MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 1ST+2BOS

BOS

14-21

DET

18-18

Live · model leanBot 1stPolls every 30s

60.0%

BOS wins · current

Pre-game: 53.6% DET

BOS 3 · 1 DET

BOS +2

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.68

J. Moran

0-0 · 2.33 ERA

F. Valdez

2-1 · 3.35 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

DET spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

DET no-vig %

60.8%

open 63.1% · -2.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
53.6%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.4%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · model intelligence

52% confidence

Win prob · home

20.8%

-32.8ppvs pre-game · BOS favored

Leverage

medium

One swing game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.12

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+159

Close price

+139

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Market steamed in our direction

Player projections

DET vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
7.7± 4.7low
Ranger SuarezBOS
4.6± 3.6low
Framber ValdezDET
4.6± 3.4low

Hits

Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.2± 0.9high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.2± 0.9high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
2.1± 2.0high
Spencer TorkelsonDET
2.1± 2.9high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.6high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 1.1high
Matt VierlingDET
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Brayan BelloBOS
4.3± 2.8low
Jack FlahertyDET
2.7± 3.1low
Keider MonteroDET
2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

BOS

Red Sox

14-21

vs54%DET

DET★

Tigers

18-18

BOS 46%win prob54% DET

DET 1503 · BOS 1501Box score→

MLBTue, May 5Bot 1stSeriesBOS leads series 1-0VegasDET -161

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

BOS · DET

BOS

14-21

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
J. Duran★LF	0-1	0	0	0	0.000
W. Contreras★1B	0-1	0	0	0	0.000
W. Abreu★RF	1-1	1	0	0	2.000
T. Story★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0.000
C. Rafaela★CF	1-1	1	3	1	5.000
A. Monasterio★SS	0-1	0	0	0	0.000
C. Durbin★3B	0-0	0	0	0	—
C. Wong★C	0-0	0	0	0	—
I. Kiner-Falefa★2B	0-0	0	0	0	—
Team	2-6	3	3	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
J. Moran★RP	0.1	2	1	1
Team	0.1	2	1	1

DET

18-18

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
M. Vierling★CF	1-1	1	1	1	5.000
K. McGonigle★SS	0-1	0	0	0	0.000
J. Jones★RF	1-1	0	0	0	2.000
D. Dingler★C	0-0	0	0	0	—
R. Greene★LF	0-0	0	0	0	—
W. Perez★RF	0-0	0	0	0	—
S. Torkelson★1B	0-0	0	0	0	—
Z. McKinstry★2B	0-0	0	0	0	—
H. Lee★3B	0-0	0	0	0	—
Team	2-3	1	1	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
F. Valdez★SP	1.0	2	0	0
Team	1.0	2	0	0

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

BOS leads series 1-0

May 4

BOS5@

DET4

May 5

BOS@

DETtoday

May 6

BOS@

DETupcoming

Season series

BOS leads series 3-2

Apr 17

DET0@

BOS1

Apr 18

DET4@

BOS1

Apr 19

DET6@

BOS2

Apr 20

DET6@

BOS8

May 4

BOS5@

DET4

May 5

BOS@

DETtoday

May 6

BOS@

DETupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

BOS+13343%

DET-16162%

11· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

BOSRP

J. Moran

#47 · 0-0

ERA

2.33

—

Last 3 starts

5/3vs

HOU0.2 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-

4/29@

TOR2.2 IP · 1 ER · 0 K-

4/24@

BAL2.2 IP · 1 ER · 1 K-

DETSP

F. Valdez

#59 · 2-1

ERA

3.35

—

Last 3 starts

4/30@

ATL6.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K-

4/24@

CIN4.1 IP · 2 ER · 4 K-

4/19@

BOS6.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 KW(2-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

BOS2L · 7R

1
J. Duran
LF · #16
L
2
W. Contreras
1B · #40
R
3
W. Abreu
RF · #52
L
4
T. Story
SS · #10
R
5
C. Rafaela
CF · #3
R
6
A. Monasterio
DH · #32
R
7
C. Durbin
3B · #5
R
8
C. Wong
C · #12
R
9
I. Kiner-Falefa
2B · #2
R

DET3L · 5R · 1S

1
M. Vierling
CF · #8
R
2
K. McGonigle
SS · #7
L
3
J. Jones
DH · #18
R
4
D. Dingler
C · #13
R
5
R. Greene
LF · #31
L
6
W. Perez
RF · #46
B
7
S. Torkelson
1B · #20
R
8
Z. McKinstry
3B · #39
L
9
H. Lee
2B · #50
R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 1st

Game flowBOS ↔ DET

Recent swing: 28pp · Top 1st Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 4 : Ball 2

BOS

C. Rafaela

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Moran

Starting pitcher

0.1 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 2 H

DET

M. Vierling

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

F. Valdez

Starting pitcher

1.0 IP · 0 ER · 2 H

How it's going

BOS lead DET 3-1 (Bot 1st). Rafaela's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Win probability

DET vs BOS

Score progression

0 lead changes

BOS3

DET1

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOSTop 1st Inning · 3-0

+28pp→ 67% WP

Rafaela · homered to right center (362 feet), Abreu scored and Story scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	R
BOS	3	3
DET	1	1

Game flow · key plays

B1
Jones singled to left.
BOS 3·DET 1
+3pp
B1
McGonigle struck out swinging.
BOS 3·DET 1
−3pp
B1
Vierling homered to left (365 feet).
BOS 3·DET 1
+10pp
T1
Rafaela homered to right center (362 feet), Abreu scored and Story scored.
BOS 3·DET 0
−28pp
T1
Story safe at first on fielding error by third baseman McKinstry, Abreu safe at third on error.
BOS 0·DET 0
−2pp
T1
Contreras grounded out to shortstop.
BOS 0·DET 0
+1pp

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 8.5·BOS +133/DET -161

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model intelligence

52% confidence

Win prob · home

20.8%

-32.8ppvs pre-game · BOS favored

Leverage

medium

One swing game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+3.12

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+159

Close price

+139

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Market steamed in our direction

Player projections

DET vs BOS.

122

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Payton TolleBOS
7.7± 4.7low
Ranger SuarezBOS
4.6± 3.6low
Framber ValdezDET
4.6± 3.4low

Hits

Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.2± 0.9high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.2± 0.9high
Willson ContrerasBOS
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
2.1± 2.0high
Spencer TorkelsonDET
2.1± 2.9high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.8± 1.6high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.8± 1.1high
Matt VierlingDET
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Brayan BelloBOS
4.3± 2.8low
Jack FlahertyDET
2.7± 3.1low
Keider MonteroDET
2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

53.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
53.6%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.4%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen