MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12MIL

ARI

16-14

113

MIL

16-14

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

26,849 attended

Line movement

47 snapshots

MIL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

MIL no-vig %

55.3%

open 55.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.8%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
59.4%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.0%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.2%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.96 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-137

Close price

-137

Open no-vig

55.3%

Close no-vig

55.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

MIL vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.6low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.3± 5.5low
Michael SorokaARI
5.2± 2.7low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.2high
Andrew VaughnMIL
1.4± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 2.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.2± 2.5high
Brice TurangMIL
2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Brice TurangMIL
0.9± 1.2high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.5low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.4± 3.5low
Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

MIL

.691

OPS

.715

▶

.729

.306

OBP

.319

▶

.340

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.34

4.25

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.42

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

ARI 1 · MIL 13 (by 12)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
MIL	3	0	3	2	0	3	1	1	13

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. PerdomoSS	.236	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. Marte2B	.233	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. CarrollRF	.296	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.207	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
I. Vargas1B	.378	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.194	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
N. Arenado3B	.276	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. ThomasCF	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. McCannC	.191	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FernandezDH	.325	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.159	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	1	6	1	0	2	13

Player

AVG

RBI

.236

.233

.296

.207

.378

.194

.276

.188

.191

.325

.200

.159

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. SorokaSP	3.0	10	8	8	2	2	79
J. McCannC	1.0	1	1	0	2	0	24
P. AbnerRP	2.1	1	2	2	1	1	34
J. LoaisigaRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	17
B. PfaadtRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	15
Team	8.0	14	13	12	6	6	169

Player

3.0

1.0

2.1

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

169

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. MitchellCF	.244	4	3	2	0	0	1	1
B. Turang2B	.291	3	3	2	1	0	2	0
W. ContrerasC	.288	4	3	4	4	1	1	0
J. Bauers1B	.260	4	2	1	1	0	1	0
T. BlackDH	.389	4	0	2	3	0	1	0
L. Rengifo3B	.188	5	0	1	3	0	0	1
S. FrelickRF	.211	5	1	1	1	1	0	0
G. JonesLF	.095	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. HamiltonSS	.240	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		37	13	14	13	2	6	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. WoodruffSP	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	21
G. AndersonRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
S. DrohanRP	4.0	5	1	1	0	4	60
T. MegillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
B. FitzpatrickRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20
J. WoodfordRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
Team	9.0	6	1	1	2	13	131

Team

ARI

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

MIL vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIL vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.