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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8ARI
ARI

ARI

21-22

9
1
COL

COL

17-28

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
27,557 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 12.0

open O/U 11.5 · +0.5

COL no-vig %

46.9%

open 45.8% · +1.1

+2.0-0.5COL SPREADO/U 12.5O/U 11.0TOTAL50.9%41.8%COL NO-VIG %May 14, 4 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 9 · COL 1 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI6001002009
COL1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 954 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 16, 26sim 94
    292
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 93
    135
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 92
    181
    27(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 91
    1310
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 90
    116
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 89
    298
    27(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.02

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasARI -119

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 9–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ARI -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 12.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI21-22
9
1
COL17-28
ARI21-22·COL17-28
ARI

ARI

21-22

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
0-55000001
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-55220000
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-55010001
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-11210040
SPRINT25.29
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
4-55242000
SPRINT26.941
L. Gurriel Jr.L. Gurriel Jr.★LF
1-33111010
SPRINT25.818
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
2-55123002
SPRINT26.428
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
1-55111000
R. WaldschmidtR. Waldschmidt★CF
1-44012001
Team13-38389139055
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellyM. Kelly★SP
9.0411031
Team9.0411031
COL

COL

17-28

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT26.225
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT2872
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
1-44111100
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-44000001
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-33000001
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★LF
0-33000000
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-33000000
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-22010000
SPRINT27.867
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.251
S. ThompsonS. ThompsonRF
0-11000000
Team4-3131141103
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. FreelandK. Freeland★SP
3.2877430
Z. AgnosZ. AgnosRP
4.1422010
S. HalvorsenS. HalvorsenRP
1.0100110
Team9.01399550

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

4

9

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

May 16ARIARI9@COLCOL1today
May 16ARIARI2@COLCOL4
May 17ARIARI8@COLCOL6

Season series

ARI leads series 1-0

May 16ARIARI9@COLCOL1today
May 16ARIARI2@COLCOL4
May 17ARIARI8@COLCOL6
May 22COLCOL1@ARIARI2
May 23COLCOL3@ARIARI2
May 24COLCOL4@ARIARI5
May 24COLCOL1@ARIARI9
Aug 11COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 12COLCOL@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 23ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming
Sep 24ARIARI@COLCOLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ARI -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

12.0

High-scoring · +3.5 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

ARIARI-11954%
COLCOL-10250%

↘5· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗SpreadBet ARI -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 1st Inning

ARIARI
N. Arenado

N. Arenado

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

M. Kelly

M. Kelly

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

9.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H

COLCOL
H. Goodman

H. Goodman

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

K. Freeland

K. Freeland

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 3 K · 7 ER · 8 H · 4 BB

How it ended

ARI beat COL 9-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 1st Inning · 3-0
+15pp→ 76% WP

Moreno · singled to center, Arenado scored and Vargas scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI6001002009
COL1000000001

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

COL

Home

9

Runs

1

13

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

17

TB

9

0

HR

1

5

BB

0

5

K

3

12

LOB

5

Betting line

ARI -1.5·O/U 12·ARI -119/COL -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

12.0

+0.5 since open

Win probability

COL vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

ARI won 3 · COL won 0

6
1

Inn 1

Moreno 2

Goodman 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Vargas 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Jr. 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ARI
COL

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 9·COL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  3. B9

    Rumfield struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  8. B9

    Merrill Kelly pitches to TJ Rumfield

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  9. B9

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  10. B9

    Goodman grounded out to third.

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  18. B9

    Merrill Kelly pitches to Hunter Goodman

    · ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  19. B9

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  20. B9

    Moniak doubled to right.

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  24. B9

    Merrill Kelly pitches to Mickey Moniak

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  25. B9

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  26. B9

    Julien flied out to left.

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 9·COL 1

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

COL vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    4.5± 3.0low
  • Eduardo RodriguezARI
    4.4± 1.9low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.8± 2.0low

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    39.2%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    35.8%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    37.4%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.