Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CAR

CAR

53-22-7

PHI

43-27-12

NHLSat, May 9FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-1VegasCAR -198

CAR · top performer

Jackson Blake

RW · #53

3Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Porter Martone

RW · #94

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	21:18
J. BlakeRW · #53	2	1	2	3	1	1	0	17:29
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	11:34
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	18:31
T. HallLW · #71	0	3	2	3	1	1	0	16:36
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	14:04
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	20:07
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-1	3	1	0	2	14:26
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:29
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	-1	2	3	0	2	17:05
L. StankovenC · #22	1	0	2	2	3	0	0	16:12
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	17:17

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	22:42
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	18:57
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	2	2	3	1	0	24:30
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:08
J. SlavinD · #74	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	21:09
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	23:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	17	2	15	.882	65:19

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	13:51
A. BumpLW · #20	1	0	-2	1	0	1	0	14:06
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	20:32
C. DvorakC · #22	0	1	-2	0	3	1	0	16:49
T. FoersterRW · #71	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	19:20
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	14:59
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	14:02
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	15:21
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	1	-1	1	7	2	0	16:33
J. LuchankoC · #17	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	12:31
P. MartoneRW · #94	0	1	0	5	2	1	2	17:37
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BonkD · #59	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	12:36
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	22:41
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	23:34
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	28:46
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	15:11
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	2	0	1	8	0	24:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	40	3	37	.925	65:31

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR wins series 4-0

May 3

PHI0@

CAR3

May 4

PHI2@

CAR3

May 8

CAR4@

PHI1

May 9

CAR3@

PHI2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-19866%

PHI+16438%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat PHI 3-2. J. Blake led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
CAR	0	1	1	1	3
PHI	1	0	1	0	2

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · PHI won 1

CAR

PHI

Play-by-play · 382 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·5:31
Game End
CAR 3·PHI 2
1st OT·5:31
End of OT
CAR 3·PHI 2
1st OT·5:31
Jackson Blake Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (9), Jaccob Slavin (1)
· ·
CAR 3·PHI 2
1st OT·5:23
Giveaway by Jamie Drysdale
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·4:54
Sebastian Aho Tip-In saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·4:50
Jaccob Slavin shot blocked by Seth Jarvis
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·4:40
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·4:40
Puck in Netting
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·4:29
Travis Sanheim Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·3:59
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·3:59
Icing
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·3:44
Jordan Martinook Tip-In saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·3:20
Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Jordan Martinook
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·3:17
Sean Walker shot blocked by Denver Barkey
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·3:15
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jett Luchanko
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·3:15
Icing
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·3:05
Carl Grundstrom hit William Carrier
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·3:02
Eric Robinson shot blocked by Jamie Drysdale
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·2:56
Jett Luchanko shot blocked by Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·2:24
Denver Barkey faceoff won against Logan Stankoven
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·2:24
Icing
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·2:19
Travis Konecny hit Alexander Nikishin
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·2:10
Shayne Gostisbehere Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·1:31
Shayne Gostisbehere shot blocked by Christian Dvorak
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·1:30
Logan Stankoven faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·1:30
Puck in Netting
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·1:20
K'Andre Miller Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·1:18
Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·1:03
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Cam York
·
CAR 2·PHI 2
1st OT·0:53
Tyson Foerster hit Jaccob Slavin
·
CAR 2·PHI 2

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -198/PHI +164

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
CORSI%6699+
Shayne GostisbehereCAR · D
CORSI%6599+
Sebastian AhoCAR · C
CORSI%6499
Jackson BlakeCAR · RW
CORSI%6499
Seth JarvisCAR · C
CORSI%6499

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Porter Martone · PHI17:360.6647.5%50.6%17:36 TOI · 0.66 iXG · 47.5% CF · 50.6% xGF
Garnet Hathaway · PHI15:180.6116.0%39.5%15:18 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 16.0% CF · 39.5% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR17:240.4961.3%44.2%17:24 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 61.3% CF · 44.2% xGF
Taylor Hall · CAR16:480.4269.0%67.3%16:48 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 69.0% CF · 67.3% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR20:240.4176.9%78.8%20:24 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 76.9% CF · 78.8% xGF
Mark Jankowski · CAR14:180.3948.4%46.8%14:18 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 48.4% CF · 46.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Dan Vladar · PHI37–3.925+0.6437–3 · .925 SV% · +0.64 GSAx
Frederik Andersen · CAR15–2.882-0.1215–2 · .882 SV% · -0.12 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

32.5%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
44.8%
P(PHI win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
44.8%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
44.8%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.