Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at ATH?

The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Kansas City Royals vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 28, 2026

FINAL+3KC

12-17

ATH

15-14

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

9,274 attended

Line movement

47 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

ATH no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.2%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
56.4%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.5%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in KC at ATH?: The model favors ATH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

ATH vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gage JumpATH
5.2± 2.0low
Noah CameronKC
5.2± 2.9low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.8medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.4± 1.1high
Carter JensenKC
1.3± 1.0high
Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Nick KurtzATH
2.5± 2.7high
Zack GelofATH
2.3± 1.6high
Carter JensenKC
2.3± 2.4high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
1.0± 1.7high
Carter JensenKC
0.8± 0.9high
Max MuncyATH
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.4± 2.0medium
Aaron CivaleATH
2.8± 3.6low
Seth LugoKC
2.8± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ATH

.713

OPS

.718

▶

.749

.320

OBP

.319

▶

.329

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.67

4.53

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.00

1.39

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.45

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 4 · ATH 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
KC	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	4
ATH	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.269	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.289	5	1	1	3	1	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.167	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
S. PerezC	.196	5	1	2	1	1	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. ThomasCF	.236	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
I. CollinsLF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Loftin2B	.276	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.290	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Massey2B	.239	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JensenC	.265	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. MarteRF	.241	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	8	4	2	3	7

Player

.269

.289

.167

.196

.250

.236

.222

.276

.290

.239

.265

.241

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BubicSP	5.0	4	1	1	4	6	96
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	20
M. StrahmRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	2	26
N. MearsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
L. ErcegRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	23
Team	10.0	8	1	1	6	11	192

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

192

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WilsonSS	.275	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
S. LangeliersC	.316	5	0	3	0	0	0	0
N. Kurtz1B	.232	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. RookerDH	.120	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. ThomasRF	.286	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. SoderstromLF	.211	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Z. Gelof3B	.250	4	1	2	0	0	1	1
D. HernaizSS	.194	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. McNeil2B	.276	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. ButlerRF	.184	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CortesRF	.387	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
Team		37	1	8	1	0	6	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CivaleSP	5.0	5	0	0	1	3	87
H. HarrisRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	1	22
S. BarlowRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	11
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
J. PerkinsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. SternerRP	1.0	2	3	2	0	0	12
Team	10.0	8	4	3	3	7	153

Team

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

ATH vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.