
CIN
24-21

CLE
24-22
Line movement
200 snapshots
CLE spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 7.5 · +0.5
CLE no-vig %
55.3%
open 55.1% · +0.2
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CLE favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
CIN
league avg
CLE
.710
OPS
.715
.688
.314
OBP
.319
.317
4.24
Runs / G
4.50
4.01
4.77
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.80
1.47
WHIP
1.31
▶1.26
7.9
K / 9
8.5
▶9.3
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
CIN wins
CIN 7 · CLE 6 (by 1)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked CLE +6pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
CIN
no live price
CLE
no live price
| Book | CIN | CLE | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +118 | -142 | +0.5 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Recap · MLB
incinnati Reds went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.
CIN +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CIN · top performer

Matt McLain
2B
3-2
AB-H
1
R
3
RBI
CLE · top performer

Rhys Hoskins
1B
3-1
AB-H
2
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .186 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .298 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .238 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .345 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .263 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .244 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .223 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| .182 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .153 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .237 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 36 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 90 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | |
| 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 186 |
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .201 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .220 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .286 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .186 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| .246 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .259 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .240 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .269 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .208 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .273 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 34 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 6 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 96 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 29 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 140 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantCIN
CLE
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
11
Hits
8
7
Runs
6
0
Errors
0
Current series
CLE wins series 2-1
Season series
CIN leads series 1-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CLE -1.5
1.5pt· 6.1h
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
0.5pt· 6.1h
Moneyline
1· 6.1h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 8th Inning
M. McLain
2BBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS
A. Abbott
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB
R. Hoskins
1BBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS
T. Bibee
SPStarting pitcher
6.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB
How it ended
CIN beat CLE 7-6.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
CLE vs CIN
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDe La Cruz · doubled to right, Hayes scored.
Hoskins · homered to left (382 feet).
Kwan · walked, Martínez scored, Rocchio to second, Bazzana to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
Period scoring
CIN won 2 · CLE won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
McLain 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Cruz 1
Inn 6
Hoskins 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
McLain 2
Bazzana 1
Inn 9
Bleday 1
Mart 1
Play-by-play · 633 plays
End of the 9th inning
CIN 7·CLE 6
·
CIN 7·CLE 6
Bazzana grounded out to second.
·
CIN 7·CLE 6
−5pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
CIN 7·CLE 6
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
CIN 7·CLE 6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
CIN 7·CLE 6
Tejay Antone pitches to Travis Bazzana
·
CIN 7·CLE 6
·
CIN 7·CLE 6
Martínez grounded out to first, Manzardo scored.BIG MOMENT
· ·
CIN 7·CLE 6
−7pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
CIN 7·CLE 6
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Tejay Antone pitches to Angel Martinez
· ·
CIN 7·CLE 6
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Manzardo tripled to right.BIG MOMENT
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
+7pp
Pitch 7 : Ball In Play
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Pitch 6 : Ball 3
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Tejay Antone pitches to Kyle Manzardo
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Hoskins popped out to second.
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
−5pp
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
CIN 7·CLE 5
Team stats
CIN
Away
Stat
CLE
Home
7
Runs
6
11
Hits
8
0
Errors
0
18
TB
14
1
HR
1
3
BB
8
4
K
6
16
LOB
15
Betting line
CLE -1.5·O/U 7.5·CIN +118/CLE -142
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
7.5
+0.5 since open
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 84 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
55.5%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
55.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.8%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.5%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.14 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 16 players in cohort