MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

TOR

16-18

MIN

15-20

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

20,394 attended

Line movement

83 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIN no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.9%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
44.9%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.6%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

MIN vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.9low
Joe RyanMIN
6.1± 3.4low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.1± 3.0low

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.3± 1.0high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.2± 0.7high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Ernie ClementTOR
2.1± 2.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 2.1high
Kody ClemensMIN
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Tristan GrayMIN
0.7± 1.6high
Josh BellMIN
0.6± 1.0high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Max ScherzerTOR
4.2± 4.0low
Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
3.2± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

MIN

.701

OPS

.715

.706

.313

OBP

.319

.315

4.09

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.49

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.79

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

TOR 3 · MIN 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3
MIN	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Y. PinangoLF	.462	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Okamoto3B	.236	4	1	1	2	1	1	2
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.333	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
J. SanchezRF	.250	5	0	3	0	0	0	1
L. Sosa2B	.262	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. VarshoCF	.243	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
E. Clement2B	.291	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. GimenezSS	.259	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.294	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. SchneiderLF	.137	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.205	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	3	11	3	1	3	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.462

.236

.333

.250

.262

.243

.291

.259

.176

.294

.137

.205

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. YesavageSP	4.0	5	1	1	3	6	82
B. FisherRP	0.2	2	3	3	1	1	18
J. MantiplyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14
T. NanceRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	14
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
Team	8.0	9	4	4	4	9	140

Player

4.0

0.2

1.0

1.1

1.0

Team

8.0

140

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. BuxtonCF	.254	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. LarnachLF	.280	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. MartinRF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
V. CaratiniC	.217	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
L. Keaschall2B	.223	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.205	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
R. Lewis3B	.176	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. WallnerRF	.175	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
B. LeeSS	.255	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. OutmanCF	.129	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	9	4	0	4	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. RyanSP	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	9
A. MorrisRP	3.2	2	0	0	1	3	57
T. RogersRP	2.1	4	1	1	0	3	32
E. OrzeRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	24
K. FunderburkRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. TopaRP	1.0	4	2	2	0	0	17
Team	9.0	11	3	3	3	9	142

Team

TOR

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIN vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.