May 10, 26sim 92
17105
6(H)78
EloWin probTime of year
MIN
96Live5:37 - 4th
PHX
64Updated 11:46 PM ET
Live read
Monique Akoa Makani enters the game for Noemie Brochant → win prob 70→77% MIN
5:37 - 4TH+32MIN
MIN
6-2
9664
PHX
2-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 375 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
1 of 16 players in cohort
Kahleah CopperPHX · GUSG%.30999+
Updated 0s ago
MIN · top performer
Courtney Williams
G · #10
23.2Game score
28
Pts
4
Reb
1
Ast
PHX · top performer
Kahleah Copper
G · #2
9.6Game score
18
Pts
2
Reb
1
Ast
WNBA · Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury · live
WNBA · Box score
5:37 - 4th
MIN6-2
9664
PHX2-7
MIN6-2PHX2-7
MIN
6-2
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 23 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +21 | |
| 22 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +16 | |
| 22 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +19 | |
| 22 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +18 | |
| 27 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +23 | |
| 18 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +21 | |
| 12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +16 | |
| 11 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +11 | |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +15 | |
| Team | 96 | 27 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | ||
| DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova | ||||||||
PHX
2-7
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | ||||||||
| 25 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -27 | |
TS%.57667 ORB%.05367 DRB%.21067 | ||||||||
| 20 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -20 | |
| 24 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -22 | |
| 27 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -28 | |
USG%.30999+ ORB%.00811 TS%.4510 | ||||||||
| 24 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -23 | |
| 13 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -12 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | |
| 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | |
| Team | 64 | 24 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 14 | ||
| DNP: S. Whitcomb | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
66
FG %
32
24
Ast
15
Season series
MIN leads series 1-0
May 13MIN88@PHX84
MIN88@PHX84Jun 2MIN@PHXtoday
MIN@PHXtodayJul 14PHX@MINupcoming
PHX@MINupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -2.5
Between — and 5
1.0pt· 6.3h
Total
166.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN-14860%PHX+12445%26· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
+2.0 since open
Total
166.5
-1.0 since open
Live · top performers so far
5:37 - 4thGame flowMIN ↔ PHX
Just happened
Official timeout
MINC. Williams
GLeading · 5:37 - 4th · 22 min
28 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 51 PTS · 7 REB · 2 AST
PHXK. Copper
GLeading · 5:37 - 4th · 27 min
18 PTS · 2 REB · 1 AST
On pace: 27 PTS · 3 REB · 1 AST
How it's going
MIN lead PHX 96-64 (5:37 - 4th). C. Williams paced them with 28 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST. MIN have outscored the other side 32-18 in the 2nd quarter.
Win probability
PHX vs MIN
Starters vs bench
production by unitMINstarters 76% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 18 REB · 20 AST
GS 73
Bench(4)
23 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST
GS 20
PHXstarters 77% of ptsStarters(5)
49 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST
GS 35
Bench(6)
15 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST
GS 5
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactPHX1st Quarter · 5:00 · 19-10
+6pp→ 34% WP
Kayla McBride · shooting foul
MIN1st Quarter · 3:56 · 22-16
+7pp→ 62% WP
Courtney Williams · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kayla McBride assists)
PHX1st Quarter · 5:05 · 19-10
+7pp→ 30% WP
Natasha Howard · lost ball turnover (Kyara Linskens steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 35 | 32 | 21 | 8 | 96 |
| PHX | 22 | 18 | 16 | 8 | 64 |
Period scoring
MIN won 3 · PHX won 0
35
22
Q1
Williams 12
Makani 9
32
18
Q2
Howard 8
Makani 8
21
16
Q3
Williams 9
Copper 7
8
8
Q4
Delaere 6
Nogic 3
MIN
PHX
Shooting comparison
MIN
PHX
66%
38-58
FG
32%
18-56
60%
9-15
3PT
39%
9-23
100%
11-11
FT
86%
19-22
Play-by-play · 305 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·5:37
Official timeout
MIN 96·PHX 64
- Q4·5:46
Teaira McCowan defensive rebound
MIN 96·PHX 64
- Q4·5:50
Valeriane Ayayi misses 6-foot floating jump shot
MIN 96·PHX 64
- Q4·6:03
Maya Caldwell enters the game for Olivia Miles
·
MIN 96·PHX 64
