MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TOP 7TH+1SEA

ARI

31-24

SEA

28-29

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 955 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Top 70-01 out

Pitcher· SEA

J. Ferrer

0.1 IP, 0 ER

Batter· ARI

G. Perdomo

2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI

Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s

55.2%

SEA wins · current

Pre-game: 51.9% ARI

ARI 5 · 6 SEA

SEA +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsSEA leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingSEABottom 6th Inning · 5-6
+18pp→ 76% WP
Raley · homered to right (403 feet).
ClutchARITop 6th Inning · 5-5
+17pp→ 44% WP
Fernandez · singled to right, Del Castillo scored, Vargas to third.
SwingSEABottom 5th Inning · 1-5
+9pp→ 94% WP
Crawford · homered to center (417 feet), Pereda scored.
SwingSEABottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+15pp→ 87% WP
Rodr · íguez homered to left (384 feet), Crawford scored.
SwingSEABottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 74% WP
Crawford · homered to right (379 feet).

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.34

Z. Gallen

3-4 · 4.80 ERA

G. Kirby

5-4 · 3.54 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SEA no-vig %

58.4%

open 57.2% · +1.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.6%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.2%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

87.2%

+36.1ppvs pre-game · SEA favored

Leverage

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.26

CLV pp

Open price

+123

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

41.6%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.3pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best

+119DraftKings

edge +8.3pp · implied 43.6%

SEA

no live price

Book	ARI	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	+119★	-144	+8.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

SEA vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
5.7± 2.4low
Emerson HancockSEA
5.5± 4.3low
Michael SorokaARI
5.2± 3.5low

Hits

Ketel MarteARI
1.8± 1.0high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.3± 1.2high
Tommy TroyARI
1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
3.1± 1.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.6± 2.9high
Julio RodriguezSEA
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Ketel MarteARI
1.3± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
0.7± 1.1high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.5± 3.5low
Luis CastilloSEA
3.2± 3.1low
Ryne NelsonARI
2.7± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Fri, May 29

ARI★

Diamondbacks

32-26

vs51.9%ARI

SEA

Mariners

30-36

ARI 51.9%win prob48.1% SEA

ARI 1516 · SEA 1500Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
K. Marte★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Carroll★RF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT29.496
G. Perdomo★SS	2-3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
SPRINT26.838
G. Moreno★C	1-3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT26.428
A. Del Castillo★DH	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
SPRINT26.326
R. Waldschmidt★CF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. Vargas★1B	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. Fernandez★DH	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
SPRINT29.597
T. Troy★OF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
Team	8-26	26	5	8	5	1	3	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

2-4

2-3

1-3

0-2

1-3

0-3

2-3

0-2

Team

8-26

	Pitching
Z. Gallen★SP	5.0	8	5	5	1	2	3
B. PfaadtRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1
Team	6.0	10	6	6	1	3	4

Pitching

Player

Z. Gallen★SP

5.0

B. PfaadtRP

1.0

Team

6.0

	Batting
J.P. Crawford★SS	2-2	2	3	2	3	2	1	0
SPRINT25.513
J. Rodriguez★CF	2-3	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
SPRINT28.688
J. Naylor★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT23.81
R. Arozarena★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Raley★RF	2-3	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
SPRINT28.175
C. Young★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. Canzone★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Pereda★C	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Emerson★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	10-25	25	6	10	6	4	1	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

J.P. Crawford★SS

2-2