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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TEX
TEX

TEX

24-25

5
4
COL

COL

19-31

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
18,726 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.5

open O/U 11.0 · -0.5

COL no-vig %

44.9%

open 45.8% · -0.9

+2.0-0.5COL SPREADO/U 11.5O/U 10.0TOTAL49.8%40.9%COL NO-VIG %May 19, 5 PMMay 20, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 5 · COL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0003000025
COL1001200004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+27.0pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best
+174DraftKings

edge +27.0pp · implied 34.3%

COL

no live price

BookTEXCOLBest edge
DraftKings+174★-233+27.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Wed, May 20·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasTEX -123

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (TEX won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 10.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Josh Jung

Josh Jung

3B

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Tyler Freeman

Tyler Freeman

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX24-25
5
4
COL19-31
TEX24-25·COL19-31
TEX

TEX

24-25

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-22000010
J. FoscueJ. Foscue★2B
3-55130002
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-33010000
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
3-44131010
SPRINT25.920
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-55112103
SPRINT28.891
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
2-55121100
SPRINT2744
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-44000000
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
1-44010000
S. HaggertyS. Haggerty★LF
1-22010001
J. PedersonJ. PedersonDH
0-11100000
SPRINT25.716
A. OsunaA. OsunaLF
1-22010000
E. CarterE. CarterCF
0-11000000
D. JansenD. JansenC
0-11000001
Team13-39395134227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
5.0744250
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0000000
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
1.0000020
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
2.0100040
Team9.08442110
COL

COL

19-31

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
2-55220000
SPRINT29.698
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
0-33000001
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
2-44121001
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
2-44021000
SPRINT24.85
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-44111001
SPRINT26.326
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-44010003
SPRINT27.867
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-22000011
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-33001011
B. SullivanB. Sullivan★C
0-33000000
H. GoodmanH. GoodmanC
0-11000001
W. CastroW. Castro2B
0-11000001
B. FulfordB. FulfordC
0-11000001
Team8-35354840211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. FreelandK. Freeland★SP
4.2733242
J. HillJ. HillRP
1.1100000
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
2.0200010
B. BernardinoB. BernardinoRP
0.1220010
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
0.2100010
Team9.01353272

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • J. Leiter
    83 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      24%·88.4 mph·15% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      16%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·80.3 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Latz
    35 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      74%·94.4 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      3%·81.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Alexander
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      36%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      14%·91.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      14%·78.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Junis
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      36%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·90.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.5 mph·0% whiff

COL

  • K. Freeland
    89 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      28%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·86.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      18%·81.8 mph·45% whiff
    • KC
      16%·80.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      12%·84.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      1%·91.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Senzatela
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      38%·91.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      29%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·97.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      10%·83.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hill
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.9 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      24%·85.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      18%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Bernardino
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      64%·91.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      21%·77.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·79.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Mejia
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      67%·83.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.2 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

8

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

May 19TEXTEX6@COLCOL7
May 20TEXTEX10@COLCOL0
May 20TEXTEX5@COLCOL4today

Season series

TEX wins series 2-1

May 19TEXTEX6@COLCOL7
May 20TEXTEX10@COLCOL0
May 20TEXTEX5@COLCOL4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX-12355%
COLCOL+10250%

↗4· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

10.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 42pp · Top 9th Inning

TEXTEX
J. Jung

J. Jung

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.550 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

COLCOL
T. Freeman

T. Freeman

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

K. Freeland

K. Freeland

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TEX beat COL 5-4. Jung's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (42pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

COL vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+22pp→ 63% WP

Duran · homered to left (373 feet), Jung scored.

COLBottom 4th Inning · 3-2
+19pp→ 41% WP

Sullivan · grounded out to first.

TEXTop 9th Inning · 5-4
+42pp→ 90% WP

Jung · singled to left, Foscue scored, Osuna to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0003000025
COL1001200004

Period scoring

TEX won 2 · COL won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Rumfield 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

3
1

Inn 4

Duran 2

Karros 1

0
2

Inn 5

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Jung 2

TEX
COL

Play-by-play · 598 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 5·COL 4

  2. B9

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  3. B9

    McCarthy grounded out to second.

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  6. B9

    Jacob Latz pitches to Jake McCarthy

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  7. B9

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  8. B9

    Fulford struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

    −6pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  14. B9

    Jacob Latz pitches to Braxton Fulford

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  15. B9

    Fulford hit for Sullivan

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  16. B9

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  17. B9

    Karros flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

    −5pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  26. B9

    Jacob Latz pitches to Kyle Karros

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  27. B9

    Latz relieved Jansen

    ·

    TEX 5·COL 4

  28. B9

    Helman in center field.

    TEX 5·COL 4

  29. B9

    Osuna in left field.

    TEX 5·COL 4

  30. B9

    Pederson in right field.

    TEX 5·COL 4

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

COL

Home

5

Runs

4

13

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

20

TB

10

2

HR

0

2

BB

2

7

K

11

16

LOB

14

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 10·TEX -123/COL +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.87

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 96
    1310
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 94
    298
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 93
    136
    27(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 93
    299
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 92
    292
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 91
    181
    27(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

COL vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.7± 1.9high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.7± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    36.3%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    32.3%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    35.8%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.77 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.