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MID 7TH+5KC

DET

18-21

Live · model leanMid 7thPolls every 30s

75.2%

KC wins · current

Pre-game: 55.8% KC

DET 0 · 5 KC

KC +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsKC leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingKCBottom 4th Inning · 0-5
+12pp→ 96% WP
Massey · homered to right center (403 feet), Jensen scored and Caglianone scored.
SwingKCBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 83% WP
Witt Jr. · homered to right (17 feet), Garcia scored.

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 4.64

B. Smith

0-1 · 1.59 ERA

M. Wacha

3-2 · 3.05 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.0 · +0.5

KC no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
55.8%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.1%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.27 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+43.2ppvs pre-game · KC favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

KC vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kris BubicKC
5.9± 3.7low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.3± 3.4low
Seth LugoKC
5.3± 2.4low

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.2high
Riley GreeneDET
1.2± 1.0high
Maikel GarciaKC
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.0± 2.1high
Riley GreeneDET
1.8± 1.6high
Elias DiazKC
1.8± 2.4low

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 1.1high
Matt VierlingDET
0.7± 0.8high
Nick LoftinKC
0.7± 1.5medium

Earned runs

Noah CameronKC
3.2± 2.5low
Jack FlahertyDET
2.6± 2.9low
Kris BubicKC
2.3± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

DET

Tigers

18-22

vs55.8%KC

KC★

Royals

19-21

DET 44.2%win prob55.8% KC

KC 1501 · DET 1485Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

MLBSat, May 9Mid 7thSeriesKC leads series 1-0VegasKC -130

Updated 0s ago

DET · top performer

Kerry Carpenter

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

RBI

KC · top performer

Michael Massey

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

RBI

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Mid 7th

DET18-21

KC18-21

DET18-21KC18-21

DET

18-21

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
K. McGonigle★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Vierling★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Keith★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Greene★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. Dingler★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Carpenter★RF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Torkelson★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Z. McKinstry★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Rogers★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. PerezRF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	2-24	24	0	2	0	0	2	6

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
B. Smith★RP	0.1	3	2	2	0	0	1
T. HoltonRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. MaddenSP	4.0	2	3	3	2	5	1
Team	6.0	6	5	5	2	5	2

18-21

	Batting
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. Garcia★3B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. Witt Jr.★SS	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
V. Pasquantino★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. Perez★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Jensen★C	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. Caglianone★RF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. Thomas★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Massey★2B	1-2	2	1	1	3	1	0	0
K. Isbel★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	6-22	22	5	6	5	2	2	5

	Pitching
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
M. Wacha★SP	7.0	2	0	0	2	6	0
Team	7.0	2	0	0	2	6	0

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

T. Madden
70 pitches29% CSW
- FF
  30%92.8 mph9% whiff
- FC
  24%87.4 mph50% whiff
- SI
  17%91.8 mph33% whiff
- SL
  17%83.4 mph38% whiff
- FS
  9%84.3 mph0% whiff
- KC
  3%80.6 mph— whiff
T. Holton
13 pitches31% CSW
- SI
  54%91.1 mph0% whiff
- ST
  31%80.1 mph0% whiff
- CU
  8%79.2 mph0% whiff
- FC
  8%86.1 mph— whiff
B. Smith
11 pitches9% CSW
- FC
  36%88.4 mph0% whiff
- FF
  36%94.9 mph0% whiff
- CU
  27%83.6 mph0% whiff

M. Wacha
89 pitches26% CSW
- FF
  34%93.0 mph0% whiff
- CH
  28%80.5 mph22% whiff
- FC
  21%89.3 mph0% whiff
- SI
  10%93.5 mph20% whiff
- CU
  6%76.8 mph0% whiff
- SL
  1%86.5 mph— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

