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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
DET

DET

2-4

0
1
ARI

ARI

3-3

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
23,166 attended

Line movement

21 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

ARI no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

+2.0+1.0ARI SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL45.7%37.7%ARI NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 1 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

DET 0 · ARI 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0000000000
ARI100000001

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+129

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 1·Final/SeriesARI wins series 3-0/VegasDET -156

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Detroit Tigers, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

ARI +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Kevin McGonigle

Kevin McGonigle

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET2-4
0
1
ARI3-3
DET2-4·ARI3-3
DET

DET

2-4

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.381
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.18
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-44010001
SPRINT27.765
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-33000001
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-33010000
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-33000000
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-33000001
Team7-3232070005
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
7.0611031
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0000200
Team8.0611231
ARI

ARI

3-3

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-33000011
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-33121110
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-44000000
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-33000000
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-33010001
SPRINT25.29
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
0-33000000
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.662
J. LawlarJ. Lawlar★LF
1-33010001
Team6-2828161123
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
6.0400020
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0100020
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0000010
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0200000
Team9.0700050

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • T. Skubal
    87 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·86.8 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      2%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      60%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      30%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·86.1 mph·100% whiff

ARI

  • Z. Gallen
    88 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      32%·93.9 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      28%·88.9 mph·13% whiff
    • KC
      26%·82.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      1%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      56%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      17%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • CU
      38%·88.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      38%·97.5 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      25%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Morillo
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SL
      45%·85.5 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      27%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·98.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·99.0 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

0

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 3-0

Mar 31DETDET6@ARIARI9
Apr 1DETDET5@ARIARI7
Apr 1DETDET0@ARIARI1today

Season series

ARI wins series 3-0

Mar 31DETDET6@ARIARI9
Apr 1DETDET5@ARIARI7
Apr 1DETDET0@ARIARI1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET-15661%
ARIARI+12944%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 9th Inning

DETDET
K. McGonigle

K. McGonigle

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 6 H

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

ARI beat DET 1-0. Torres's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Win probability

ARI vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 55% WP

Carroll · homered to center (410 feet).

ARIBottom 6th Inning · 0-1
+20pp→ 78% WP

Carroll · reached on infield single to third.

ARITop 9th Inning · 0-1
+26pp→ 96% WP

Torres · grounded into double play, third to second to first, McGonigle out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0000000000
ARI10000000—1

Period scoring

DET won 0 · ARI won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Carroll 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

DET
ARI

Play-by-play · 464 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  2. T9

    Dingler grounded out to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

    +11pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  7. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Dillon Dingler

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  8. T9

    Jones ran for Greene

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  9. T9

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  10. T9

    Greene doubled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

    −6pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  15. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Riley Greene

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  16. T9

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  17. T9

    Torres grounded into double play, third to second to first, McGonigle out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

    +26pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  22. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Gleyber Torres

    · ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  23. T9

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  24. T9

    McGonigle singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

    −16pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  29. T9

    Jonathan Loaisiga pitches to Kevin McGonigle

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

  30. T9

    Loaisiga relieved Morillo

    ·

    DET 0·ARI 1

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

0

Runs

1

7

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

11

TB

10

0

HR

1

0

BB

2

5

K

3

9

LOB

10

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 7.5·DET -156/ARI +129

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 95
    170
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 94
    12
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 94
    110
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 94
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 94
    114
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ARI vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.5± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.8± 2.0low

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    2.7± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    53.9%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.0%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.9%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.