HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBEnd 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -6.5pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -48.3pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:51 - 4th
    TOR 76@WSH 81
    +27.6pppeak
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3LAD
SF

SF

76-78

3
6
LAD

LAD

87-67

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,037 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SF

SF

league avg

LAD

LAD

.728

OPS

.715

▶

.789

.309

OBP

.319

▶

.347

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

4.55

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.28

1.41

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.09

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

SF 3 · LAD 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF1010001003
LAD010041006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 19·Final/SeriesLAD win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off San Francisco Giants, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1R. RaySF−46.2pp
  2. 2A. PagesLAD+46.1pp
  3. 3T. HernándezLAD+37.7pp

SF · top performer

SF
Christian Koss

Christian Koss

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Miguel Rojas

Miguel Rojas

SS

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosLF
.2575111102
W. AdamesSS
.2264110012
R. Devers1B
.2334000014
M. Chapman3B
.2365121001
W. Flores1B
.2424011001
C. SchmittDH
.2353000011
J. EncarnacionRF
.2133010010
P. BaileyC
.2204010002
D. GilbertCF
.2052000011
- C. Koss2B
.2611010000
Team353831514

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. RaySP
4.25552584
S. BivensRP
1.12110020
M. GageRP
1.0000018
C. SeymourRP
1.00000010
Team8.076626122

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniDH
.2834113101
M. BettsSS
.2604111101
T. HernándezLF
.2443000010
F. Freeman1B
.2934000002
T. Edman2B
.2264000000
M. RojasSS
.2663221100
A. PagesCF
.2813131000
E. Hernández1B
.1922100010
D. RushingC
.1843000002
Team30676326

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. KershawSP
4.14224691
E. HenriquezRP
1.11000322
J. WrobleskiSP
1.12110326
K. YatesRP
1.0000009
T. ScottRP
1.01001223
Team9.0833514171

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • M. Gage
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      67%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·91.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.5 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • K. Yates
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      78%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      22%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Wrobleski
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      60%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

3

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 5-2

Jun 14SFSF6@LADLAD2
Jun 15SFSF5@LADLAD11
Jun 15SFSF4@LADLAD5
Sep 19SFSF1@LADLAD2
Sep 20SFSF3@LADLAD6today
Sep 21SFSF5@LADLAD7
Sep 21SFSF3@LADLAD1

Season series

LAD lead series 8-3

Jun 14SFSF6@LADLAD2
Jun 15SFSF5@LADLAD11
Jun 15SFSF4@LADLAD5
Jul 12LADLAD7@SFSF8
Jul 12LADLAD2@SFSF1
Jul 13LADLAD5@SFSF2
Sep 13LADLAD1@SFSF5
Sep 14LADLAD13@SFSF7
Sep 14LADLAD10@SFSF2
Sep 19SFSF1@LADLAD2
Sep 20SFSF3@LADLAD6today
Sep 21SFSF5@LADLAD7
Sep 21SFSF3@LADLAD1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 38pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SFSF
C. Koss

C. Koss

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
M. Rojas

M. Rojas

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

C. Kershaw

C. Kershaw

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SF 6-3. Ohtani's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (38pp).

Win probability

LAD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 60% WP

Rojas · homered to left center (402 feet).

SFTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+10pp→ 54% WP

Flores · singled to center, Chapman scored.

LADBottom 5th Inning · 2-4
+38pp→ 84% WP

Ohtani · homered to left (370 feet), Pages scored and E. Hernández scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF1010001003
LAD01004100—6

Period scoring

SF won 3 · LAD won 3

1
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Rojas 1

1
0

Inn 3

Flores 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
4

Inn 5

Ohtani 3

0
1

Inn 6

Pages 1

1
0

Inn 7

Chapman 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SF
LAD

Play-by-play · 554 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  2. T9

    Chapman popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  4. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Matt Chapman

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  5. T9

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  6. T9

    Devers struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

    +5pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  14. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Rafael Devers

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  15. T9

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  16. T9

    Adames walked, Koss to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

    −5pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  24. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Willy Adames

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  25. T9

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  26. T9

    Ramos struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

    +3pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·LAD 6

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

3

Runs

6

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

13

TB

19

1

HR

3

5

BB

2

14

K

6

24

LOB

5

Player projections

LAD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.0low
  • Landen RouppSF
    5.9± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.5± 3.7low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.7± 1.1high
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.5± 0.5high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.8± 1.7high
  • Matt ChapmanSF
    2.5± 3.7high
  • Bryce EldridgeSF
    2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Matt ChapmanSF
    1.3± 2.4high
  • Ryan WardLAD
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.7low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    59.8%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.1%

    P(LAD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.3%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872