- Q4·6:03
Teaira McCowan offensive foul turnover
MIN 96·PHX 64
- Q4·6:03
Teaira McCowan offensive foul
MIN 96·PHX 64
- Q4·6:21
Lexi Held makes 25-foot three point jumper (Valeriane Ayayi assists)
·
MIN 96·PHX 64
- Q4·6:30
Teaira McCowan makes two point shot
MIN 96·PHX 61
- Q4·6:31
Teaira McCowan offensive rebound
MIN 94·PHX 61
- Q4·6:33
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses driving layup
MIN 94·PHX 61
- Q4·6:46
Courtney Williams offensive rebound
MIN 94·PHX 61
- Q4·6:47
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu misses running layup
MIN 94·PHX 61
- Q4·6:53
Jovana Nogic bad pass turnover (Anastasiia Olairi Kosu steals)
·
MIN 94·PHX 61
- Q4·7:05
Antonia Delaere makes 24-foot three point jumper (Olivia Miles assists)
·
MIN 94·PHX 61
- Q4·7:17
Kyara Linskens loose ball foul
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·7:17
Lynx offensive team rebound
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·7:18
Courtney Williams misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·7:23
Antonia Delaere defensive rebound
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·7:26
Kyara Linskens misses 17-foot jumper
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·7:30
Mercury offensive team rebound
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·7:30
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu blocks Sha Carter 's 8-foot driving layup
·
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·7:42
Courtney Williams enters the game for Maya Caldwell
·
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·7:42
Olivia Miles out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·7:52
Antonia Delaere defensive rebound
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·7:55
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu blocks Lexi Held 's 9-foot two point shot
·
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·8:12
Antonia Delaere makes 23-foot three point jumper (Olivia Miles assists)
·
MIN 91·PHX 61
- Q4·8:27
Sha Carter makes layup (Valeriane Ayayi assists)
·
MIN 88·PHX 61
- Q4·8:42
Valeriane Ayayi defensive rebound
MIN 88·PHX 59
- Q4·8:47
Maya Caldwell misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIN 88·PHX 59
- Q4·8:59
Jovana Nogic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sha Carter assists)
·
MIN 88·PHX 59
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
PHX
Home
38-58
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
18-56
66
FG %
32
9-15
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
9-23
11-11
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
19-22
24
Assists
15
10
Turnovers
14
Betting line
MIN -2.5·O/U 166.5·MIN -148/PHX +124
Live momentum · cumulative diff
Q4away leadsPHX leads
Key moments · live
newest firstEnsemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
32.8%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
30%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
36%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Live · model intelligence
calibrated · 90d
Win prob · home
1.0%
-36.0ppvs pre-game · MIN favored
Leverage
±2.6
pp · next play
low · 5/100
Mostly decided
Live edge
—
No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.
Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.
Receipts
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+5.06
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-130
Close price
-162
Open no-vig
54.3%
Close no-vig
59.3%
Market steamed in our direction
Player props
Player projections
PHX vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
95
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX18.3± 7.0low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX15.4± 7.0low
- Natasha HowardMIN15.3± 11.8low
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.2± 4.6low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 4.8low
- Alyssa ThomasPHX7.0± 3.8low
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.2± 1.9low
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.9low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.2± 2.5low
Blocks
- Natasha MackPHX1.3± 1.8low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.1± 1.4low
- Liatu KingMIN0.9± 1.6low
Steals
- Alyssa ThomasPHX2.0± 1.6low
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.6low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN1.3± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team rate stats
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
MIN
league avg
PHX
50.1%
FG%
◀
44.6
42.3%
34.5%
3PT %
◀
32.6
31.4%
88.4
PPG
◀
85.4
83.7
21.1
Assists / G
◀
18.0
17.7
15.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.4