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MID 7TH+5NYY↑
BAL

BAL

15-19

1
6
NYY

NYY

23-11

Live · model leanMid 7thPolls every 30s

79.9%

NYY wins · current

Pre-game: 67.5% NYY

BAL 1 · 6 NYY

NYY +5

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 6.01

S. Baz

1-2 · 4.50 ERA

vs

C. Schlittler

4-1 · 1.51 ERA

Line movement

68 snapshots

NYY spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

NYY implied %

69.9%

open 66.6% · +3.3

-1.0-2.0NYY SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL75.1%62.6%NYY IMPLIED %MODEL 67.5%May 3, 5 PMMay 4, 9 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYY favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

The One model★ Lock
● Live
BAL1

BAL

Orioles

15-19

vs68%NYY

NYY★

Yankees

23-11

NYY5
BAL 32%win prob68% NYY
NYY 1578 · BAL 1475Box score→

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 66-48
55%Last 30 · 237-196
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, May 4·Mid 7th/SeriesNYY lead series 3-0/VegasNYY -232
Line just movedMoneyline ↘ 13 over 6.2h15m ago
Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

BAL · NYY

BAL

BAL

15-19

1
G. Henderson

G. Henderson★

SS

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

A. Rutschman

A. Rutschman★

C

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

D. Beavers

D. Beavers★

RF

OPS

0.500

H-AB

1-4

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

P. Alonso

P. Alonso★

1B

OPS

0.667

H-AB

1-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

S. Basallo

S. Basallo★

C

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

L. Taveras

L. Taveras★

CF

OPS

0.333

H-AB

0-2

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

C. Cowser

C. Cowser★

RF

OPS

2.000

H-AB

1-1

R

0

RBI

1

HR

0

J. Jackson

J. Jackson★

2B

OPS

0.667

H-AB

1-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

B. Alexander

B. Alexander★

3B

OPS

1.333

H-AB

2-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

8-27

R

1

RBI

1

HR

0

PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
G. Henderson
G. Henderson★SS
1-40000.500
A. Rutschman
A. Rutschman★C
1-40000.500
D. Beavers
D. Beavers★RF
1-41000.500
P. Alonso
P. Alonso★1B
1-30000.667
S. Basallo
S. Basallo★C
0-30000.000
L. Taveras
L. Taveras★CF
0-20000.333
C. Cowser
C. Cowser★RF
1-10102.000
J. Jackson
J. Jackson★2B
1-30000.667
B. Alexander
B. Alexander★3B
2-30001.333
Team8-27110—
S. Baz

S. Baz★

SP

IP

5.2

H

5

ER

5

K

4

Y. Cano

Y. Cano

RP

IP

0.1

H

1

ER

0

K

0

Team total

IP

6.0

H

6

ER

5

K

4

PlayerIPHERK
S. Baz
S. Baz★SP
5.2554
Y. Cano
Y. CanoRP
0.1100
Team6.0654
NYY

NYY

23-11

6
T. Grisham

T. Grisham★

CF

OPS

1.417

H-AB

2-3

R

2

RBI

0

HR

0

A. Judge

A. Judge★

RF

OPS

2.667

H-AB

1-2

R

1

RBI

2

HR

1

C. Bellinger

C. Bellinger★

LF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-2

R

0

RBI

1

HR

0

J. Dominguez

J. Dominguez★

LF

OPS

0.333

H-AB

0-2

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

J. Chisholm Jr.

J. Chisholm Jr.★

2B

OPS

0.333

H-AB

0-2

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

P. Goldschmidt

P. Goldschmidt★

1B

OPS

0.667

H-AB

1-3

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

A. Wells

A. Wells★

C

OPS

0.333

H-AB

0-2

R

1

RBI

0

HR

0

R. McMahon

R. McMahon★

3B

OPS

0.667

H-AB

1-3

R

0

RBI

1

HR

0

J. Caballero

J. Caballero★

SS

OPS

0.667

H-AB

1-3

R

0

RBI

1

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

6-22

R

6

RBI

5

HR

1

PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
T. Grisham
T. Grisham★CF
2-32001.417
A. Judge
A. Judge★RF
1-21212.667
C. Bellinger
C. Bellinger★LF
0-20100.000
J. Dominguez
J. Dominguez★LF
0-21000.333
J. Chisholm Jr.
J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
0-21000.333
P. Goldschmidt
P. Goldschmidt★1B
1-30000.667
A. Wells
A. Wells★C
0-21000.333
R. McMahon
R. McMahon★3B
1-30100.667
J. Caballero
J. Caballero★SS
1-30100.667
Team6-22651—
C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler★

