MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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BOT 5TH+3CHW

SEA

19-20

CHW

17-21

Live · model leanBot 5thPolls every 30s

64.0%

CHW wins · current

Pre-game: 55.3% SEA

SEA 1 · 4 CHW

CHW +3

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 5

away leadsCHW leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCHWTop 4th Inning · 0-4
+8pp→ 90% WP
Naylor · grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Rodríguez out at second.
SwingCHWBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+14pp→ 87% WP
Vargas · homered to left center (410 feet), Antonacci scored.
SwingSEATop 3rd Inning · 0-2
+6pp→ 40% WP
Garver · safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Kay, Garver safe at second on error.
Lead flipCHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 64% WP
Montgomery · homered to right (367 feet), Antonacci scored.

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 11.99

L. Castillo

0-3 · 6.29 ERA

A. Kay

1-1 · 5.70 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CHW no-vig %

44.4%

open 44.9% · -0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
44.7%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.4%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.5%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

71% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+54.3ppvs pre-game · CHW favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

CHW vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 62 high confidence

Strikeouts

Emerson HancockSEA
6.3± 4.9low
Davis MartinCHW
6.1± 3.1low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.4± 2.2low

Hits

Josh NaylorSEA
1.2± 1.1high
Julio RodriguezSEA
1.2± 0.9high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Julio RodriguezSEA
2.4± 2.8high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
2.1± 2.6high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

Luke RaleySEA
0.9± 2.3high
Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.3high
Josh NaylorSEA
0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

Luis CastilloSEA
3.4± 3.7low
Anthony KayCHW
2.7± 3.5low
Noah SchultzCHW
2.6± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

SEA★

Mariners

19-20

vs55.3%SEA

CHW

White Sox

17-21

SEA 55.3%win prob44.7% CHW

SEA 1520 · CHW 1459Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9Bot 5thSeriesSEA leads series 1-0VegasSEA -131

Updated 0s ago

SEA · top performer

Julio Rodriguez

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

RBI

CHW · top performer

Miguel Vargas

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 5th

SEA19-20

CHW17-21

SEA19-20CHW17-21

SEA

19-20

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. Refsnyder★RF	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
C. Raleigh★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Rodriguez★CF	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Naylor★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Arozarena★LF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J.P. Crawford★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Garver★C	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. Young★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Rivas★3B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	3-16	16	1	3	1	0	2	5

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
L. Castillo★SP	4.0	5	4	4	0	6	2
J. SimpsonRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	4.2	5	4	4	0	7	2

CHW

17-21

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. Antonacci★LF	1-2	2	2	1	0	0	0	1
M. Murakami★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Vargas★3B	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
C. Montgomery★SS	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. Meidroth★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Kelenic★RF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Peters★CF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Grichuk★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Quero★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	5-19	19	4	5	4	2	0	7

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
A. Kay★SP	5.0	3	1	0	2	5	0
Team	5.0	3	1	0	2	5	0

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

L. Castillo
84 pitches29% CSW
- FF
  44%94.1 mph40% whiff
- SL
  26%83.7 mph42% whiff
- SI
  15%94.2 mph11% whiff
- CH
  13%85.7 mph17% whiff
- FC
  1%89.4 mph— whiff
J. Simpson
4 pitches25% CSW
- SI
  100%92.3 mph0% whiff

CHW

A. Kay
88 pitches26% CSW
- ST
  24%82.2 mph33% whiff
- SI
  23%95.2 mph11% whiff
- CH
  20%85.9 mph38% whiff
- FC
  18%91.6 mph10% whiff
- FF
  13%95.6 mph14% whiff
- SL
  2%83.7 mph0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

SEA leads series 1-0

May 8

SEA12@

CHW8

May 9

SEA@

CHWtoday

May 10

SEA@

CHWupcoming

Season series

SEA leads series 1-0

May 8

SEA12@

CHW8

May 9

SEA@

CHWtoday

May 10

SEA@

CHWupcoming

May 19

CHW@

SEAupcoming

May 20

CHW@

SEAupcoming

May 20

CHW@

SEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA-13157%

CHW+10948%

6· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

SEASP

L. Castillo

#58 · 0-3

ERA

6.29

—

Last 3 starts

5/3vs

KC6.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 KL(0-3)

4/27@

MIN5.0 IP · 7 ER · 3 KL(0-2)

4/22vs

ATH5.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K-

CHWSP

A. Kay

#18 · 1-1

ERA

5.70

—

Last 3 starts

5/3@

SD5.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 K-

4/27vs

LAA4.0 IP · 4 ER · 2 K-

4/23@

ARI3.2 IP · 8 ER · 1 KL(1-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

SEA3L · 4R · 2S

1
R. Refsnyder
RF · #30
R
2
C. Raleigh
DH · #29
B
3
J. Rodriguez
CF · #44
R
4
J. Naylor
1B · #12
L
5
R. Arozarena
LF · #56
R
6
J.P. Crawford
SS · #3
L
7
M. Garver
C · #18
R
8
C. Young
2B · #2
L
9
L. Rivas
3B · #76
B

CHW5L · 3R · 1S

1
S. Antonacci
LF · #17
L
2
M. Murakami
1B · #5
L
3
M. Vargas
3B · #20
R
4
C. Montgomery
SS · #12
L
5
C. Meidroth
2B · #10
R
6
J. Kelenic
RF · #24
L
7
T. Peters
CF · #29
L
8
R. Grichuk
DH · #34
R
9
E. Quero
C · #26
B

Live · top performers so far

Bot 5th

Game flowSEA ↔ CHW

Recent swing: 14pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

Just happened

Josh Simpson · pitches to Miguel Vargas

SEA

J. Rodriguez

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

L. Castillo

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 5 H

On pace: 7 IP · 11 K · 7 ER

CHW

M. Vargas

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

A. Kay

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 0 ER

How it's going

CHW lead SEA 4-1 (Bot 5th). Montgomery's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

CHW vs SEA

Score progression

0 lead changes

SEA1

CHW4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-2

+18pp→ 64% WP

Montgomery · homered to right (367 feet), Antonacci scored.

CHWBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4

+14pp→ 87% WP

Vargas · homered to left center (410 feet), Antonacci scored.

CHWTop 4th Inning · 0-4

+8pp→ 90% WP

Naylor · grounded into double play, first to shortstop, Rodríguez out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	R
SEA	0	0	0	0	1	1
CHW	2	0	2	0	0	4

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · CHW won 2

Inn 1

Montgomery 2

Inn 2

Inn 3

Vargas 2

Inn 4

Inn 5

Refsnyder 1

SEA

CHW

Play-by-play · 326 plays

period

event

player

B5
Josh Simpson pitches to Miguel Vargas
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
Murakami flied out to right.
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
−0.7pp
B5
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
Josh Simpson pitches to Munetaka Murakami
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
Antonacci struck out swinging.
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
−1pp
B5
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
Josh Simpson pitches to Sam Antonacci
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
Simpson relieved Castillo
·
SEA 1·CHW 4
B5
Bottom of the 5th inning
SEA 1·CHW 4
M5
Middle of the 5th inning
SEA 1·CHW 4
T5
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
T5
Raleigh struck out looking.
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
+3pp
T5
Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
T5
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
T5
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
T5
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
T5
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
T5
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
T5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
T5
Anthony Kay pitches to Cal Raleigh
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
T5
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
T5
Refsnyder hit sacrifice fly to left, Garver scored.
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4
+3pp
T5
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
SEA 1·CHW 4

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 9.5·SEA -131/CHW +109

DraftKings · via ESPN