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    NYM 2@SEA 2
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    LAD 1@ARI 2
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    COL 3@LAA 6
    +37.4pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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COL
3
LiveTop 7th
LAA logo
LAA
6
Updated 11:48 PM ET
Live read

Siri homered to left center (390 feet), Soler scored, Adell scored and Peraza scored. → win prob 61→90% LAA

TOP 7TH+3LAA↑
COL

COL

22-38

3
6
LAA

LAA

23-37

MLB · At bat

Top 7·0-0·1 out

Pitcher· LAA

R. Zeferjahn

0.1 IP, 0 ER

Batter· COL

E. Tovar

0-3, 3 K

Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s

71.2%

LAA wins · current

Pre-game: 62.6% LAA

COL 3 · 6 LAA

LAA +3

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7
away leadsLAA leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingLAABottom 3rd Inning · 2-5
    +29pp→ 90% WP

    Siri · homered to left center (390 feet), Soler scored, Adell scored and Peraza scored.

  • ↺Lead flipCOLBottom 3rd Inning · 2-0
    +7pp→ 54% WP

    Grissom · flied out to right.

  • ↺Lead flipCOLTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
    +12pp→ 56% WP

    McCarthy · homered to center (397 feet).

  • ↑SwingCOLTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
    +8pp→ 45% WP

    Julien · walked.

  • ↑SwingCOLTop 1st Inning · 1-0
    +8pp→ 37% WP

    Johnston · singled to center, Freeman scored.

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.73

K. Freeland

1-6 · 8.08 ERA

vs

J. Soriano

6-4 · 2.65 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAA no-vig %

65.6%

open 64.5% · +1.2

-1.0-2.0LAA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL69.6%59.6%LAA NO-VIG %MODEL 62.6%May 31, 4 PMJun 1, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
● Live
COL2

COL

Rockies

22-46

vs62.6%LAA

LAA★

Angels

25-41

LAA5
COL 37.4%win prob62.6% LAA
LAA 1431 · COL 1373Box score→

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21+

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Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+24.4pp

best edge · COL · DraftKings

COL

★ best
+620DraftKings

edge +24.4pp · implied 13.0%

LAA

no live price

BookCOLLAABest edge
DraftKings+620★-1260+24.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.16

CLV pp

Open price

+169

Close price

+178

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

34.4%

Market faded the model

MLB·Mon, Jun 1·Top 7th/Seriestied 1-1/VegasLAA -198
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1K. FreelandCOL−38.4pp
  2. 2O. PerazaLAA+36.8pp
  3. 3J. AdellLAA+35.5pp

COL · top performer

COL
Jake McCarthy

Jake McCarthy

CF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Jose Siri

Jose Siri

LF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels · live

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Top 7th
COL22-38
3
6
LAA23-37
COL22-38·LAA23-37
COL

COL

22-38

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
1-331111115.8
SPRINT29.698
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
0-331000110.7
SPRINT27.148
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-330000119.5
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-440210002.1
SPRINT26.326
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-111000200.1
SPRINT27.969
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-330000039.2
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-110000216.3
S. ThompsonS. Thompson★RF
1-220110114.3
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-220000006.0
Team4-2222343188—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
K. FreelandK. Freeland★SP
5.276514138.4
S. HalvorsenS. HalvorsenRP
0.10000100.8
Team6.0765151—
LAA

LAA

23-37

6
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. SolerJ. Soler★DH
2-4412000035.3
SPRINT2622
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-4401000211.9
V. GrissomV. Grissom★2B
0-221000109.9
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
1-3311100135.5
SPRINT27.867
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-3311000036.8
SPRINT28.278
J. SiriJ. Siri★LF
1-3311410024.7
N. MadrigalN. Madrigal★3B
0-330000003.7
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-330000021.5
D. WaltonD. Walton★3B
1-331100009.6
Team7-2828675115—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
4.233277116.6
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
1.11000101.8
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
0.10001000.0
Team6.1432881—

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

7

3

Runs

6

4

Errors

1

Season series

Jun 2COLCOL@LAALAAtoday
Jun 3COLCOL@LAALAAupcoming
Jun 4COLCOL@LAALAAupcoming

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 24LAALAA5@COLCOL7
Mar 15COLCOL5@LAALAA6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+16238%
LAALAA-19866%

↘20· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
COLCOLSP
K. Freeland

K. Freeland

#21 · 1-6

ERA

8.08

K

39

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/27@LADLAD4.0 IP · 8 ER · 4 KL(1-6)
5/20vsTEXTEX4.2 IP · 3 ER · 4 K-
5/16vsARIARI3.2 IP · 7 ER · 3 KL(1-5)
VS
LAALAASP
J. Soriano

