1
SPRINT27.457
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-330000029.5
SPRINT25.716
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-220000115.1
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-330000022.1
M. AmayaM. Amaya★C
0-330000013.9
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-3300000227.1
Team2-27270200213—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
E. CabreraE. Cabrera★SP
3.044122036.0
T. ThorntonT. ThorntonRP
1.20000201.9
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.10000101.5
P. MatonP. MatonRP
0.22111102.9
R. RolisonR. RolisonRP
1.20000100.4
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
0.22001200.1
Team9.0852490—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • K. Harrison
    94 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      68%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      30%·82.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      2%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Hall
    27 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      48%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.1 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      11%·80.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.4 mph·— whiff

CHC

  • E. Cabrera
    61 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      31%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·96.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      16%·92.5 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      15%·84.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      11%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    24 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      42%·99.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      42%·90.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·99.8 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Rolison
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      15%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Thornton
    18 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·80.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      17%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.4 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      44%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·77.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Maton
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      56%·88.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      19%·76.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      19%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·88.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

2

5

Runs

0

0

Errors

3

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

May 18MILMIL9@CHCCHC3
May 19MILMIL5@CHCCHC2
May 20MILMIL5@CHCCHC0today

Season series

MIL leads series 3-0

May 18MILMIL9@CHCCHC3
May 19MILMIL5@CHCCHC2
May 20MILMIL5@CHCCHC0today
Jun 26CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Jun 27CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Jun 28CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Aug 31MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 1MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 2MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 3MILMIL@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 7CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Sep 8CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming
Sep 9CHCCHC@MILMILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MILMIL+10449%
CHCCHC-12556%

↘2· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 25pp · Top 2nd Inning

MILMIL
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.550 OPS

K. Harrison

K. Harrison

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 11 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

CHCCHC
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 0.500 OPS

E. Cabrera

E. Cabrera

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat CHC 5-0. Hamilton's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 62% WP

Hoerner · doubled to left.

MILTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+25pp→ 77% WP

Hamilton · singled to center, Frelick scored, Ortiz scored on fielding error by center fielder Crow-Armstrong and Hamilton scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0310001005
CHC0000000000

Period scoring

MIL won 3 · CHC won 0

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Hamilton 3

1
0

Inn 3

Bauers 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Chourio 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
CHC

Play-by-play · 530 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  2. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  3. B9

    Bregman struck out looking.

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  10. B9

    DL Hall pitches to Alex Bregman

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  11. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  12. B9

    Hoerner grounded out to first.

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  16. B9

    DL Hall pitches to Nico Hoerner

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  17. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  18. B9

    Crow-Armstrong grounded out to first.

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

    −0.5pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  25. B9

    DL Hall pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  28. T9

    · ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  29. T9

    Yelich struck out swinging.

    · ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 5·CHC 0

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

5

Runs

0

8

Hits

2

0

Errors

3

10

TB

3

0

HR

0

4

BB

2

9

K

13

14

LOB

9

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIL +104/CHC -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.97

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-101

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

47.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Player projections

CHC vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.6low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
    1.8± 2.4high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    40.4%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    37.5%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    40.5%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Garrett MitchellMIL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278