SP

IP

5.2

H

7

ER

1

K

4

J. Bird

J. Bird

RP

IP

0.1

H

0

ER

0

K

1

T. Hill

T. Hill

RP

IP

1.0

H

1

ER

0

K

2

Team total

IP

7.0

H

8

ER

1

K

7

PlayerIPHERK
C. Schlittler
C. Schlittler★SP
5.2714
J. Bird
J. BirdRP
0.1001
T. Hill
T. HillRP
1.0102
Team7.0817

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

1

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYY lead series 3-0

May 1BALBAL2@NYYNYY7
May 2BALBAL4@NYYNYY9
May 3BALBAL3@NYYNYY11
May 4BALBAL@NYYNYYtoday

Season series

NYY lead series 3-0

May 1BALBAL2@NYYNYY7
May 2BALBAL4@NYYNYY9
May 3BALBAL3@NYYNYY11
May 4BALBAL@NYYNYYtoday
May 11NYYNYY@BALBALupcoming
May 12NYYNYY@BALBALupcoming
May 13NYYNYY@BALBALupcoming
Aug 18NYYNYY@BALBALupcoming
Aug 19NYYNYY@BALBALupcoming
Aug 20NYYNYY@BALBALupcoming
Sep 25BALBAL@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 26BALBAL@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 27BALBAL@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+18935%
NYYNYY-23270%

↘13· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 68 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
BALBALSP
S. Baz

S. Baz

#34 · 1-2

ERA

4.50

K

29

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/28vsHOUHOU5.2 IP · 1 ER · 6 KW(1-2)
4/21@KCKC6.1 IP · 4 ER · 4 K-
4/16@CLECLE6.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 KL(0-2)
VS
NYYNYYSP
C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

#31 · 4-1

ERA

1.51

K

49

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/29@TEXTEX6.0 IP · 0 ER · 8 KW(4-1)
4/23@BOSBOS8.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(3-1)
4/17vsKCKC6.0 IP · 0 ER · 6 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
BALBAL4L · 3R · 2S
  1. 1

    G. Henderson

    SS · #2

    L
  2. 2

    A. Rutschman

    C · #35

    B
  3. 3

    D. Beavers

    RF · #12

    L
  4. 4

    P. Alonso

    1B · #25

    R
  5. 5

    S. Basallo

    DH · #29

    L
  6. 6

    L. Taveras

    CF · #30

    B
  7. 7

    C. Cowser

    LF · #17

    L
  8. 8

    J. Jackson

    2B · #82

    R
  9. 9

    B. Alexander

    3B · #23

    R
NYYNYY5L · 3R · 1S
  1. 1

    T. Grisham

    CF · #12

    L
  2. 2

    A. Judge

    RF · #99

    R
  3. 3

    C. Bellinger

    LF · #35

    L
  4. 4

    J. Dominguez

    DH · #24

    B
  5. 5

    J. Chisholm Jr.

    2B · #13

    L
  6. 6

    P. Goldschmidt

    1B · #48

    R
  7. 7

    A. Wells

    C · #28

    L
  8. 8

    R. McMahon

    3B · #19

    L
  9. 9

    J. Caballero

    SS · #72

    R

Live · top performers so far

Mid 7th
Game flowBAL ↔ NYY

Recent swing: 8pp · Top 6th Inning

Just happened

Middle of the 7th inning

BALBAL
C. Cowser

C. Cowser

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 5 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 6 ER

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 1 ER

How it's going

NYY lead BAL 6-1 (Mid 7th).

Win probability

NYY vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5T6T7
BAL1
NYY6

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 87% WP

Judge · homered to right center (416 feet), Grisham scored.

NYYTop 3rd Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 85% WP

Rutschman · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Henderson out at second, Alexander to third.

NYYTop 5th Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 91% WP

Alexander · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Jackson out at second, Cowser to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567R
BAL00000101
NYY201003—6

Period scoring

BAL won 0 · NYY won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Judge 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Bellinger 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
3

Inn 6

Cowser 1

Wells 1

0

Inn 7

BAL
NYY

Game flow · key plays

  1. T6

    Jackson struck out swinging.

    BAL 1·NYY 3

    +8pp

  2. T6

    Cowser walked, Beavers scored, Taveras to second, Alonso to third.

    BAL 1·NYY 3

    −7pp

  3. T5

    Alexander grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Jackson out at second, Cowser to third.

    BAL 0·NYY 3

    +8pp

  4. T3

    Rutschman grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Henderson out at second, Alexander to third.

    BAL 0·NYY 2

    +8pp

  5. B1

    Judge homered to right center (416 feet), Grisham scored.

    BAL 0·NYY 2

    +8pp

  6. B1

    Grisham doubled to center.

    BAL 0·NYY 0

    +6pp

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

8

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

1

Runs

6

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8.5·BAL +189/NYY -232

DraftKings · via ESPN