Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — May 6, 2026

FINAL+3BAL

BAL

17-20

MIA

16-21

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

6,607 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIA spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIA no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
55.4%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.6%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.1%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.7± 1.7medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.7± 3.6medium
Shane BazBAL
5.2± 2.9medium

Hits

Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.3± 1.3high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 0.7high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.5high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.9± 3.5high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.9± 1.7high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.3± 2.9low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.2± 3.1medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

MIA

.724

OPS

◀

.719

.710

.321

OBP

.319

.323

4.67

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.31

4.45

Team ERA

4.19

▶

4.07

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 7 · MIA 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	7
MIA	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.201	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. WardLF	.285	2	3	0	0	0	3	2
A. RutschmanC	.313	3	1	2	2	0	1	0
P. Alonso1B	.225	5	1	1	3	1	0	1
S. BasalloC	.257	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
L. TaverasCF	.277	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
D. BeaversRF	.217	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
C. Mayo3B	.152	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Jackson2B	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.196	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CowserRF	.179	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Alexander3B	.232	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		32	7	7	7	1	7	9

Player

.201

.285

.313

.225

.257

.277

.217

.152

.250

.196

.179

.232

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. YoungSP	6.0	4	3	3	3	5	93
G. WolframRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	15
A. NunezRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	16
R. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
Team	9.0	6	4	4	4	7	139

Player

6.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.324	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. HicksC	.321	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. Norby1B	.231	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
K. StowersLF	.224	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. MarseeCF	.180	4	1	1	2	0	0	0
C. Morel1B	.235	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. CaissieRF	.202	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
J. MackC	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.301	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.336	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	6	4	0	4	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. PerezSP	5.0	4	5	5	5	6	93
D. FultonSP	4.0	3	2	2	2	3	64
Team	9.0	7	7	7	7	9	157

Team

BAL

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.