HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 11
  • MLBTop 7
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -7.3pppeak
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBMid 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBEnd 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +57.1pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.1pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA50.5 - 4th
    TOR 80@WSH 83
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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+7TEX
TEX

TEX

9-7

8
1
ATH

ATH

8-8

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,344 attended

Line movement

15 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ATH no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

+2.0+1.0ATH SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL50.8%42.8%ATH NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMJun 12, 9 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

TEX

league avg

ATH

ATH

.700

OPS

.715

▶

.735

.317

OBP

.319

▶

.326

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.38

3.71

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.62

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 8 · ATH 1 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX3010000408
ATH0000000101

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Apr 13·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasTEX -126

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Athletics and beat them, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

TEX -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. BurgerTEX+27.0pp
  2. 2C. SeagerTEX+26.5pp
  3. 3L. SeverinoATH−26.2pp

TEX · top performer

TEX
Jake Burger

Jake Burger

1B

2.600OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Max Muncy

Max Muncy

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoRF
.3385000004
E. CarterCF
.2134100012
C. SeagerSS
.2074210011
J. Burger1B
.2464224211
J. PedersonDH
.2165130001
K. HigashiokaC
.3334120010
J. Smith2B
.1804112001
J. Jung3B
.2444012001
E. Duran2B
.2583010011
- S. HaggertyLF
.2500000000
Team3781182512

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
N. EovaldiSP
7.03002784
L. CurveloRP
2.02110119
Team9.051128103

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerRF
.1804111100
N. Kurtz1B
.1923000012
S. LangeliersC
.3064020002
T. SoderstromLF
.2103000010
J. WilsonSS
.2344000000
J. McNeil2B
.3134010000
M. Muncy3B
.3171010000
C. CortesRF
.2923000000
D. ClarkeCF
.1502000002
- A. WynnsC
.1110000000
- D. HernaizSS
.1882000001
- Z. Gelof3B
.0001000001
Team31151128

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
L. SeverinoSP
6.06443794
J. PerkinsRP
1.25441443
L. MedinaRP
1.10001126
Team9.01188512163

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • L. Curvelo
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • FS
      50%·90.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      50%·79.8 mph·— whiff

ATH

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

8

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 14TEXTEX8@ATHATH1today
Apr 15TEXTEX1@ATHATH2
Apr 16TEXTEX5@ATHATH6
Apr 16TEXTEX9@ATHATH6

Season series

TEX leads series 1-0

Apr 14TEXTEX8@ATHATH1today
Apr 15TEXTEX1@ATHATH2
Apr 16TEXTEX5@ATHATH6
Apr 16TEXTEX9@ATHATH6
Apr 25ATHATH8@TEXTEX1
Apr 25ATHATH3@TEXTEX4
Apr 26ATHATH2@TEXTEX1
Aug 15TEXTEX@ATHATHupcoming
Aug 16TEXTEX@ATHATHupcoming
Aug 16TEXTEX@ATHATHupcoming
Sep 1ATHATH@TEXTEXupcoming
Sep 2ATHATH@TEXTEXupcoming
Sep 2ATHATH@TEXTEXupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX-12656%
ATHATH+10449%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 1st Inning

TEXTEX
J. Burger

J. Burger

1B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.600 OPS

N. Eovaldi

N. Eovaldi

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

ATHATH
M. Muncy

M. Muncy

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

L. Severino

L. Severino

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TEX beat ATH 8-1. Burger's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 1st Inning · 3-0
+21pp→ 78% WP

Burger · homered to center (417 feet), Carter scored and Seager scored.

TEXTop 3rd Inning · 4-0
+7pp→ 88% WP

Burger · homered to right (382 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX3010000408
ATH0000000101

Period scoring

TEX won 3 · ATH won 0

3
0

Inn 1

Burger 3

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Burger 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

4
1

Inn 8

Smith 2

Butler 1

0
0

Inn 9

TEX
ATH

Play-by-play · 547 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  2. B9

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  3. B9

    Hernaiz grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  6. B9

    Luis Curvelo pitches to Darell Hernaiz

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  7. B9

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  8. B9

    McNeil popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  11. B9

    Luis Curvelo pitches to Jeff McNeil

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  12. B9

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  13. B9

    Wilson lined out to left.

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  16. B9

    Luis Curvelo pitches to Jacob Wilson

    ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  17. B9

    Duran in right field.

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  18. B9

    Haggerty in left field.

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  19. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  20. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  21. T9

    · ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  22. T9

    Higashioka lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  27. T9

    Luis Medina pitches to Kyle Higashioka

    · ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  28. T9

    · ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  29. T9

    Pederson grounded out to first, Burger to third.

    · ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 8·ATH 1

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

8

Runs

1

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

19

TB

8

2

HR

1

5

BB

2

12

K

8

17

LOB

10

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 8.5·TEX -126/ATH +104

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam Haggerty— · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

ATH vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.5low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    5.8± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.6± 3.6low

Hits

  • Jacob WilsonATH
    1.2± 0.6high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Shea LangeliersATH
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Shea LangeliersATH
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Elias DiazTEX
    0.7± 1.1low

Earned runs

  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    3.2± 2.4low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    2.9± 2.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.1%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    53.6%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(ATH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.1%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.