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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
PHI logo
PHI
2
LiveMid 8th
LAD logo
LAD
4
Updated 12:04 AM ET
MID 8TH+2LAD↑
PHI

PHI

29-27

2
4
LAD

LAD

36-20

MLB · At bat

Mid 8·0-0·0 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastMiddle of the 8th inning

Live · model leanMid 8thPolls every 30s

66.8%

LAD wins · current

Pre-game: 63.4% LAD

PHI 2 · 4 LAD

LAD +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8
away leadsLAD leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingLADBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
    +7pp→ 83% WP

    Muncy · homered to right center (396 feet).

  • ↑SwingLADBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
    +10pp→ 75% WP

    Freeman · homered to left (365 feet).

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 4.74

Z. Wheeler

4-0 · 1.67 ERA

vs

J. Wrobleski

6-2 · 3.07 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

LAD no-vig %

52.2%

open 52.2%

+2.0+1.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 7.5TOTAL56.2%48.2%LAD NO-VIG %May 28, 5 PMMay 29, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
Fri, May 29
PHI

PHI

Phillies

36-32

vs63.4%LAD

LAD★

Dodgers

40-24

LAD
PHI 36.6%win prob63.4% LAD
LAD 1589 · PHI 1526Box score→

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.3pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

PHI

no live price

LAD

★ best
-120DraftKings

edge +11.3pp · implied 52.1%

BookPHILADBest edge
DraftKings-101-120★+11.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved

MLB·Fri, May 29·Mid 8th/VegasLAD -115
Updated 0s ago

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers · live

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Mid 8th
PHI29-27
2
4
LAD36-20
PHI29-27·LAD36-20
PHI

PHI

29-27

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44111102
SPRINT25.818
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-33000001
SPRINT29.798
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-33000002
SPRINT2744
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-33000000
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-33000001
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-33000001
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-33110002
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-33000000
S. BerroaS. Berroa★RF
1-33011001
Team3-28282321010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. WheelerZ. Wheeler★SP
6.0544144
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
1.0000010
Team7.0544154
LAD

LAD

36-20

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
2-33121101
SPRINT2744
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000000
SPRINT28.175
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-33111100
SPRINT24.74
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-33000001
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-33000001
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33111100
SPRINT27.354
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-33111102
SPRINT2744
A. CallA. Call★LF
0-22000010
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-22000000
Team5-2525454415
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. WrobleskiJ. Wrobleski★SP
7.0111091
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
0.2211000
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.1000010
Team8.03220101

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

5

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Season series

May 30PHIPHI@LADLADtoday
May 31PHIPHI@LADLADupcoming
May 31PHIPHI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 20LADLAD@PHIPHIupcoming
Jul 21LADLAD@PHIPHIupcoming
Jul 22LADLAD@PHIPHIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI-10551%
LADLAD-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
PHIPHISP
Z. Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

#45 · 4-0

ERA

1.67

K

36

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/23vsCLECLE6.0 IP · 0 ER · 6 KW(4-0)
5/17@PITPIT7.0 IP · 0 ER · 8 KW(3-0)
5/12@BOSBOS7.1 IP · 1 ER · 4 KW(2-0)
VS
LADLADSP
J. Wrobleski

J. Wrobleski

#70 · 6-2

ERA

3.07

K

31

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/22@MILMIL5.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 KL(6-2)
5/17@LAALAA6.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 KW(6-1)
5/10vsATLATL8.2 IP · 7 ER · 7 KL(5-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
PHIPHI4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    K. Schwarber

    DH · #12

    L
  2. 2

    T. Turner

    SS · #7

    R
  3. 3

    B. Harper

    1B · #3

    L
  4. 4

    A. Bohm

    3B · #28

    R
  5. 5

    B. Stott

    2B · #5

    L
  6. 6

    J.T. Realmuto

    C · #10

    R
  7. 7

    B. Marsh

    LF · #16

    L
  8. 8

    A. Garcia

    RF · #53

    R
  9. 9

    S. Berroa

    CF · #39

    B
LADLAD4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    S. Ohtani

    DH · #17

    L
  2. 2

    A. Pages

    CF · #44

    R
  3. 3

    F. Freeman

    1B · #5

    L
  4. 4

    M. Betts

    SS · #50

    R
  5. 5

    K. Tucker

    RF · #23

    L
  6. 6

    M. Muncy

    3B · #13

    L
  7. 7

    W. Smith

    C · #16

    R
  8. 8

    A. Call

    LF · #12

    R
  9. 9

    A. Freeland

    2B · #76

    B

Live · top performers so far

Mid 8th
Game flowPHI ↔ LAD
Just happened

Middle of the 8th inning

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

Z. Wheeler

Z. Wheeler

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 5 K · 5 ER

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

J. Wrobleski

J. Wrobleski

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 1 H

How it's going

LAD lead PHI 4-2 (Mid 8th).

Win probability

LAD vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 75% WP

Freeman · homered to left (365 feet).

LADBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 83% WP

Muncy · homered to right center (396 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678R
PHI000001012
LAD1110100—4

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · LAD won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Freeman 1

0
1

Inn 2

Muncy 1

0
1

Inn 3

Ohtani 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Smith 1

1
0

Inn 6

Schwarber 1

0
0

Inn 7

1

Inn 8

Berroa 1

PHI
LAD

Play-by-play · 396 plays

period
event
player
  1. M8

    Middle of the 8th inning

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  2. T8

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  3. T8

    Schwarber struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

    +2pp

  4. T8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  5. T8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  6. T8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  7. T8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  8. T8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  9. T8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  10. T8

    Alex Vesia pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  11. T8

    Vesia relieved Henriquez

    ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  12. T8

    ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  13. T8

    Berroa singled to center, Marsh scored.

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

    −3pp

  14. T8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  15. T8

    Edgardo Henriquez pitches to Steward Berroa

    · ·

    PHI 2·LAD 4

  16. T8

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

  17. T8

    García grounded out to shortstop, Marsh to third.

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

    +2pp

  18. T8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

  19. T8

    Edgardo Henriquez pitches to Adolis Garcia

    · ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

  20. T8

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

  21. T8

    Marsh doubled to center.

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

    −2pp

  22. T8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

  23. T8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

  24. T8

    Edgardo Henriquez pitches to Brandon Marsh

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

  25. T8

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

  26. T8

    Realmuto popped out to first.

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

    +2pp

  27. T8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

  28. T8

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 1

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

  29. T8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

  30. T8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PHI 1·LAD 4

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

2

Runs

4

3

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

7

TB

17

1

HR

4

0

BB

1

10

K

5

4

LOB

2

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8·PHI -105/LAD -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Live · model intelligence

85% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+36.7ppvs pre-game · LAD favored

Leverage

4

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Player projections

LAD vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.1± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Mookie BettsLAD
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.8%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    62.3%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.6%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.5%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 955 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 13, 26sim 91
    253
    8(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 90
    241
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 89
    162
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 87
    251
    8(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 87
    240
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 86
    241
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. Ground OutSI 101#1
  2. SingleFF 100#1
  3. Strike LookingSL 84#1
  4. BallSL 85#2
  5. BallFF 91#3
  6. Strike SwingingSL 83#4
  7. BallSL 84#5
  8. Strike SwingingSL 83#6