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THE ONE Analytics
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STL logo
STL
1
LiveBot 5th
SD logo
SD
1
Updated 8:48 PM ET
BOT 5THTied
STL

STL

23-15

1
1
SD

SD

22-16

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

51.6%

SD wins · current

Pre-game: 54.0% SD

STL 1 · 1 SD

Tied

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5
away leadsSD leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↺Lead flipSDBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
    +17pp→ 60% WP

    France · homered to center (405 feet).

  • ↺Lead flipSTLTop 4th Inning · 1-0
    +13pp→ 53% WP

    Church · doubled to center, Walker scored.

Petco Park · San Diego, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.35

D. May

3-3 · 5.15 ERA

vs

R. Vasquez

3-1 · 3.20 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

SD no-vig %

57.2%

open 55.1% · +2.1

+0.5-2.0SD SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL61.2%51.1%SD NO-VIG %MODEL 54.0%May 8, 4 PMMay 9, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelLean
● Live
STL1

STL

Cardinals

23-15

vs54.0%SD

SD★

Padres

22-16

SD1
STL 46.0%win prob54.0% SD
SD 1519 · STL 1515Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

64%Last 7 · 64-36
59%Last 30 · 252-178
Receipts →

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

56.9%

+2.9ppvs pre-game · SD favored

Leverage

74

high

Tied · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

MLB·Sat, May 9·Bot 5th/SeriesSTL leads series 2-0/VegasSD -144
Updated 0s ago

STL · top performer

STL
Nathan Church

Nathan Church

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Ty France

Ty France

1B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 5thTied
STL23-15
1
1
SD22-16
STL23-15·SD22-16
STL

STL

23-15

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B1-33010000
I. HerreraI. Herrera★C1-33010001
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B0-22000001
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF1-22110001
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B1-22010001
M. WinnM. Winn★SS0-22000001
N. ChurchN. Church★LF2-22021000
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF0-22000000
P. PagesP. Pages★C0-22000001
Team6-2020161006
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP4.1211241
Team4.1211241
SD

SD

22-16

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF0-22000000
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF0-22000001
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B0-22000001
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B0-22000001
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS0-22000001
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF0-11000010
T. FranceT. France★1B1-22111100
S. SongS. Song★3B0-11000010
F. FerminF. Fermin★C1-22010000
Team2-1616121124
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. VasquezR. Vasquez★SP5.0611060
Team5.0611060

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • D. May
    76 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      26%·96.9 mph·15% whiff
    • FC
      24%·93.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·97.3 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      24%·86.5 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      3%·83.6 mph·100% whiff

SD

  • R. Vasquez
    94 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      31%·95.0 mph·21% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.1 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      16%·84.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      12%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      3%·85.5 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

2

1

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

STL leads series 2-0

May 8STLSTL2@SDSD1
May 9STLSTL6@SDSD0
May 9STLSTL@SDSDtoday
May 10STLSTL@SDSDupcoming

Season series

STL leads series 2-0

May 8STLSTL2@SDSD1
May 9STLSTL6@SDSD0
May 9STLSTL@SDSDtoday
May 10STLSTL@SDSDupcoming
Jun 15SDSD@STLSTLupcoming
Jun 16SDSD@STLSTLupcoming
Jun 17SDSD@STLSTLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SD -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+11946%
SDSD-14459%

↘6· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SD -1.5↗SpreadBet SD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
STLSTLSP
D. May

D. May

#3 · 3-3

ERA

5.15

K

25

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/3vsLADLAD6.0 IP · 3 ER · 3 KL(3-3)
4/27@PITPIT6.0 IP · 2 ER · 2 K-
4/21@MIAMIA5.1 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(3-2)
VS
SDSDSP
R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

#98 · 3-1

ERA

3.20

K

36

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/5@SFSF5.2 IP · 3 ER · 2 KL(3-1)
4/28vsCHCCHC5.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 KW(3-0)
4/22@COLCOL7.0 IP · 0 ER · 5 KW(2-0)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
STLSTL4L · 5R
  1. 1

