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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2ARI
ARI

ARI

22-23

8
6
COL

COL

18-29

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
24,955 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 11.0 · -0.5

COL no-vig %

42.7%

open 41.7% · +1.0

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 11.5O/U 10.0TOTAL46.7%37.7%COL NO-VIG %MODEL 38.6%May 16, 6 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 8 · COL 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0023210008
COL0002000406

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.0pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best
-144DraftKings

edge +5.0pp · implied 56.4%

COL

no live price

BookARICOLBest edge
DraftKings-144★+119+5.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 18, 26sim 97
    136
    27(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 94
    135
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 94
    1310
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 92
    187
    27(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 89
    299
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 87
    292
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasARI -144

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 8–6.

ARI -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 10.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

2.600OPS

4-2

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Troy Johnston

Troy Johnston

RF

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI22-23
8
6
COL18-29
ARI22-23·COL18-29
ARI

ARI

22-23

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-55111000
SPRINT26.941
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-44323212
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
2-44120010
SPRINT26.838
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-44011011
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
2-55122102
SPRINT25.818
AA. Del Castillo★DH
0-55000003
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
3-44230010
SPRINT26.428
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
1-33011002
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
0-44000001
Team12-383881283411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. SorokaM. Soroka★SP
5.2622280
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.1000000
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.0000000
B. PfaadtB. PfaadtRP
0.1242100
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
0.2000000
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.0000100
Team9.0864480
COL

COL

18-29

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-55000002
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
0-44000010
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
1-44110012
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-33210010
SPRINT24.85
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-44221011
SPRINT26.326
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-33012001
SPRINT27.969
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
2-44121001
SPRINT29.698
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-44010000
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
0-33001001
Team8-3434685048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
4.2976352
B. CastanoB. CastanoRP
2.1211131
S. HalvorsenS. HalvorsenRP
1.0100020
V. VodnikV. VodnikRP
1.0000010
Team9.012874113

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • M. Soroka
    98 pitches·31% CSW
    • SV
      39%·80.6 mph·42% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.9 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.6 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Pfaadt
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      31%·81.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • P. Sewald
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      69%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • CH
      43%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·89.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Morillo
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • CH
      50%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      50%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·88.2 mph·0% whiff

COL

  • M. Lorenzen
    101 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      27%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·86.0 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      18%·93.2 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.7 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      2%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Castano
    45 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      40%·94.0 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      20%·90.0 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      18%·83.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Halvorsen
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      57%·100.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·86.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      7%·90.6 mph·100% whiff
  • V. Vodnik
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      55%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·88.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      18%·92.6 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

8

Runs

6

2

Errors

2

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

May 16ARIARI9@COLCOL1
May 16ARIARI2@COLCOL4
May 17ARIARI8@COLCOL6today

Season series

ARI leads series 2-1

May 16ARIARI9@COLCOL1
May 16ARIARI2@COLCOL4
May 17ARIARI8@COLCOL6today
May 22COLCOL1@ARIARI2
May 23COLCOL3@ARIARI2
May 24COLCOL4@ARIARI5
May 24COLCOL1@ARIARI9
Aug 11COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 23ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

Total

10.5

High-scoring · +2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI-14459%
COLCOL+11946%

↘5· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

10.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 3rd Inning

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.600 OPS

M. Soroka

M. Soroka

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

COLCOL
T. Johnston

T. Johnston

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 2 R · 1.100 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 9 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ARI beat COL 8-6.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

COL vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 66% WP

Arenado · singled to left, Carroll scored, Perdomo to second.

ARITop 4th Inning · 5-0
+10pp→ 93% WP

Carroll · homered to right center (431 feet), Vargas scored.

COLBottom 8th Inning · 8-5
+9pp→ 16% WP

Karros · grounded into fielder's choice to third, Johnston scored, McCarthy safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Arenado, McCarthy safe at third on error.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0023210008
COL0002000406

Period scoring

ARI won 4 · COL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Arenado 1

3
2

Inn 4

Carroll 2

Johnston 1

2
0

Inn 5

Jr. 1

1
0

Inn 6

Carroll 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
4

Inn 8

Castro 1

0
0

Inn 9

ARI
COL

Play-by-play · 621 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 8·COL 6

  2. B9

    · ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  3. B9

    Johnston flied out to left.

    · ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  7. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Troy Johnston

    · ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  8. B9

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  9. B9

    Rumfield walked.

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

    +3pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  11. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  18. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to TJ Rumfield

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  19. B9

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  20. B9

    Goodman flied out to center.

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

    −4pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  22. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Hunter Goodman

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  23. B9

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  24. B9

    Moniak lined out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

    −5pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  29. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Mickey Moniak

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

  30. B9

    Sewald relieved Clarke

    ·

    ARI 8·COL 6

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

COL

Home

8

Runs

6

12

Hits

8

2

Errors

2

22

TB

11

3

HR

0

4

BB

4

11

K

8

12

LOB

12

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 10.5·ARI -144/COL +119

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.88

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-156

Close price

-144

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

56.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Player projections

COL vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.5± 3.0low
  • Eduardo RodriguezARI
    4.4± 1.9low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.8± 2.0low

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    35.9%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    31.4%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    34.1%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.84 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jorge BarrosaARI · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872