Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at PHX?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+34MIN

MIN

7-2

11177

PHX

2-8

WNBAMon, Jun 1FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-0VegasMIN -2.5

MIN · top performer

Courtney Williams

G · #10

22.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Kahleah Copper

G · #2

9.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 3:56

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	23	11	5-7	—	1-1	+21	4	3
N. CoffeyF · #12	22	8	3-5	2-4	—	+16	6	2
K. McBrideG · #21	22	7	3-7	1-4	—	+19	0	5
C. WilliamsG · #10	29	30	13-20	3-3	1-1	+20	5	2
O. MilesG · #5	28	19	7-9	—	5-5	+23	4	10
Bench
A. DelaereF · #8	24	13	4-6	3-4	2-2	+23	2	6
A. KosuF · #7	18	12	4-6	—	4-4	+18	6	0
T. McCowanC · #15	16	6	3-4	—	—	+13	6	0
M. CaldwellG · #3	18	5	2-5	1-2	—	+17	2	0
Team		111	44-69	10-17	13-13		35	28
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	25	6	1-6	—	4-4	-27	3	5
N. MackF · #4	20	4	2-4	—	—	-20	11	1
N. BrochantF · #1	24	11	4-8	3-6	—	-22	2	0
K. CopperG · #2	27	18	5-13	3-7	5-8	-28	2	1
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	24	10	1-6	0-3	8-8	-23	0	5
Bench
D. BonnerF · #24	7	2	1-5	0-1	—	-14	1	0
V. AyayiF · #11	11	0	0-3	0-1	—	-2	1	4
K. LinskensC · #31	20	7	3-7	1-3	—	-14	3	0
J. NogicG · #29	16	8	3-6	2-4	—	-11	1	0
L. HeldG · #10	15	5	1-3	1-2	2-2	-7	0	0
Q. CarterG · #20	10	6	1-3	—	4-5	-2	0	2
Team		77	22-64	10-27	23-27		24	18
DNP: S. Whitcomb

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

44-69

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

22-64

FG %

10-17

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-27

13-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 3-0

May 13

MIN88@

PHX84

Jun 2

MIN111@

PHX77today

Jul 14

PHX100@

MIN104

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -2.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

166.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-14860%

PHX+12445%

26· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗SpreadBet MIN -2.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

+2.0 since open

Total

166.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat PHX 111-77. C. Williams paced them with 30 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 32-18 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 19 REB · 22 AST

GS 73

Bench(4)

36 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST

GS 35

PHXstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

49 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST

GS 35

Bench(6)

28 PTS · 6 REB · 6 AST

GS 16

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX1st Quarter · 5:00 · 19-10

+6pp→ 34% WP

Kayla McBride · shooting foul

MIN1st Quarter · 3:56 · 22-16

+7pp→ 62% WP

Courtney Williams · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kayla McBride assists)

PHX1st Quarter · 5:05 · 19-10

+7pp→ 30% WP

Natasha Howard · lost ball turnover (Kyara Linskens steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	35	32	21	23	111
PHX	22	18	16	21	77

Period scoring

MIN won 4 · PHX won 0

Williams 12

Makani 9

Howard 8

Makani 8

Williams 9

Copper 7

Kosu 8

Nogic 8

MIN

PHX

Shooting comparison

MIN

PHX

64%

44-69

34%

22-64

59%

10-17

3PT

37%

10-27

100%

13-13

85%

23-27

Play-by-play · 357 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 111·PHX 77
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 111·PHX 77
Q4·4.0
shot clock turnover
MIN 111·PHX 77
Q4·26.8
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
MIN 111·PHX 77
Q4·29.0
Lexi Held misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 111·PHX 77
Q4·42.5
Olivia Miles enters the game for Teaira McCowan
·
MIN 111·PHX 77
Q4·42.5
Teaira McCowan loose ball foul
MIN 111·PHX 77
Q4·42.5
Mercury defensive team rebound
MIN 111·PHX 77
Q4·43.7
Courtney Williams misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 111·PHX 77
Q4·57.4
Jovana Nogic makes 25-foot three pointer
MIN 111·PHX 77
Q4·1:04
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes driving layup
MIN 111·PHX 74
Q4·1:17
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
MIN 109·PHX 74
Q4·1:20
Kyara Linskens misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 109·PHX 74
Q4·1:36
Courtney Williams makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 109·PHX 74
Q4·1:43
Sha Carter makes technical free throw
MIN 107·PHX 74
Q4·1:43
Teaira McCowan technical foul
MIN 107·PHX 73
Q4·1:57
Kyara Linskens makes 5-foot layup (Valeriane Ayayi assists)
·
MIN 107·PHX 73
Q4·2:10
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 107·PHX 71
Q4·2:10
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 106·PHX 71
Q4·2:10
Valeriane Ayayi shooting foul
MIN 105·PHX 71
Q4·2:10
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound
MIN 105·PHX 71
Q4·2:10
Maya Caldwell misses 7-foot turnaround jump shot
MIN 105·PHX 71
Q4·2:14
Maya Caldwell defensive rebound
MIN 105·PHX 71
Q4·2:17
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu blocks Sha Carter 's 4-foot layup
·
MIN 105·PHX 71
Q4·2:26
Maya Caldwell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Antonia Delaere assists)
·
MIN 105·PHX 71
Q4·2:48
Sha Carter makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 102·PHX 71
Q4·2:48
Sha Carter makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 102·PHX 70
Q4·2:48
Lynx Full timeout
MIN 102·PHX 69
Q4·2:48
Teaira McCowan shooting foul
MIN 102·PHX 69
Q4·2:58
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu makes 4-foot layup (Antonia Delaere assists)
·
MIN 102·PHX 69

Betting line

MIN -2.5·O/U 166.5·MIN -148/PHX +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 111–77. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -2.5 cashed (won by 34). Total cleared the 166.5 OVER by 21.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

MIN

PHX

eFG%

shooting

71.0%

42.2%

TOV%

ball control

12.8%

15.6%

OREB%

offensive glass

38.1%

28.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

18.8%

35.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

24.7%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
36.8%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
36.7%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
38.4%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+5.06

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-130

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at PHX?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.7pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

MIN

★ best

-148DraftKings

edge +18.7pp · implied 57.2%

PHX

no live price

Book	MIN	PHX	Best edge
DraftKings	-148★	+124	+18.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHX vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 75 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 8.1high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high

Rebounds

Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.5± 2.7high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
7.0± 2.1high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Courtney WilliamsMIN
4.5± 2.1high

Blocks

Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.2high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Minnesota LynxPhoenix Mercury

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Storm56Wings79Final

Data via ESPN · wehoop