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BOT 7TH+2BAL↑
BAL

BAL

16-20

6
4
MIA

MIA

16-20

Live · model leanBot 7thPolls every 30s

59.5%

BAL wins · current

Pre-game: 54.6% MIA

BAL 6 · 4 MIA

BAL +2

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.60

B. Young

2-1 · 6.14 ERA

vs

E. Perez

2-3 · 4.46 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

+0.5-2.0MIA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL58.2%50.2%MIA NO-VIG %MODEL 54.6%May 5, 4 PMMay 6, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

The One modelLean
● Live
BAL6

BAL

Orioles

16-20

vs54.6%MIA

MIA★

Marlins

16-20

MIA4
BAL 45.4%win prob54.6% MIA
MIA 1484 · BAL 1475Box score→

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

63%Last 7 · 65-38
58%Last 30 · 246-177
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, May 6·Bot 7th/SeriesBAL leads series 1-0/VegasMIA -131
Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

BAL · MIA

BAL

BAL

16-20

6
PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
G. Henderson
G. Henderson★SS
0-40000.000
T. Ward
T. Ward★LF
0-13000.750
A. Rutschman
A. Rutschman★C
2-31201.333
P. Alonso
P. Alonso★1B
1-41311.250
S. Basallo
S. Basallo★C
0-20000.333
L. Taveras
L. Taveras★CF
1-21001.167
D. Beavers
D. Beavers★RF
1-20101.167
C. Mayo
C. Mayo★3B
0-30000.000
J. Jackson
J. Jackson★2B
0-30000.000
Team5-24661—
PlayerIPHERK
B. Young
B. Young★SP
6.0435
G. Wolfram
G. WolframRP
0.2110
Team6.2545
MIA

MIA

16-20

4
PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
X. Edwards
X. Edwards★2B
0-40100.000
L. Hicks
L. Hicks★C
0-20000.333
C. Norby
C. Norby★1B
0-21000.333
K. Stowers
K. Stowers★LF
1-31000.667
J. Marsee
J. Marsee★CF
1-31200.667
C. Morel
C. Morel★LF
0-20000.333
O. Caissie
O. Caissie★RF
1-30100.667
J. Mack
J. Mack★C
0-20000.000
J. Sanoja
J. Sanoja★3B
1-30000.667
O. Lopez
O. LopezSS
1-11002.000
Team5-25440—
PlayerIPHERK
E. Perez
E. Perez★SP
5.0456
D. Fulton
D. FultonSP
2.0112
Team7.0568

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

6

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL leads series 1-0

May 5BALBAL9@MIAMIA7
May 6BALBAL@MIAMIAtoday
May 7BALBAL@MIAMIAupcoming

Season series

BAL leads series 1-0

May 5BALBAL9@MIAMIA7
May 6BALBAL@MIAMIAtoday
May 7BALBAL@MIAMIAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6h

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+10948%
MIAMIA-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗SpreadBet MIA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
BALBALSP
B. Young

B. Young

#63 · 2-1

ERA

6.14

K

9

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/30vsHOUHOU4.0 IP · 4 ER · 2 KL(2-1)
4/24vsBOSBOS5.2 IP · 3 ER · 5 KW(2-0)
4/6@CHWCHW5.0 IP · 0 ER · 2 KW(1-0)
VS
MIAMIASP
E. Perez

E. Perez

#39 · 2-3

ERA

4.46

K

39

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/1vsPHIPHI5.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 KL(2-3)
4/25@SFSF5.1 IP · 4 ER · 6 KL(2-2)
4/19vsMILMIL6.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 KW(2-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
BALBAL3L · 4R · 2S
  1. 1

