MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ATH

TEX

9-8

ATH

9-8

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

8,031 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ATH no-vig %

45.8%

open 45.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.9%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
52.0%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.4%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.5%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

ATH vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.5low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.8low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.6± 3.6low

Hits

Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Josh JungTEX
1.2± 0.8high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high
Elias DiazTEX
0.7± 1.1low

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low
Jack LeiterTEX
2.9± 2.6low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

ATH

.700

OPS

.715

▶

.735

.317

OBP

.319

▶

.326

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.38

3.71

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.62

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

TEX 1 · ATH 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
ATH	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. NimmoRF	.333	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. LangfordLF	.161	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. SeagerSS	.197	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Burger1B	.246	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
S. HaggertyLF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Jung3B	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. McCutchenDH	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JansenC	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. Duran2B	.242	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Smith2B	.180	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. CarterCF	.208	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PedersonDH	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	4	1	0	4	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.333

.161

.197

.246

.200

.245

.231

.231

.242

.180

.208

.211

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. GoreSP	4.2	3	2	2	6	5	94
C. MartinRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
R. GarciaRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	22
L. CurveloRP	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	2
T. AlexanderRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	27
Team	8.0	4	2	2	8	11	150

Player

4.2

0.1

1.2

0.0

1.1

Team

8.0

150

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. LangeliersC	.297	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
N. Kurtz1B	.200	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. WilsonSS	.239	3	0	1	2	0	1	1
T. SoderstromLF	.203	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
M. Muncy3B	.302	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. WynnsC	.167	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
Z. Gelof3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. McNeil2B	.288	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. ClarkeCF	.163	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
L. ButlerRF	.176	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		26	2	4	2	0	8	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. SpringsSP	6.1	3	1	1	2	5	90
J. SternerRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	12
H. HarrisRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	0	19
E. AlvaradoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	4	1	1	4	8	135

Team

TEX

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

ATH vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.