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TOP 6TH+2NYY

NYY

26-13

MIL

20-16

Live · model leanTop 6thPolls every 30s

62.3%

NYY wins · current

Pre-game: 52.2% NYY

NYY 2 · 0 MIL

NYY +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsMIL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingNYYTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 76% WP
Goldschmidt · reached on infield single to third, Rosario scored, Caballero to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 3.64

C. Schlittler

5-1 · 1.52 ERA

K. Harrison

3-1 · 2.12 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

42.8%

open 43.7% · -0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
47.8%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.1%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.3%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

2.0%

-45.8ppvs pre-game · NYY favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.85

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+123

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Market faded the model

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

MIL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 56 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.8low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.6± 2.0low
Will WarrenNYY
6.6± 3.3low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.3± 2.1low
Cody BellingerNYY
1.4± 1.2high
William ContrerasMIL
1.3± 1.5high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
3.3± 3.4low
Ben RiceNYY
2.7± 2.5high
Cody BellingerNYY
2.7± 3.1high

RBIs

Cody BellingerNYY
1.1± 1.5high
Andrew VaughnMIL
1.0± 1.9low
Tyler BlackMIL
0.9± 1.8low

Earned runs

Brandon SproatMIL
2.9± 3.3low
Max FriedNYY
2.1± 2.9low
Will WarrenNYY
2.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

● Live

NYY★

Yankees

27-13

vs52.2%NYY

MIL

Brewers

20-16

NYY 52.2%win prob47.8% MIL

NYY 1581 · MIL 1541Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9Top 6thSeriesMIL leads series 1-0VegasNYY -136

Updated 0s ago

NYY · top performer

Paul Goldschmidt

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

RBI

MIL · top performer

William Contreras

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Top 6th

NYY26-13

MIL20-16

NYY26-13MIL20-16

NYY

26-13

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
P. Goldschmidt★1B	2-3	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
B. Rice★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Judge★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Bellinger★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Rosario★3B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Chisholm Jr.★2B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Caballero★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. Jones★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Wells★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	5-19	19	2	5	2	1	4	8

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
C. Schlittler★SP	5.0	2	0	0	0	6	0
Team	5.0	2	0	0	0	6	0

MIL

20-16

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Chourio★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Turang★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Contreras★C	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Bauers★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Black★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Frelick★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Mitchell★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Rengifo★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Hamilton★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	2-18	18	0	2	0	0	0	6

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
K. Harrison★SP	4.0	4	2	2	4	6	1
C. PatrickSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0
Team	5.0	5	2	2	4	8	1

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

C. Schlittler
82 pitches27% CSW
- FF
  50%98.1 mph29% whiff
- FC
  37%94.4 mph17% whiff
- SI
  10%97.7 mph0% whiff
- SL
  4%89.6 mph— whiff

MIL

K. Harrison
77 pitches36% CSW
- FF
  56%95.3 mph40% whiff
- SV
  36%82.2 mph57% whiff
- CH
  6%86.2 mph0% whiff
- SI
  1%93.2 mph0% whiff
C. Patrick
14 pitches36% CSW
- FC
  57%90.7 mph33% whiff
- SI
  29%96.2 mph0% whiff
- FF
  14%96.1 mph— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

MIL leads series 1-0

May 8

NYY0@

MIL6

May 9

NYY@

MILtoday

May 10

NYY@

MILupcoming

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

May 8

NYY0@

MIL6

May 9

NYY@

MILtoday

May 10

NYY@

MILupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYY-13658%

MIL+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

NYYSP

C. Schlittler

#31 · 5-1

ERA

1.52

—

Last 3 starts

5/4vs

BAL5.2 IP · 1 ER · 4 KW(5-1)

4/29@

TEX6.0 IP · 0 ER · 8 KW(4-1)

4/23@

BOS8.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(3-1)

MILSP

K. Harrison

#52 · 3-1

ERA

2.12

—

Last 3 starts

5/2@

WSH6.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 KW(3-1)

4/26vs

PIT6.0 IP · 0 ER · 12 KW(2-1)

4/21@

DET3.0 IP · 1 ER · 3 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

NYY5L · 4R

1
P. Goldschmidt
1B · #48
R
2
B. Rice
DH · #22
L
3
A. Judge
RF · #99
R
4
C. Bellinger
LF · #35
L
5
A. Rosario
3B · #14
R
6
J. Chisholm Jr.
2B · #13
L
7
J. Caballero
SS · #72
R
8
S. Jones
CF · #78
L
9
A. Wells
C · #28
L

MIL6L · 2R · 1S

1
J. Chourio
LF · #11
R
2
B. Turang
2B · #2
L
3
W. Contreras
C · #24
R
4
J. Bauers
1B · #9
L
5
T. Black
DH · #7
L
6
S. Frelick
RF · #10
L
7
G. Mitchell
CF · #5
L
8
L. Rengifo
3B · #13
B
9
D. Hamilton
SS · #6
L

Live · top performers so far

Top 6th

Game flowNYY ↔ MIL

Recent swing: 10pp · Top 4th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 2 : Ball 2

NYY

P. Goldschmidt

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

C. Schlittler

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H

On pace: 7 IP · 8 K · 0 ER

MIL

W. Contreras

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

K. Harrison

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 11 K · 4 ER

How it's going

NYY lead MIL 2-0 (Top 6th).

Win probability

MIL vs NYY

Score progression

0 lead changes

NYY2

MIL0

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NYYTop 4th Inning · 2-0

+10pp→ 76% WP

Goldschmidt · reached on infield single to third, Rosario scored, Caballero to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	R
NYY	1	0	0	1	0	0	2
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	—	0

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · MIL won 0

Inn 1

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Goldschmidt 1

Inn 5

Inn 6

NYY

MIL

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

T6
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
T6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
T6
Chad Patrick pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
T6
Top of the 6th inning
NYY 2·MIL 0
End 5t
End of the 5th inning
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
· ·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Hamilton grounded out to second.
· ·
NYY 2·MIL 0
−2pp
B5
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul
· ·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Cam Schlittler pitches to David Hamilton
· ·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Rengifo grounded into fielder's choice to third, Mitchell out at second.
· ·
NYY 2·MIL 0
−3pp
B5
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Cam Schlittler pitches to Luis Rengifo
· ·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Mitchell singled to left.
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
+3pp
B5
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Cam Schlittler pitches to Garrett Mitchell
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Frelick popped out to third.
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
−3pp
B5
Pitch 9 : Ball In Play
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
·
NYY 2·MIL 0
B5
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
·
NYY 2·MIL 0

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7.5·NYY -136/MIL +113

DraftKings · via ESPN