MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6NYY

NYY

35-22

ATH

27-30

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

12,254 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

ATH no-vig %

41.9%

open 42.8% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
37.2%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
36.0%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.5%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.09

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.7pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

-143DraftKings

edge +4.7pp · implied 56.3%

ATH

no live price

Book	NYY	ATH	Best edge
DraftKings	-143★	+119	+4.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATH vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.3± 3.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.2± 2.1medium
Carlos RodonNYY
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Shea LangeliersATH
1.2± 0.8high
Zack GelofATH
1.2± 0.5high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.5± 2.5high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.9high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.3± 3.0high

RBIs

Tyler SoderstromATH
0.9± 1.3high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 1.8medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
3.0± 3.1low
Will WarrenNYY
2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

ATH

.763

OPS

◀

.717

.747

.330

OBP

.319

.330

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.51

3.32

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.85

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 8 · ATH 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	4	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	8
ATH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. GrishamCF	.211	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
B. Rice1B	.303	5	2	4	2	1	0	0
A. JudgeRF	.252	4	1	1	2	0	1	1
C. BellingerLF	.271	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.240	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.262	5	1	1	3	1	0	0
R. McMahon3B	.200	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J.C. EscarraC	.186	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CaballeroSS	.265	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
Team		40	8	12	8	3	2	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.211

.303

.252

.271

.240

.262

.200

.186

.265

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. RodonSP	6.0	4	1	1	2	3	93
B. HeadrickRP	0.1	2	0	0	1	0	16
F. CruzRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. BlackburnRP	2.0	2	1	1	1	1	33
Team	9.0	8	2	2	4	4	144

Player

6.0

0.1

0.2

2.0

Team

9.0

144

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. ThomasRF	.289	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Kurtz1B	.274	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
S. LangeliersC	.292	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RookerDH	.190	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
T. SoderstromLF	.212	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
H. BolteCF	.319	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
Z. Gelof3B	.254	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. McNeil2B	.253	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. HernaizSS	.270	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. ButlerRF	.162	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. WilliamsSS	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	2	8	2	1	4	4

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. SeverinoSP	1.0	3	4	0	0	1	23
J. SuarezRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	26
J. KuhnelRP	1.2	3	2	2	0	0	31
H. HarrisRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	15
J. SternerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
S. BarlowRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	22
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
L. MedinaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20
Team	9.0	12	8	4	2	6	165

Team

NYY

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ATH vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

ATH vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.