Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at NYY?

The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — May 4, 2026

FINAL+11NYY

BAL

15-20

112

NYY

24-11

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

36,802 attended

Line movement

113 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

NYY no-vig %

66.9%

open 63.6% · +3.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.3%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
67.9%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
70.7%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.2%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.24

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-199

Close price

-232

Open no-vig

63.6%

Close no-vig

66.9%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at NYY?: The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

NYY vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.8± 3.2medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.2± 3.6low
Carlos RodonNYY
5.9± 2.3low

Hits

Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.3± 1.3high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.9high
Ben RiceNYY
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Ben RiceNYY
2.3± 2.2high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.3± 2.0high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.5high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.1high
Ben RiceNYY
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.3± 2.9low
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.5low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

NYY

.724

OPS

.719

▶

.771

.321

OBP

.319

▶

.332

4.67

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.12

4.45

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.35

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

BAL 1 · NYY 12 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +18pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
NYY	2	0	1	0	0	3	0	6	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.208	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. RutschmanC	.289	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. BeaversRF	.218	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
P. Alonso1B	.215	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. BasalloC	.234	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.280	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. CowserRF	.194	2	0	1	1	0	2	0
J. Jackson2B	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander3B	.221	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
Team		35	1	10	1	0	3	8

Player

.208

.289

.218

.215

.234

.280

.194

.259

.221

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BazSP	5.2	5	6	5	5	4	96
Y. CanoRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	9
K. AkinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
L. TrivinoRP	0.2	4	6	6	3	0	31
We. Wilson3B	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	8.0	10	12	11	8	4	145

Player

5.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.176	3	3	2	1	0	2	0
A. JudgeRF	.272	4	2	2	4	1	1	0
C. BellingerLF	.274	4	1	1	3	0	0	0
J. DominguezDH	.273	4	1	1	1	0	1	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.213	4	2	1	0	0	1	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.179	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. WellsC	.198	2	2	0	0	0	2	1
R. McMahon3B	.202	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.261	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
M. SchuemannSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	12	10	11	1	8	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SchlittlerSP	5.2	7	1	1	3	4	95
J. BirdRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
T. HillRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	12
C. DovalRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	8
P. BlackburnRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	17
Team	9.0	10	1	1	3	8	136

Team

BAL

NYY

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

NYY vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.