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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4BAL
BAL

BAL

21-26

7
3
WSH

WSH

23-24

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
26,715 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 10.0 · +0.5

WSH no-vig %

45.9%

open 44.9% · +1.0

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 11.0O/U 9.5TOTAL49.9%40.9%WSH NO-VIG %May 16, 6 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 7 · WSH 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked WSH +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL1212000017
WSH0101001003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+14.8pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

BAL

no live price

WSH

★ best
+127DraftKings

edge +14.8pp · implied 41.3%

BookBALWSHBest edge
DraftKings-167+127★+14.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 29, 26sim 97
    71
    13(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    36
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 95
    214
    20(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 94
    63
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 94
    17
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 93
    31
    7(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -120

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 7–3.

BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total pushed exactly on 10.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Gunnar Henderson

Gunnar Henderson

SS

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Jacob Young

Jacob Young

CF

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL21-26
7
3
WSH23-24
BAL21-26·WSH23-24
BAL

BAL

21-26

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-44100013
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
4-55142100
SPRINT28.175
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44001002
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-44010001
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-44110000
SPRINT25.310
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
1-33110000
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-44112101
SPRINT2872
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
1-44112102
SPRINT28.175
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT26.530
Team11-36367117319
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. YoungB. Young★SP
3.2522331
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.1000030
T. WellsT. WellsRP
2.0311020
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0000110
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0100020
Team9.09334111
WSH

WSH

23-24

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-44120012
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
2-55020001
SPRINT26.735
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-55010002
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-55011001
SPRINT28.483
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44110002
SPRINT29.395
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-22111110
SPRINT29.496
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-33000011
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
1-22011011
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-44000001
J. VivasJ. Vivas3B
0-11000000
Team9-35353931411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. LoveladyR. Lovelady★RP
1.1222011
M. MikolasM. MikolasSP
5.2644142
B. LordB. LordRP
1.0100020
P. SchultzP. SchultzRP
1.0211020
Team9.01177193

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • B. Young
    70 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      46%·95.0 mph·26% whiff
    • SL
      19%·83.8 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      16%·74.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      14%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Wells
    38 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      50%·90.3 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·87.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·79.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • CH
      33%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      28%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·89.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      17%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    17 pitches·53% CSW
    • CH
      47%·88.0 mph·80% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.5 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      12%·86.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      6%·92.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • SI
      59%·95.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      35%·92.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      6%·95.6 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • M. Mikolas
    93 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      28%·87.0 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      26%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·92.9 mph·8% whiff
    • CU
      11%·76.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      5%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Lovelady
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      33%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      30%·91.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      26%·86.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      11%·90.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Lord
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      33%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      33%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Schultz
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      37%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      32%·93.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      21%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

9

7

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

May 15BALBAL2@WSHWSH3
May 16BALBAL3@WSHWSH13
May 17BALBAL7@WSHWSH3today

Season series

WSH leads series 2-1

May 15BALBAL2@WSHWSH3
May 16BALBAL3@WSHWSH13
May 17BALBAL7@WSHWSH3today
Jun 26WSHWSH@BALBALupcoming
Jun 27WSHWSH@BALBALupcoming
Jun 28WSHWSH@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

BALBAL-12055%
WSHWSH+10050%

↘5· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.0

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 2nd Inning

BALBAL
G. Henderson

G. Henderson

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

B. Young

B. Young

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

WSHWSH
J. Young

J. Young

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Top reliever

5.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat WSH 7-3. Mayo's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+18pp→ 70% WP

Mayo · homered to left (407 feet), Basallo scored.

WSHBottom 2nd Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 39% WP

Young · homered to left (390 feet).

BALTop 4th Inning · 6-1
+12pp→ 90% WP

Cowser · homered to right (394 feet), Taveras scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL1212000017
WSH0101001003

Period scoring

BAL won 5 · WSH won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Henderson 1

2
1

Inn 2

Mayo 2

Young 1

1
0

Inn 3

Alonso 1

2
1

Inn 4

Cowser 2

Ruiz 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Abrams 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Henderson 1

BAL
WSH

Play-by-play · 615 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  3. B9

    Abrams popped out to first.

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

    −0.5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  8. B9

    Rico Garcia pitches to CJ Abrams

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  9. B9

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  10. B9

    House struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

    −2pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  17. B9

    Rico Garcia pitches to Brady House

    · ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  18. B9

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  19. B9

    García Jr. doubled to right.

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

    +2pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  23. B9

    Rico Garcia pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  24. B9

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  25. B9

    Wood struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

    −1pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 7·WSH 3

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

7

Runs

3

11

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

23

TB

14

3

HR

1

1

BB

4

9

K

11

17

LOB

17

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 10·BAL -120/WSH +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.93

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+113

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

WSH vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • James WoodWSH
    2.6± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.9± 1.2high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    56.4%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.4%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.7%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.