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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PIT
CIN

CIN

20-14

0
1
PIT

PIT

19-16

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
16,642 attended

Line movement

79 snapshots

PIT spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

PIT no-vig %

53.3%

open 53.2% · +0.1

+2.0+1.0PIT SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL57.3%48.2%PIT NO-VIG %MODEL 51.6%May 2, 5 PMMay 27, 10 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

CIN 0 · PIT 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0000000000
PIT000000011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, May 3·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 3-0/VegasPIT -126

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Cincinnati Reds, 1–0. It came down to the final possession.

PIT +1.5 cashed (CIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
JJ Bleday

JJ Bleday

LF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Oneil Cruz

Oneil Cruz

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN20-14
0
1
PIT19-16
CIN20-14·PIT19-16
CIN

CIN

20-14

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.838
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
1-22010010
SPRINT27.457
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-33000011
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-44000000
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-33000002
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT28.483
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
0-33000002
J. TrevinoJ. Trevino★C
1-33010000
SPRINT23.40
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-33000000
D. MyersD. MyersCF
0-11000001
SPRINT2744
Team4-2929040028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BurnsC. Burns★SP
7.0300170
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0211200
Team8.0511370
PIT

PIT

19-16

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
2-44021000
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-33000011
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-33000012
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
0-33000002
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-33000001
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-33010000
SPRINT25.614
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-33000000
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
1-33110001
SPRINT29.899
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-22010000
SPRINT26.428
Team5-2727151037
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
7.2400260
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.1000020
Team9.0400280

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • C. Burns
    94 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      51%·98.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      41%·91.0 mph·45% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.9 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      57%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      43%·84.3 mph·33% whiff

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    82 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      44%·84.8 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      35%·97.0 mph·21% whiff
    • SI
      12%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·91.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      1%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      41%·83.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      29%·83.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      12%·97.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

5

0

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 3-0

May 1CINCIN1@PITPIT9
May 2CINCIN7@PITPIT17
May 3CINCIN0@PITPIT1today

Season series

PIT leads series 5-1

Mar 30PITPIT0@CINCIN2
Mar 31PITPIT8@CINCIN3
Apr 1PITPIT8@CINCIN3
May 1CINCIN1@PITPIT9
May 2CINCIN7@PITPIT17
May 3CINCIN0@PITPIT1today
Jun 26CINCIN@PITPITupcoming
Jun 27CINCIN@PITPITupcoming
Jun 28CINCIN@PITPITupcoming
Jul 30PITPIT@CINCINupcoming
Jul 31PITPIT@CINCINupcoming
Aug 1PITPIT@CINCINupcoming
Aug 2PITPIT@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CIN -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CINCIN+10549%
PITPIT-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗SpreadBet CIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 79 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 26pp · Bottom 8th Inning

CINCIN
J. Bleday

J. Bleday

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

C. Burns

C. Burns

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
O. Cruz

O. Cruz

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat CIN 1-0. Cruz's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 8th Inning · 0-0
+18pp→ 62% WP

Trevino · doubled to left, Steer to third.

CINBottom 8th Inning · 0-0
+14pp→ 45% WP

Horwitz · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Cook out at second.

PITBottom 8th Inning · 0-1
+26pp→ 88% WP

Cruz · singled to center, Griffin scored, Mangum to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0000000000
PIT00000001—1

Period scoring

CIN won 0 · PIT won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Cruz 1

0

Inn 9

CIN
PIT

Play-by-play · 440 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  2. T9

    Stewart flied out to left.

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  6. T9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Sal Stewart

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  7. T9

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  8. T9

    De La Cruz grounded out to catcher.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

    +5pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  10. T9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  11. T9

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  12. T9

    Myers struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

    +2pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  19. T9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Dane Myers

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  20. T9

    Mangum in left field.

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  21. T9

    Cook as designated hitter.

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  22. T9

    Davis catching.

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  23. T9

    Myers hit for Bleday

    ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  26. B8

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  27. B8

    Reynolds grounded out to second.

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

  30. B8

    Tony Santillan pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    · ·

    CIN 0·PIT 1

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

0

Runs

1

4

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

6

TB

6

0

HR

0

2

BB

3

8

K

7

11

LOB

10

Betting line

CIN -1.5·O/U 7.5·CIN +105/PIT -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

Win probability

PIT vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 966 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 6, 26sim 96
    231
    29(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 1, 26sim 95
    60
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 94
    131
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 94
    42
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 94
    111
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 93
    71
    6(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

PIT vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.3low
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.1± 1.6high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    1.9± 2.3high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Tyler StephensonCIN
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.4± 3.6low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.8%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    53.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.6%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.8%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Billy CookPIT · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872