J. Soriano

#59 · 6-4

ERA

2.65

K

78

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/27@DETDET5.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 KL(6-4)
5/22vsATHATH6.2 IP · 2 ER · 7 K-
5/17vsLADLAD5.1 IP · 6 ER · 6 KL(6-3)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
COLCOL4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    J. McCarthy

    CF · #31

    L
  2. 2

    T. Freeman

    RF · #2

    R
  3. 3

    H. Goodman

    C · #15

    R
  4. 4

    T. Johnston

    LF · #20

    L
  5. 5

    W. Castro

    2B · #3

    B
  6. 6

    E. Tovar

    SS · #14

    R
  7. 7

    E. Julien

    1B · #6

    L
  8. 8

    S. Thompson

    DH · #30

    L
  9. 9

    K. Karros

    3B · #12

    R
LAALAA1L · 8R
  1. 1

    J. Soler

    DH · #12

    R
  2. 2

    M. Trout

    CF · #27

    R
  3. 3

    V. Grissom

    1B · #5

    R
  4. 4

    J. Adell

    RF · #7

    R
  5. 5

    O. Peraza

    SS · #2

    R
  6. 6

    J. Siri

    LF · #28

    R
  7. 7

    N. Madrigal

    2B · #17

    R
  8. 8

    L. O'Hoppe

    C · #14

    R
  9. 9

    D. Walton

    3B · #35

    L

Live · top performers so far

Top 7th
Game flowCOL ↔ LAA

Recent swing: 6pp · Top 5th Inning

COLCOL
J. McCarthy

J. McCarthy

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

K. Freeland

K. Freeland

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 6 ER

LAALAA
J. Siri

J. Siri

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 7 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 11 K · 3 ER

How it's going

LAA lead COL 6-3 (Top 7th). Siri's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

LAA vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+8pp→ 45% WP

Julien · walked.

COLTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 56% WP

McCarthy · homered to center (397 feet).

LAABottom 3rd Inning · 2-5
+29pp→ 90% WP

Siri · homered to left center (390 feet), Soler scored, Adell scored and Peraza scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567R
COL10101003
LAA005010—6

Period scoring

COL won 1 · LAA won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Johnston 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
5

Inn 3

McCarthy 1

Siri 4

0
0

Inn 4

1
1

Inn 5

Thompson 1

Madrigal 1

0
0

Inn 6

0

Inn 7

COL
LAA

Play-by-play · 450 plays

period
event
player
  1. T7

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  2. T7

    Castro walked.

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

    −2pp

  3. T7

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  4. T7

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  5. T7

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  6. T7

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  7. T7

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  8. T7

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  9. T7

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  10. T7

    Ryan Zeferjahn pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  11. T7

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  12. T7

    Johnston lined out to center.

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

    +2pp

  13. T7

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  14. T7

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  15. T7

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  16. T7

    Ryan Zeferjahn pitches to Troy Johnston

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  17. T7

    Zeferjahn relieved Silseth

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  18. T7

    Top of the 7th inning

    COL 3·LAA 6

  19. End 6t

    End of the 6th inning

    COL 3·LAA 6

  20. B6

    · ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  21. B6

    Trout struck out swinging.

    · ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

    −0.8pp

  22. B6

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  23. B6

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  24. B6

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  25. B6

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  26. B6

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  27. B6

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  28. B6

    Seth Halvorsen pitches to Mike Trout

    · ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  29. B6

    Halvorsen relieved Freeland

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

  30. B6

    ·

    COL 3·LAA 6

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

3

Runs

6

4

Hits

7

4

Errors

1

7

TB

10

1

HR

1

8

BB

1

8

K

5

17

LOB

17

Betting line

LAA -1.5·O/U 8·COL +162/LAA -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+37.4ppvs pre-game · LAA favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

LAA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.9± 4.2low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Oswald PerazaLAA
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.9± 2.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Oswald PerazaLAA
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    0.9± 1.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.9± 2.1low
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.8%

ensemble · LAA favored

  • Elo Static

    61.6%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.1%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.2%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. Line OutST 83#3
  2. Strike LookingFF 96#1
  3. BallST 84#2
  4. BallST 86#3
  5. Strike SwingingFF 96#4
  6. BallFF 97#5
  7. Foul BallFF 98#6
  8. BallFF 98#7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 982 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 24, 26sim 81
    274
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 81
    37
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 78
    272
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 77
    30
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 77
    273
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 76
    273
    21(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

62%Last 7 · 68-41
62%Last 30 · 328-203
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