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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4WSH
NYM

NYM

21-28

4
8
WSH

WSH

25-25

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
18,642 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

WSH no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL50.8%42.8%WSH NO-VIG %May 19, 10 PMMay 20, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

NYM 4 · WSH 8 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0110000204
WSH310002028

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.3pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

NYM

★ best
+332DraftKings

edge +24.3pp · implied 21.8%

WSH

no live price

BookNYMWSHBest edge
DraftKings+332★-497+24.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.12

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, May 20·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasNYM -126

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off New York Mets, 8–4.

WSH +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Juan Soto

Juan Soto

LF

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
CJ Abrams

CJ Abrams

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM21-28
4
8
WSH25-25
NYM21-28·WSH25-25
NYM

NYM

21-28

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-44223200
SPRINT25.513
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT25.513
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
0-33000001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-22011010
SPRINT26.735
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-44000000
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
1-33010001
H. SengerH. Senger★C
0-22000002
N. MorabitoN. MorabitoLF
0-11000001
T. TaylorT. TaylorCF
0-11000001
L. TorrensL. TorrensC
0-11000000
Team7-3333474218
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
ZZ. Thornton★SP
4.1444231
A. WarrenA. WarrenRP
1.0422000
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
2.2222021
Team8.01088252
WSH

WSH

25-25

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000000
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT26.838
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
0-11100010
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
2-44223100
SPRINT28.483
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-44110002
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-33111000
SPRINT29.395
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
2-44122101
SPRINT29.496
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
0-22101011
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
2-33021000
SPRINT25.411
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.1B
1-22010000
Team10-31318108225
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. LittellZ. Littell★SP
5.0522031
A. AlvarezA. AlvarezRP
4.0222151
Team9.0744182

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • Z. Thornton
    80 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      50%·86.0 mph·18% whiff
    • FF
      28%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·79.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      10%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      84%·94.1 mph·35% whiff
    • ST
      9%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      3%·88.3 mph·— whiff
    • KC
      3%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Warren
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      55%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      32%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      5%·84.8 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • Z. Littell
    60 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      38%·88.0 mph·19% whiff
    • FF
      37%·91.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      18%·83.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      5%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Alvarez
    56 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      34%·84.4 mph·44% whiff
    • CU
      32%·83.7 mph·42% whiff
    • FF
      21%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

4

Runs

8

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 18NYMNYM16@WSHWSH7
May 19NYMNYM6@WSHWSH9
May 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH8today
May 21NYMNYM2@WSHWSH1

Season series

WSH leads series 4-2

Apr 28WSHWSH0@NYMNYM8
Apr 29WSHWSH14@NYMNYM2
Apr 30WSHWSH5@NYMNYM4
May 18NYMNYM16@WSHWSH7
May 19NYMNYM6@WSHWSH9
May 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH8today
May 21NYMNYM2@WSHWSH1
Aug 14WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 15WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 16WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 25NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 26NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 27NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYMNYM-12656%
WSHWSH+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 1st Inning

NYMNYM
J. Soto

J. Soto

LF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

Z. Thornton

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

WSHWSH
C. Abrams

C. Abrams

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 5 H

How it ended

WSH beat NYM 8-4. Abrams's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

WSH vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 1st Inning · 0-3
+18pp→ 85% WP

Abrams · homered to right center (389 feet), Mead scored and Chaparro scored.

WSHBottom 2nd Inning · 1-4
+6pp→ 87% WP

Ruiz · singled to left, Nuñez scored.

NYMTop 3rd Inning · 2-4
+6pp→ 19% WP

Soto · homered to right (416 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0110000204
WSH31000202—8

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · WSH won 2

0
3

Inn 1

Abrams 3

1
1

Inn 2

Baty 1

Ruiz 1

1
0

Inn 3

Soto 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Lile 1

0
0

Inn 7

2
2

Inn 8

Soto 2

Young 2

0

Inn 9

NYM
WSH

Play-by-play · 501 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  2. T9

    Semien lined out to center.

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  6. T9

    Andrew Alvarez pitches to Marcus Semien

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  7. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  8. T9

    Taylor struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  15. T9

    Andrew Alvarez pitches to Tyrone Taylor

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  16. T9

    Taylor hit for Baty

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  17. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  18. T9

    Morabito struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

    +0.8pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  23. T9

    Andrew Alvarez pitches to Nick Morabito

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  24. T9

    Morabito hit for Melendez

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  27. B8

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  28. B8

    Nasim Nuñez challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Nasim Nuñez called out on strikes.

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 8

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

4

Runs

8

7

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

14

TB

19

2

HR

2

1

BB

2

8

K

5

6

LOB

5

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 9.5·NYM -126/WSH +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

WSH vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.7± 3.3low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.8± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.6± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.9± 1.2high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    54.8%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.5%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.5%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 12, 26sim 97
    62
    21(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 97
    216
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 95
    17
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 95
    64
    21(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 95
    13
    20(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 95
    17
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs