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CAR
1Live7:02 - 2nd
PHI
1Updated 7:36 PM ET
7:02 - 2NDTied
CAR
53-22-7
11
PHI
43-27-12
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