KC leads series 1-0

May 8

DET3@

KC4

May 9

DET@

KCtoday

May 10

DET@

KCupcoming

Season series

DET leads series 3-1

Apr 14

KC1@

DET2

Apr 15

KC1@

DET2

Apr 16

KC9@

DET10

May 8

DET3@

KC4

May 9

DET@

KCtoday

May 10

DET@

KCupcoming

Jul 23

KC@

DETupcoming

Jul 24

KC@

DETupcoming

Jul 25

KC@

DETupcoming

Jul 26

KC@

DETupcoming

Aug 22

DET@

KCupcoming

Aug 22

DET@

KCupcoming

Aug 23

DET@

KCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

DET+10848%

KC-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

+0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

DETRP

B. Smith

#65 · 0-1

ERA

1.59

—

Last 3 starts

5/6vs

BOS1.0 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-

5/5vs

BOS2.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 K-

5/3vs

TEX1.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K-

KCSP

M. Wacha

#52 · 3-2

ERA

3.05

—

Last 3 starts

5/4vs

CLE7.0 IP · 2 ER · 3 KW(3-2)

4/30@

ATH5.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 KL(2-2)

4/22vs

BAL5.1 IP · 6 ER · 5 KL(2-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

DET5L · 4R

1
K. McGonigle
SS · #7
L
2
M. Vierling
CF · #8
R
3
C. Keith
3B · #33
L
4
R. Greene
LF · #31
L
5
D. Dingler
DH · #13
R
6
K. Carpenter
RF · #30
L
7
S. Torkelson
1B · #20
R
8
Z. McKinstry
2B · #39
L
9
J. Rogers
C · #34
R

KC5L · 4R

1
M. Garcia
3B · #11
R
2
B. Witt Jr.
SS · #7
R
3
V. Pasquantino
1B · #9
L
4
S. Perez
DH · #13
R
5
C. Jensen
C · #22
L
6
J. Caglianone
RF · #14
L
7
L. Thomas
LF · #15
R
8
M. Massey
2B · #19
L
9
K. Isbel
CF · #28
L

Live · top performers so far

Mid 7th

Game flowDET ↔ KC

Just happened

Middle of the 7th inning

DET

K. Carpenter

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

T. Madden

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

M. Massey

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

M. Wacha

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it's going

KC lead DET 5-0 (Mid 7th).

Win probability

KC vs DET

Score progression

0 lead changes

DET0

KC5

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

KCBottom 1st Inning · 0-2

+10pp→ 83% WP

Witt Jr. · homered to right (17 feet), Garcia scored.

KCBottom 4th Inning · 0-5

+12pp→ 96% WP

Massey · homered to right center (403 feet), Jensen scored and Caglianone scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	R
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
KC	2	0	0	3	0	0	—	5

Period scoring

DET won 0 · KC won 2

Inn 1

Jr. 2

Inn 2

Inn 3

Inn 4

Massey 3

Inn 5

Inn 6

Inn 7

DET

Play-by-play · 373 plays

period

event

player

M7
Middle of the 7th inning
DET 0·KC 5
T7
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Rogers fouled out to third.
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Michael Wacha pitches to Jake Rogers
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
McKinstry grounded out to shortstop.
·
DET 0·KC 5
+0.5pp
T7
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Michael Wacha pitches to Zach McKinstry
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Torkelson flied out to right.
·
DET 0·KC 5
+0.7pp
T7
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Michael Wacha pitches to Spencer Torkelson
·
DET 0·KC 5
T7
Top of the 7th inning
DET 0·KC 5
End 6t
End of the 6th inning
DET 0·KC 5
B6
·
DET 0·KC 5
B6
Caglianone struck out swinging.
·
DET 0·KC 5
B6
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
DET 0·KC 5
B6
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
·
DET 0·KC 5
B6
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
DET 0·KC 5
B6
Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
DET 0·KC 5
B6
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
DET 0·KC 5
B6
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
DET 0·KC 5
B6
Ty Madden pitches to Jac Caglianone
·
DET 0·KC 5
B6
·
DET 0·KC 5

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

Home

Runs

Hits

Errors

LOB

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 9·DET +108/KC -130

DraftKings · via ESPN