    G. Henderson

    SS · #2

    L
  2. 2

    T. Ward

    LF · #3

    R
  3. 3

    A. Rutschman

    C · #35

    B
  4. 4

    P. Alonso

    1B · #25

    R
  5. 5

    S. Basallo

    DH · #29

    L
  6. 6

    L. Taveras

    CF · #30

    B
  7. 7

    D. Beavers

    RF · #12

    L
  8. 8

    C. Mayo

    3B · #16

    R
  9. 9

    J. Jackson

    2B · #82

    R
MIAMIA5L · 3R · 1S
  1. 1

    X. Edwards

    2B · #9

    B
  2. 2

    L. Hicks

    1B · #34

    L
  3. 3

    C. Norby

    3B · #1

    R
  4. 4

    K. Stowers

    LF · #28

    L
  5. 5

    J. Marsee

    CF · #87

    L
  6. 6

    C. Morel

    DH · #5

    R
  7. 7

    O. Caissie

    RF · #17

    L
  8. 8

    J. Mack

    C · #80

    L
  9. 9

    J. Sanoja

    SS · #8

    R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 7th
Game flowBAL ↔ MIA

Recent swing: 14pp · Top 5th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 7 : Strike 2 Foul

BALBAL
A. Rutschman

A. Rutschman

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

B. Young

B. Young

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 4 ER

MIAMIA
O. Lopez

O. Lopez

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 4 H · 5 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 7 ER

How it's going

BAL lead MIA 6-4 (Bot 7th). Alonso's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

MIA vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5T6T7
BAL6
MIA4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+23pp→ 67% WP

Alonso · homered to left center (407 feet), Ward scored and Rutschman scored.

MIABottom 1st Inning · 3-2
+20pp→ 53% WP

Marsee · doubled to left, Stowers scored and Norby scored.

BALTop 5th Inning · 5-3
+14pp→ 69% WP

Rutschman · doubled to right, Ward scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567R
BAL30011016
MIA30000014

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · MIA won 0

3
3

Inn 1

Alonso 3

Marsee 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Beavers 1

1
0

Inn 5

Rutschman 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
1

Inn 7

Rutschman 1

Edwards 1

BAL
MIA

Game flow · key plays

  1. B7

    Lopez hit a ground rule double.

    BAL 6·MIA 3

    +10pp

  2. T5

    Rutschman doubled to right, Ward scored.

    BAL 5·MIA 3

    −14pp

  3. T4

    Beavers hit a ground rule double, Taveras scored.

    BAL 4·MIA 3

    −13pp

  4. B1

    Caissie singled to right, Marsee scored, Morel to third.

    BAL 3·MIA 3

    +10pp

  5. B1

    Marsee doubled to left, Stowers scored and Norby scored.

    BAL 3·MIA 2

    +20pp

  6. T1

    Alonso homered to left center (407 feet), Ward scored and Rutschman scored.

    BAL 3·MIA 0

    −23pp

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

5

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

6

Runs

4

Betting line

MIA -1.5·O/U 8.5·BAL +109/MIA -131

DraftKings · via ESPN
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 8
    ATH 3@PHI 2
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBEnd 4
    CLE 0@KC 1
    +25.2ppmedium
  • MLBBot 7
    BAL 6@MIA 4
    -52.7pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    CIN 2@CHC 4
    +33.7pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    BOS 4@DET 0
    -51.0pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    MIN 2@WSH 8
    +46.2pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    TEX 6@NYY 0
    -64.4pplow
  • NBA9:06 - 3rd
    PHI 69@NY 66
    -19.1pppeak
  • NHLEnd of 2nd
    MTL 2@BUF 4

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

1.9%

-52.7ppvs pre-game · BAL favored

Leverage

7

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Player projections

MIA vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    5.7± 1.9low
  • Eury PerezMIA
    5.6± 2.7low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.0± 2.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Liam HicksMIA
    2.1± 2.4high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    2.1± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 2.1high
  • Liam HicksMIA
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Jeremiah JacksonBAL
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Shane BazBAL
    3.1± 2.1low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    2.9± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.9%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    54.6%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.7%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.5%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

1.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen