MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PHI

PHI

14-20

MIA

16-18

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

21,662 attended

Line movement

91 snapshots

MIA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIA no-vig %

45.1%

open 43.7% · +1.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
48.4%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.6%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.40

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+112

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

45.1%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

MIA vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.1± 3.4low
Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 1.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.2± 1.3high
Alec BohmPHI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 2.0high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.1high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.4± 3.1low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

MIA

.684

OPS

.715

▶

.706

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.31

4.05

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.11

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 7 · MIA 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	6	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. TurnerSS	.243	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. SchwarberDH	.220	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
B. Harper1B	.256	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. Bohm3B	.162	5	1	1	1	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.311	4	1	2	1	0	1	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.250	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.206	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
F. ReyesLF	.143	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
J. CrawfordCF	.268	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		37	7	11	7	1	3	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.243

.220

.256

.162

.311

.250

.206

.143

.268

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. LuzardoSP	6.1	8	2	2	0	10	102
C. ShugartRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	15
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	9	2	2	0	10	126

Player

J. LuzardoSP

6.1

102

C. ShugartRP

1.2

O. KerkeringRP

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
O. LopezSS	.341	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
A. RamirezC	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. StowersLF	.217	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Norby1B	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
X. Edwards2B	.336	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Morel1B	.273	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
L. Jimenez3B	.188	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
E. RuizRF	.286	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
J. Sanoja3B	.304	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. CaissieRF	.207	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. Pauley3B	.186	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	9	2	1	0	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. PaddackSP	2.2	6	7	7	3	1	73
J. KingRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	15
T. PhillipsRP	3.0	4	0	0	0	3	47
J. EknessRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
C. FaucherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	11	7	7	3	6	156

Team

PHI

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIA vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.