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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
LAD

LAD

39-22

6
5
ARI

ARI

32-28

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
32,829 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.0 · +0.5

ARI no-vig %

46.9%

open 46.8%

+2.0-0.5ARI SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL51.5%42.8%ARI NO-VIG %Jun 1, 4 PMJun 2, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 6 · ARI 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD2200002006
ARI0010103005

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 64-39
61%Last 30 · 312-202
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.6pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

LAD

★ best
-115DraftKings

edge +8.6pp · implied 51.2%

ARI

no live price

BookLADARIBest edge
DraftKings-115★-104+8.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 974 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 30, 26sim 96
    82
    18(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 31, 26sim 95
    154
    17(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jun 1, 26sim 94
    191
    29(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 92
    85
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 92
    84
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 91
    85
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Jun 2·Final/Seriestied 1-1/VegasLAD -115

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ARI +1.5 cashed (LAD won by 1). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1S. OhtaniLAD+52.4pp
  2. 2M. SorokaARI−26.4pp
  3. 3W. KleinLAD−26.2pp

LAD · top performer

LAD
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Geraldo Perdomo

Geraldo Perdomo

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD39-22
6
5
ARI32-28
LAD39-22·ARI32-28
LAD

LAD

39-22

6
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-4422201152.4
SPRINT2744
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-440110027.1
SPRINT28.175
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
3-5513210123.0
SPRINT24.74
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
1-440110113.8
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-330000111.0
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-440000028.3
RR. Ward★LF
0-440000016.8
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
2-4422000010.7
SPRINT27.867
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
1-3311000116.3
Team10-353561061310—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
E. LauerE. Lauer★SP
4.25221113.2
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.10001001.5
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
1.01000007.0
K. HurtK. HurtRP
0.213331013.0
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.130011026.2
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.010001019.0
Team9.01155641—
ARI

ARI

32-28

5
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-331010114.8
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-5512110112.9
SPRINT29.496
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-3311002024.1
SPRINT26.428
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-4411201025.5
SPRINT25.29
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
2-5502000226.1
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-440100102.7
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
1-330100008.5
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
1-331100005.0
T. TroyT. Troy★LF
1-440100002.0
G. PerdomoG. PerdomoSS
1-1101000010.4
P. SmithP. Smith1B
0-110010100.9
Team11-36365115164—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
M. SorokaM. Soroka★SP
6.064416126.4
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.032221010.9
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.00000105.5
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.010002021.3
Team9.010663101—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ARI

  • J. Loaisiga
    5 pitches·60% CSW
    • CH
      60%·90.7 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      40%·94.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

11

6

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 1-1

Jun 2LADLAD1@ARIARI4
Jun 3LADLAD6@ARIARI5today
Jun 4LADLAD7@ARIARI0
Jun 5LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming

Season series

LAD lead series 4-1

Mar 27ARIARI2@LADLAD8
Mar 28ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Mar 29ARIARI2@LADLAD3
Jun 2LADLAD1@ARIARI4
Jun 3LADLAD6@ARIARI5today
Jun 4LADLAD7@ARIARI0
Jun 5LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 11ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Aug 8LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-11553%
ARIARI-10451%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 9th Inning

LADLAD
F. Freeman

F. Freeman

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

E. Lauer

E. Lauer

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 1 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
G. Perdomo

G. Perdomo

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Soroka

M. Soroka

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat ARI 6-5. Ohtani's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ARI vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 65% WP

Freeman · homered to right center (394 feet), Ohtani scored.

LADTop 2nd Inning · 4-0
+15pp→ 87% WP

Ohtani · tripled to right, Rushing scored and Freeland scored.

LADTop 9th Inning · 6-5
+22pp→ 82% WP

Ohtani · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD2200002006
ARI0010103005

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · ARI won 3

2
0

Inn 1

Freeman 2

2
0

Inn 2

Ohtani 2

0
1

Inn 3

Carroll 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Marte 1

0
0

Inn 6

2
3

Inn 7

Pages 1

Arenado 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

LAD
ARI

Play-by-play · 627 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  2. B9

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  3. B9

    Smith grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

    −14pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  11. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Pavin Smith

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  12. B9

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  13. B9

    Diamondbacks challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Geraldo Perdomo out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Tanner Scott to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Ildemaro Vargas to 2nd.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

    −7pp

  14. B9

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  19. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Geraldo Perdomo

    · ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  20. B9

    ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  21. B9

    Vargas singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

    +9pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  25. B9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Ildemaro Vargas

    ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  26. B9

    ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  27. B9

    Waldschmidt struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

    −7pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 6·ARI 5

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

6

Runs

5

10

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

17

TB

15

1

HR

1

3

BB

6

10

K

4

11

LOB

23

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 9·LAD -115/ARI -104

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.73

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

52.5%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ARI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.6± 3.7low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.7± 2.5high
  • Ketel MarteARI
    2.3± 2.5high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.8± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.3± 3.3low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    39.4%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.1%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    39.4%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.