    J. Wetherholt

    2B · #26

    L
  2. 2

    I. Herrera

    DH · #48

    R
  3. 3

    A. Burleson

    1B · #41

    L
  4. 4

    J. Walker

    RF · #18

    R
  5. 5

    N. Gorman

    3B · #16

    L
  6. 6

    M. Winn

    SS · #0

    R
  7. 7

    N. Church

    CF · #27

    L
  8. 8

    T. Saggese

    LF · #25

    R
  9. 9

    P. Pages

    C · #43

    R
SDSD3L · 6R
  1. 1

    J. Merrill

    CF · #3

    L
  2. 2

    F. Tatis Jr.

    RF · #23

    R
  3. 3

    M. Machado

    3B · #13

    R
  4. 4

    G. Sheets

    DH · #30

    L
  5. 5

    X. Bogaerts

    SS · #2

    R
  6. 6

    R. Laureano

    LF · #5

    R
  7. 7

    T. France

    1B · #25

    R
  8. 8

    S. Song

    2B · #24

    L
  9. 9

    F. Fermin

    C · #54

    R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 5th
Game flowSTL ↔ SD

Recent swing: 17pp · Bottom 5th Inning

Just happened

Fermin · to second on passed ball by Pagés, Song to third on passed ball by Pagés.

STLSTL
N. Church

N. Church

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 2 ER

SDSD
T. France

T. France

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 6 H

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 1 ER

How it's going

Tied 1-1 · Bot 5th.

Win probability

SD vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2T3T4T5
STL1
SD1

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 53% WP

Church · doubled to center, Walker scored.

SDBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
+17pp→ 60% WP

France · homered to center (405 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team12345R
STL000101
SD000011

Period scoring

STL won 1 · SD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Church 1

0
1

Inn 5

France 1

STL
SD

Play-by-play · 310 plays

period
event
player
  1. B5

    Fermin to second on passed ball by Pagés, Song to third on passed ball by Pagés.

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  2. B5

    Fermin to second on passed ball by Pagés, Song to third on passed ball by Pagés.

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  3. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  4. B5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  5. B5

    Dustin May pitches to Jackson Merrill

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  6. B5

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  7. B5

    Fermin singled to center, Song to second.

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 1

    +4pp

  8. B5

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  9. B5

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  10. B5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  11. B5

    Dustin May pitches to Freddy Fermin

    · ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  12. B5

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  13. B5

    Song walked.

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

    +3pp

  14. B5

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  15. B5

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  16. B5

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  17. B5

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  18. B5

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  19. B5

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  20. B5

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  21. B5

    Dustin May pitches to Sung-Mun Song

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  22. B5

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  23. B5

    France homered to center (405 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

    +17pp

  24. B5

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  25. B5

    Dustin May pitches to Ty France

    ·

    STL 1·SD 1

  26. B5

    ·

    STL 1·SD 0

  27. B5

    Laureano fouled out to right.

    ·

    STL 1·SD 0

    −4pp

  28. B5

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 1·SD 0

  29. B5

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 1·SD 0

  30. B5

    Dustin May pitches to Ramon Laureano

    ·

    STL 1·SD 0

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

SD

Home

1

Runs

1

6

Hits

2

1

Errors

0

7

TB

5

0

HR

1

0

BB

2

6

K

4

8

LOB

4

Betting line

SD -1.5·O/U 8·STL +119/SD -144

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

SD vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.6± 1.6low
  • Randy VasquezSD
    5.1± 3.2low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    4.5± 2.0medium

Hits

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    2.3± 1.5high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    2.3± 2.4high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.9± 3.1medium

RBIs

  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.0± 1.3high
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.8± 1.6medium

Earned runs

  • Matt WaldronSD
    4.0± 3.3low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    3.0± 3.4low
  • Walker BuehlerSD
    2.7± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    54.0%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.4%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.3%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live · 11
  • MLBBot 5
    STL 1@SD 1
    +2.9pphigh
  • MLBTop 3
    MIN 1@CLE 0
    -42.6ppmedium
  • MLBTop 6
    NYM 1@ARI 2
    +28.0ppmedium
  • MLBTop 6
    NYY 2@MIL 0
    -45.8pplow
  • MLBBot 5
    SEA 1@CHW 4
    +54.3pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    COL 3@PHI 7
    +33.5pplow
  • MLBBot 5
    CHC 0@TEX 5
    +57.7pplow
  • MLBMid 7
    DET 0@KC 5
    +43.2pplow
  • NBA7:53 - 1st
    OKC 10@LAL 10
    -0.4ppmedium
  • WNBA1:25 - 2nd
    ATL 33@MIN 51
  • NHL0:57 - 3rd
    CAR 2@PHI 2