HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBTop 7
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -7.3pppeak
  • MLBTop 1
    TB 0@LAA 0
    -4.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.5pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.1pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA36.6 - 4th
    TOR 80@WSH 84
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8LAA
SD

SD

13-7

0
8
LAA

LAA

11-10

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
44,551 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

LAA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAA no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0LAA SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.1%51.1%LAA NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMJun 1, 7 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SD

SD

league avg

LAA

LAA

.652

OPS

.715

▶

.701

.292

OBP

.319

▶

.315

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.46

3.96

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.68

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

SD 0 · LAA 8 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000000000
LAA030320008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Apr 17·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1/VegasLAA -136

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off San Diego Padres, 8–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAA -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. FrazierLAA+18.4pp
  2. 2M. WaldronSD−17.4pp
  3. 3J. SorianoLAA+9.8pp

SD · top performer

SD
Ty France

Ty France

1B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Josh Lowe

Josh Lowe

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. Cronenworth2B
.1384000002
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2393000011
J. MerrillCF
.2474000002
M. Machado3B
.2104010002
X. BogaertsSS
.2602000010
G. Sheets1B
.2464010001
N. CastellanosRF
.1634000004
T. France1B
.2803010000
L. CampusanoC
.3001000020
- B. JohnsonRF
.0831000001
Team300300413

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. WaldronSP
3.28661481
D. MorganRP
0.23222138
W. PeraltaRP
1.22000325
B. RodriguezRP
1.00000015
K. HartRP
1.00000113
Team8.0138839172

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoSS
.2475021001
M. TroutCF
.2363100021
N. Schanuel1B
.2275131001
J. AdellRF
.3025012002
Y. Moncada3B
.1725111101
O. Peraza2B
.2864120000
J. LoweLF
.1674122101
L. O'HoppeC
.2112100011
A. Frazier2B
.3334221001
- B. TeodosioLF
.1050000000
Team378138239

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. SorianoSP
5.22004899
C. SilsethRP
0.1000001
S. AndersonRP
2.00000230
J. RomanoRP
1.01000319
Team9.0300413149

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

LAA

  • S. Anderson
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • CH
      100%·85.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

13

0

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Apr 18SDSD0@LAALAA8today
Apr 19SDSD4@LAALAA1
Apr 19SDSD2@LAALAA1

Season series

LAA lead series 1-0

Apr 18SDSD0@LAALAA8today
Apr 19SDSD4@LAALAA1
Apr 19SDSD2@LAALAA1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAA -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SDSD+11347%
LAALAA-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗SpreadBet LAA -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

SDSD
T. France

T. France

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

M. Waldron

M. Waldron

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

LAALAA
J. Lowe

J. Lowe

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

How it ended

LAA beat SD 8-0.

Win probability

LAA vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 76% WP

Moncada · homered to center (388 feet).

LAABottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 83% WP

Frazier · tripled to right, O'Hoppe scored.

LAATop 3rd Inning · 0-3
+6pp→ 89% WP

Merrill · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000000000
LAA03032000—8

Period scoring

SD won 0 · LAA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Moncada 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Adell 2

0
2

Inn 5

Lowe 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SD
LAA

Play-by-play · 598 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  2. T9

    Castellanos struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  8. T9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Nick Castellanos

    · ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  9. T9

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  10. T9

    Sheets doubled to center.

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  16. T9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Gavin Sheets

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  17. T9

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  18. T9

    Johnson struck out looking.

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  24. T9

    Jordan Romano pitches to Bryce Johnson

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  25. T9

    Johnson hit for Bogaerts

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  26. T9

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  27. T9

    Machado struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 0·LAA 8

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

0

Runs

8

3

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

4

TB

22

0

HR

2

4

BB

3

13

K

9

9

LOB

19

Betting line

LAA -1.5·O/U 8.5·SD +113/LAA -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bryce TeodosioLAA · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

LAA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 64 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    7.0± 4.0low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    5.8± 2.5low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.1± 1.4medium
  • Jo AdellLAA
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.9± 2.3medium
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.9± 1.8high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.6low
  • Jose SiriLAA
    0.8± 1.5medium
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.8± 1.6medium

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.2± 3.8low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.3± 2.8low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.6± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.1%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    43.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.0%

    P(LAA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.5%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.