MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SD

27-18

SEA

22-25

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

44,207 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SEA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SEA no-vig %

60.0%

open 59.3% · +0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.9%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
48.4%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.3%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.4%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.53

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+135

Close price

+144

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

39.2%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.2pp

best edge · SD · DraftKings

★ best

+144DraftKings

edge +17.2pp · implied 39.2%

SEA

no live price

Book	SD	SEA	Best edge
DraftKings	+144★	-175	+17.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

SEA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Bryce MillerSEA
5.8± 3.2low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.8± 2.5low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.4high
Cole YoungSEA
1.1± 0.8high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Colt EmersonSEA
1.8± 1.8high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.7± 2.0high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.6low
Freddy FerminSD
0.6± 1.1high
Josh NaylorSEA
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.3± 2.8low
Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

SEA

.652

OPS

.715

▶

.715

.292

OBP

.319

▶

.318

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.24

3.96

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.59

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 7 · SEA 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	1	0	4	0	0	2	0	0	7
SEA	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. MerrillCF	.205	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.233	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Machado3B	.182	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
G. Sheets1B	.244	2	1	1	1	1	2	1
X. BogaertsSS	.263	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.295	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.205	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.223	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. DuranC	.083	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
S. Song2B	.222	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	7	7	7	3	4	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.205

.233

.182

.244

.263

.295

.205

.223

.083

.222

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
W. BuehlerSP	5.0	5	2	2	2	6	101
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
J. AdamRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
A. JacobRP	0.0	2	2	2	1	0	11
A. MorejonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
J. EstradaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	17
Team	9.0	8	4	4	4	9	162

Player

W. BuehlerSP

5.0

101

1.0

1.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

162

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J.P. CrawfordSS	.217	5	1	2	1	1	0	2
J. RodriguezCF	.255	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.253	4	2	2	0	0	1	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.306	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
L. RaleyRF	.265	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.255	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
D. CanzoneDH	.253	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. PeredaC	.167	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Rivas3B	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. RefsnyderDH	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JoeRF	.214	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		35	4	8	4	1	4	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. GilbertSP	6.2	5	7	7	2	5	97
N. DavilaRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	19
D. GonzalezSP	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	14
Team	9.0	7	7	7	4	6	130

Team

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

SEA vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.