HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBEnd 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -6.5pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -48.3pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:51 - 4th
    TOR 76@WSH 81
    +27.6pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1CIN
CIN

CIN

24-21

7
6
CLE

CLE

24-22

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
27,903 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CLE spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

CLE no-vig %

55.3%

open 55.1% · +0.2

+0.5-2.0CLE SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL59.3%51.1%CLE NO-VIG %MODEL 55.6%May 14, 4 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

CIN

league avg

CLE

CLE

.710

OPS

◀

.715

.688

.314

OBP

.319

.317

4.24

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.01

4.77

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.80

1.47

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 7 · CLE 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0200100317
CLE0000010416

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

CIN

no live price

CLE

no live price

BookCINCLEBest edge
DraftKings+118-142+0.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1/VegasCLE -142

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

CIN +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. BledayCIN+35.6pp
  2. 2S. SteerCIN+30.3pp
  3. 3C. DeLauterCLE−29.4pp

CIN · top performer

CIN
Matt McLain

Matt McLain

2B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Rhys Hoskins

Rhys Hoskins

1B

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
W. BensonRF
.1863000011
E. De La CruzSS
.2984011000
S. Stewart1B
.2384000010
J. BledayLF
.3455231000
S. SteerLF
.2635221000
N. LoweDH
.2444010001
M. McLain2B
.2233123110
T. StephensonC
.1823001001
K. Hayes3B
.1534110001
- D. MyersCF
.2371110000
Team367117134

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
A. AbbottSP
5.04113290
P. JohnsonRP
1.01000225
T. SantillanRP
1.01000119
G. AshcraftRP
0.01443015
B. BurkeRP
1.00002118
T. AntoneRP
1.01110019
Team9.086686186

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanCF
.2014001010
J. Ramirez3B
.2204031000
C. DeLauterRF
.2864000010
R. Hoskins1B
.1863211121
D. FryRF
.2462000001
A. MartinezLF
.2594111011
T. Bazzana2B
.2405121000
P. BaileyC
.0002000011
B. RocchioSS
.2693001011
- K. Manzardo1B
.2082210010
- A. HedgesC
.2731000001
Team34686186

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. BibeeSP
6.27332296
M. FestaRP
0.1000007
P. PalletteRP
1.03330229
T. HerrinRP
1.0111108
Team9.0117734140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • A. Abbott
    90 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      48%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·82.8 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      19%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      72%·87.3 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      28%·95.8 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      79%·95.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SV
      16%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Antone
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      47%·84.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      26%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·81.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      11%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Burke
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FC
      67%·97.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      33%·90.2 mph·50% whiff

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    96 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·80.6 mph·23% whiff
    • FC
      21%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      15%·93.6 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      5%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·77.9 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Pallette
    29 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      24%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • CU
      38%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      38%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Festa
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      43%·83.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      14%·93.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

8

7

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

May 15CINCIN7@CLECLE6today
May 16CINCIN4@CLECLE7
May 17CINCIN3@CLECLE10

Season series

CIN leads series 1-0

May 15CINCIN7@CLECLE6today
May 16CINCIN4@CLECLE7
May 17CINCIN3@CLECLE10
Jul 27CLECLE@CINCINupcoming
Jul 28CLECLE@CINCINupcoming
Jul 29CLECLE@CINCINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

CINCIN+11846%
CLECLE-14259%

↘1· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 8th Inning

CINCIN
M. McLain

M. McLain

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

A. Abbott

A. Abbott

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

CLECLE
R. Hoskins

R. Hoskins

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CIN beat CLE 7-6.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 5th Inning · 3-0
+11pp→ 82% WP

De La Cruz · doubled to right, Hayes scored.

CLEBottom 6th Inning · 3-1
+11pp→ 28% WP

Hoskins · homered to left (382 feet).

CLEBottom 8th Inning · 6-4
+14pp→ 40% WP

Kwan · walked, Martínez scored, Rocchio to second, Bazzana to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0200100317
CLE0000010416

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · CLE won 2

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

McLain 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Cruz 1

0
1

Inn 6

Hoskins 1

0
0

Inn 7

3
4

Inn 8

McLain 2

Bazzana 1

1
1

Inn 9

Bleday 1

Mart 1

CIN
CLE

Play-by-play · 633 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 7·CLE 6

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 6

  3. B9

    Bazzana grounded out to second.

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 6

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 6

  7. B9

    Tejay Antone pitches to Travis Bazzana

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 6

  8. B9

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 6

  9. B9

    Martínez grounded out to first, Manzardo scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 7·CLE 6

    −7pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 7·CLE 6

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  14. B9

    Tejay Antone pitches to Angel Martinez

    · ·

    CIN 7·CLE 6

  15. B9

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  16. B9

    Manzardo tripled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

    +7pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  24. B9

    Tejay Antone pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  25. B9

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  26. B9

    Hoskins popped out to second.

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

    −5pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 7·CLE 5

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

7

Runs

6

11

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

18

TB

14

1

HR

1

3

BB

8

4

K

6

16

LOB

15

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 7.5·CIN +118/CLE -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

+0.5 since open

Player projections

CLE vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.9± 3.1low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    5.8± 2.3low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    1.1± 1.1high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Jose RamirezCLE
    2.0± 2.3high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • JJ BledayCIN
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Eugenio SuarezCIN
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 1.8low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.2± 2.6low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    2.8± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    55.8%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.8%

    P(CLE win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.5%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872