MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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TOP 4TH+4PHI

COL

16-23

PHI

17-22

Live · model leanTop 4thPolls every 30s

76.1%

PHI wins · current

Pre-game: 65.5% PHI

COL 1 · 5 PHI

PHI +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4

away leadsPHI leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingPHIBottom 3rd Inning · 1-4
+17pp→ 88% WP
Schwarber · homered to right (417 feet), Stott scored and Turner scored.
Lead flipPHIBottom 3rd Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 62% WP
Bohm · homered to left (373 feet).
Lead flipCOLTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 52% WP
Castro · homered to right (376 feet).

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 10.10

K. Freeland

1-3 · 5.04 ERA

A. Nola

2-3 · 5.06 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PHI no-vig %

63.6%

open 63.1% · +0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
65.5%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.5%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.3%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+33.5ppvs pre-game · PHI favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.56

CLV pp

Open price

-194

Close price

-199

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

63.6%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

PHI vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.5± 2.7low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.1± 3.7low
Zack WheelerPHI
6.0± 2.7low

Hits

Brandon MarshPHI
1.4± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.2± 1.1high
Justin CrawfordPHI
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.4± 2.7high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.4± 3.0high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.2± 3.3high

RBIs

Jake McCarthyCOL
0.9± 1.5high
Bryson StottPHI
0.8± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.6± 3.3low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
3.6± 4.0low
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.3± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One model★ Lock

● Live

COL

Rockies

16-23

vs65.5%PHI

PHI★

Phillies

17-22

COL 34.5%win prob65.5% PHI

PHI 1502 · COL 1414Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9Top 4thSeriesCOL leads series 1-0VegasPHI -192

Updated 0s ago

COL · top performer

Willi Castro

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

PHI · top performer

Alec Bohm

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Top 4th

COL16-23

PHI17-22

COL16-23PHI17-22

COL

16-23

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
E. Julien★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Moniak★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Goodman★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Rumfield★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Johnston★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. Castro★2B	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. McCarthy★LF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Karros★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Sullivan★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	4-15	15	1	4	1	1	0	3

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
K. Freeland★SP	3.0	7	5	5	0	4	2
Team	3.0	7	5	5	0	4	2

PHI

17-22

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. Turner★SS	2-2	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
K. Schwarber★LF	1-2	2	1	1	3	1	0	1
B. Harper★1B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Garcia★RF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. Sosa★2B	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. Marsh★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J.T. Realmuto★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Bohm★3B	1-1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
B. Stott★2B	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
F. ReyesLF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	7-16	16	5	7	5	2	0	4

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
A. Nola★SP	3.2	4	1	1	0	3	1
Team	3.2	4	1	1	0	3	1

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

K. Freeland
56 pitches27% CSW
- FF
  30%91.5 mph0% whiff
- KC
  21%81.8 mph17% whiff
- CH
  20%87.7 mph17% whiff
- ST
  20%82.8 mph33% whiff
- SI
  7%92.0 mph25% whiff
- FC
  2%87.2 mph— whiff

PHI

A. Nola
69 pitches25% CSW
- KC
  41%77.6 mph44% whiff
- FF
  20%92.5 mph0% whiff
- CH
  17%85.9 mph0% whiff
- SI
  17%91.4 mph0% whiff
- FC
  4%86.1 mph0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

COL leads series 1-0

May 8

COL9@

PHI7

May 9

COL@

PHItoday

May 10

COL@

PHIupcoming

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 3

PHI10@

COL1

Apr 5

PHI2@

COL1

Apr 5

PHI1@

COL4

May 8

COL9@

PHI7

May 9

COL@

PHItoday

May 10

COL@

PHIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL+15739%

PHI-19266%

5· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

COLSP

K. Freeland

#21 · 1-3

ERA

5.04

—

Last 3 starts

5/3vs

ATL4.1 IP · 6 ER · 7 KL(1-3)

4/28@

CIN5.0 IP · 4 ER · 4 KL(1-2)

4/8vs

HOU6.1 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(1-1)

PHISP

A. Nola

#27 · 2-3

ERA

5.06

—

Last 3 starts

5/4@

MIA6.0 IP · 0 ER · 5 KW(2-3)

4/26@

ATL4.2 IP · 6 ER · 6 KL(1-3)

4/20@

CHC4.1 IP · 5 ER · 5 KL(1-2)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

COL6L · 2R · 1S

1
E. Julien
2B · #6
L
2
M. Moniak
CF · #22
L
3
H. Goodman
DH · #15
R
4
T. Rumfield
1B · #7
L
5
T. Johnston
RF · #20
L
6
W. Castro
SS · #3
B
7
J. McCarthy
LF · #31
L
8
K. Karros
3B · #12
R
9
B. Sullivan
C · #26
L

PHI4L · 5R

1
T. Turner
SS · #7
R
2
K. Schwarber
DH · #12
L
3
B. Harper
1B · #3
L
4
A. Garcia
RF · #53
R
5
E. Sosa
LF · #33
R
6
B. Marsh
CF · #16
L
7
J.T. Realmuto
C · #10
R
8
A. Bohm
3B · #28
R
9
B. Stott
2B · #5
L

Live · top performers so far

Top 4th

Game flowCOL ↔ PHI

Recent swing: 17pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 4 : Strike 2 Looking

COL

W. Castro

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

K. Freeland

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 4 K · 5 ER · 7 H

On pace: 7 IP · 9 K · 12 ER

PHI

A. Bohm

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

A. Nola

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 2 ER

How it's going

PHI lead COL 5-1 (Top 4th).

Win probability

PHI vs COL

Score progression

0 lead changes

COL1

PHI5

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

COLTop 2nd Inning · 1-0

+11pp→ 52% WP

Castro · homered to right (376 feet).

PHIBottom 3rd Inning · 1-1

+13pp→ 62% WP

Bohm · homered to left (373 feet).

PHIBottom 3rd Inning · 1-4

+17pp→ 88% WP

Schwarber · homered to right (417 feet), Stott scored and Turner scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	R
COL	0	1	0	0	1
PHI	0	0	5	—	5

Period scoring

COL won 1 · PHI won 1

Inn 1

Inn 2

Castro 1

Inn 3

Schwarber 3

Inn 4

COL

PHI

Play-by-play · 235 plays

period

event

player

T4
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Aaron Nola pitches to Jake McCarthy
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Castro struck out swinging.
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5
+2pp
T4
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Aaron Nola pitches to Willi Castro
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Johnston singled to right.
·
COL 1·PHI 5
−2pp
T4
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Aaron Nola pitches to Troy Johnston
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Rumfield grounded out to second.
·
COL 1·PHI 5
+2pp
T4
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Aaron Nola pitches to TJ Rumfield
·
COL 1·PHI 5
T4
Top of the 4th inning
COL 1·PHI 5
End 3r
End of the 3rd inning
COL 1·PHI 5
B3
· ·
COL 1·PHI 5

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8.5·COL +157/PHI -192

DraftKings · via ESPN